ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[ronjon]

yeah clearly to me that there's an LLC there now tucking nicely under the convection - shear appears to be lowering too. All signs point to slow intensification now.

[Dean4Storms]

pretty evident... convection starting to build back over the center again..

https://s31.postimg.org/dxkpghn7v/GOES1 ... UUNcwd.jpg

Yea, that clearly is the center and it looks very small, the thing is moving so fast it cannot expand its rotation field.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Close to the possible LLC.

[Yellow Evan]

Decreasing numbers for 97L:

North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1145 UTC 17.0N 79.3W T2.5/2.5 97L
02/0545 UTC 16.1N 77.4W T2.5/3.0 97L

FT is still the same (T2.5) though.

[chaser1]

Really? No west wind? I'm even seeing fish, plastic drink cups from Cancun, and a bunch of Mexican bought tourist hats being sucked in from the west, and being pulled into some point under this new bomb of convection - but no... it's not a T.D. or T. S.

[Kazmit]

yeah clearly to me that there's an LLC there now tucking nicely under the convection - shear appears to be lowering too. All signs point to slow intensification now.

I've noticed the LLC as well. I'll be surprised if it isn't Earl by the 2pm update.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021415
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 26 20160802
140500 1744N 08033W 9776 00316 0132 +253 +184 083027 028 023 000 00
140530 1743N 08032W 9772 00320 0133 +250 +184 081028 029 023 000 00
140600 1741N 08032W 9773 00318 0133 +252 +185 078030 030 022 000 00
140630 1740N 08032W 9772 00320 0133 +249 +186 082031 031 021 000 00
140700 1738N 08032W 9772 00320 0133 +248 +186 083032 032 022 000 03
140730 1737N 08032W 9774 00316 0133 +247 +187 085032 032 021 000 00
140800 1735N 08032W 9772 00320 0133 +245 +187 083028 030 020 000 00
140830 1733N 08032W 9770 00320 0132 +244 +187 082026 027 019 000 00
140900 1732N 08032W 9773 00316 0132 +240 +187 083023 025 018 001 00
140930 1730N 08032W 9772 00318 0132 +242 +186 081024 025 020 000 00
141000 1729N 08032W 9772 00317 0131 +243 +186 080023 024 021 000 00
141030 1727N 08032W 9774 00315 0130 +242 +186 080021 022 020 000 00
141100 1726N 08032W 9773 00314 0130 +238 +185 076019 020 021 000 00
141130 1724N 08032W 9774 00314 0130 +244 +186 084020 020 018 000 00
141200 1722N 08032W 9770 00318 0130 +246 +186 081024 027 021 001 00
141230 1721N 08031W 9774 00314 0129 +248 +186 079026 027 022 000 00
141300 1719N 08031W 9771 00316 0129 +247 +186 078026 027 022 000 00
141330 1718N 08031W 9772 00317 0130 +245 +187 072025 027 021 001 00
141400 1716N 08031W 9775 00314 0130 +245 +188 072025 026 022 001 00
141430 1715N 08031W 9772 00316 0128 +245 +188 072025 027 023 000 00
$$

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity has certainly increased. The ball of convection we saw yesterday was always expected to collapse due to it being more mid-level driven. What is pretty certain is that this system is gradually organizing and should get named once it is approaching Central America:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

[USTropics]

Saved loop. Definitely looks like an LLC on the western side, under the convection:

