ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

although they missed the center a little bit on that pass. they are finding 50 mph winds..

[tarheelprogrammer]

although they missed the center a little bit on that pass. they are finding 50 mph winds..

I thought that was 50 knots.

[Aric Dunn]

although they missed the center a little bit on that pass. they are finding 50 mph winds..

I thought that was 50 knots.

it is. 48 kts is the highest so far which is 55mph .. add a little reduction so 50 mph or so with higher gust so far

[tarheelprogrammer]

although they missed the center a little bit on that pass. they are finding 50 mph winds..

I thought that was 50 knots.

it is. 48 kts is the highest so far which is 55mph .. add a little reduction so 50 mph or so with higher gust so far

Thanks didn't see the actual data.

[JaxGator]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

[BigA]

For a 40 kt tropical storm, Earl has a rather decent inner core structure per recon. There are sharp wind and pressure gradients, and the radius of maximum winds is fairly small. This indicates to me that Earl has the potential to intensify fairly quickly, especially given the and high ocean heat content. For this to occur, though, shear needs to decrease, as forecast by the global models (which was noted in the NHC discussion).

[tarheelprogrammer]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

I'd bet on shear increasing not decreasing.

[Florida1118]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

I'd bet on shear increasing not decreasing.

"Most of the global models show that the upper-level environment should become more favorable with less shear." - NHC Earl Discussion #1

So what are you basing your increasing shear statement on?

[Yellow Evan]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

I'd bet on shear increasing not decreasing.

None of the global models show this.

[tarheelprogrammer]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

I'd bet on shear increasing not decreasing.

"Most of the global models show that the upper-level environment should become more favorable with less shear." - NHC Earl Discussion #1

So what are you basing your increasing shear statement on?

Shear tendency:

[JaxGator]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

I'd bet on shear increasing not decreasing.

It would save lives if it did. For now though, recon is finding stronger winds.

[tarheelprogrammer]

We have Earl. Besides wind shear that's forecasted to decrease some, the ocean heat content (and slower speed) would be enough for possible rapid intensification. Hopefully it stays weak and people in harms way are preparing.

I'd bet on shear increasing not decreasing.

It would save lives if it did. For now though, recon is finding stronger winds.

I sure do hope I am right. Strengthen enough to keep this storm from strengthening much more.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon found some 54kt winds. could go 50 or 55mph right now. Like BigA mentioned the structure looks good and given its size could rapidly intensify.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon found some 54kt winds. could go 50 or 55mph right now. Like BigA mentioned the structure looks good and given its size could rapidly intensify.

Flight level or SFMR?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon found some 54kt winds. could go 50 or 55mph right now. Like BigA mentioned the structure looks good and given its size could rapidly intensify.

Flight level or SFMR?

FL with SFMR from 45 to 48 kts. so 50 to 55mph is about right.

[Kazmit]

Recon found some 54kt winds. could go 50 or 55mph right now. Like BigA mentioned the structure looks good and given its size could rapidly intensify.

Yeah, the NHC forecasts a peak of a 60-65mph TS, but it could easily intensify to a hurricane just before landfall, given the conditions.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Recon found some 54kt winds. could go 50 or 55mph right now. Like BigA mentioned the structure looks good and given its size could rapidly intensify.

Yeah, the NHC forecasts a peak of a 60-65mph TS, but it could easily intensify to a hurricane just before landfall, given the conditions.

If it is strengthening currently 60-65 might be on the low end it is still 42 to 60 hours away from landfall. Have to hope shear does its job.

[floridasun78]

i think it be cat 1 by wed . The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon found some 54kt winds. could go 50 or 55mph right now. Like BigA mentioned the structure looks good and given its size could rapidly intensify.

Flight level or SFMR?

FL with SFMR from 45 to 48 kts. so 50 to 55mph is about right.

54 FL 48 SFMR would support 50 knots.

[JaxGator]

45-55 knot flight level winds so far. Could get 50mph for the next advisory.
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