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021425
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 27 20160802
141500 1713N 08031W 9772 00315 0127 +245 +188 074025 027 024 000 00
141530 1711N 08030W 9774 00311 0127 +246 +189 074025 028 025 000 00
141600 1710N 08030W 9769 00316 0126 +245 +189 072026 028 026 000 00
141630 1708N 08030W 9768 00315 0127 +245 +190 071025 027 027 000 00
141700 1707N 08029W 9774 00312 0127 +245 +190 075028 029 028 000 00
141730 1705N 08029W 9780 00307 0127 +241 +190 074027 028 026 000 00
141800 1704N 08028W 9771 00315 0127 +240 +190 077030 030 026 000 00
141830 1702N 08028W 9772 00312 0126 +240 +190 078031 032 024 001 00
141900 1701N 08028W 9773 00310 0124 +240 +189 077031 032 024 001 00
141930 1659N 08027W 9772 00310 0124 +236 +188 078029 031 025 000 00
142000 1658N 08027W 9771 00311 0125 +232 +188 079028 032 026 000 00
142030 1656N 08026W 9772 00310 0123 +235 +187 083032 033 028 001 00
142100 1655N 08026W 9771 00310 0123 +234 +185 081028 031 027 001 00
142130 1654N 08025W 9774 00305 0120 +236 +183 081031 032 023 002 00
142200 1652N 08025W 9772 00305 0118 +238 +183 081029 033 025 000 00
142230 1651N 08024W 9773 00304 0117 +240 +182 076030 031 028 000 00
142300 1649N 08024W 9769 00306 0116 +240 +183 073029 030 024 001 00
142330 1648N 08024W 9772 00303 0116 +240 +184 071029 030 025 001 00
142400 1646N 08023W 9772 00301 0115 +240 +184 072029 031 026 001 00
142430 1645N 08023W 9771 00303 0116 +240 +185 073031 033 026 001 00

[cycloneye]

[chaser1]

New convection is just exploding over and to the east of Tropical Wave Earl

[Yellow Evan]

00z Euro has a developed hurricane making landfall in Belize, I'm not buying it one bit!

From what Alyono posted about the earlier Euro run, this one too can probably be scrapped as this still isn't closed (or wasn't at the time the data was input) yet it initialized it as such anyway.

Like earlier in the season and in the East Pacific the Euro is being too aggressive with systems this year.

No it hasn't been too bullish, and with the favorable upper setup, it's a distinct possiblity, considering it's likely a mid-grade TS at this time.

[JaxGator]

New convection is just exploding over and to the east of Tropical Wave Earl

And just as recon is entering the storm.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021434
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 28 20160802
142500 1643N 08022W 9774 00300 0115 +240 +186 075033 035 027 001 00
142530 1642N 08022W 9766 00307 0115 +238 +186 068032 035 030 001 00
142600 1640N 08022W 9772 00300 0113 +238 +187 069032 033 027 001 00
142630 1638N 08021W 9774 00298 0112 +238 +187 067032 033 029 001 00
142700 1637N 08021W 9771 00301 0112 +238 +187 067032 033 029 000 00
142730 1635N 08021W 9774 00298 0112 +240 +188 065033 036 028 001 00
142800 1634N 08020W 9773 00299 0110 +240 +188 069033 035 029 000 00
142830 1632N 08020W 9765 00303 0108 +238 +188 064033 034 031 001 00
142900 1631N 08019W 9775 00293 0108 +236 +188 061033 034 031 001 00
142930 1629N 08019W 9770 00295 0106 +233 +188 058031 033 030 001 00
143000 1628N 08019W 9772 00293 0104 +234 +188 053033 034 028 002 00
143030 1626N 08018W 9771 00292 0104 +233 +186 053034 036 029 000 00
143100 1624N 08018W 9770 00293 0101 +234 +186 052036 037 029 001 00
143130 1623N 08017W 9773 00288 0100 +235 +186 052037 038 033 001 00
143200 1621N 08017W 9774 00287 0100 +231 +185 053040 041 034 001 00
143230 1620N 08016W 9769 00289 0097 +232 +185 050039 041 034 000 00
143300 1618N 08015W 9818 00244 0097 +234 +185 039038 039 033 000 00
143330 1617N 08015W 9842 00220 0093 +235 +185 039037 038 032 001 03
143400 1615N 08014W 9841 00217 0089 +236 +186 037035 038 033 001 00
143430 1614N 08013W 9846 00213 0087 +239 +187 036034 035 031 002 00

[chaser1]

off topic..but what's that in the NE GOM in the UKMET?

I saw that too. Just checked the 6Z GFS and its shows up there to, albiet (6-12 hr.s later); looks to be a piece of energy off a stalled front that ultimately was pinched off as high pressure to the North is beginning to build. Interestingly as well, the present wave that is really flaring up this a.m. in the far Eastern Atlantic, happens to be very evident in the W. Caribbean at this same time frame as well.

[cycloneye]

Highest winds so far.

041 034 001 00
041 034 000 00

[cycloneye]