Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

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Poll: How should NHC handle strong fast moving tropical waves that are producing TS conditions

Poll ended at Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:54 am

Don't initiate advisories. Handle with strongly worded TWOs/STWOs that mention TS force winds (as they're handled now)
7
16%
Don't initiate advisories. Handle with TS Watches/Warnings (as they'll be handled in the near future)
23
52%
Initiate advisories. Refer to it as a "Tropical Storm Conditions being produced by a strong/fast-moving tropical wave"
11
25%
Initiate advisories. Refer to it as a "Tropical Storm"
3
7%
 
Total votes: 44

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AJC3
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Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#1 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:54 am

This poll is probably about 10+ years in the making, given how much it's been batted around on the forum.

Let's hear your insights. I can add poll options, if someone comes up an idea that differs significantly from the choices above.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#2 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:01 am

Good poll! IMO, can't classify as TD/TS if it doesn't meet criteria... "Special Statement" indicating TW can produce high winds is good enough... Although, you get crazy insurance situations depending on storm classification which I would like to think doesn't influence decisions made by gov't weather bureau's... :D
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#3 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:49 am

This wave / storm is obviously driven by tropical forcing and I've never understood the LLC required for an initial upgrade, seems arbitrary. Certainly a storm with an LLC is more stable and potentially will last longer but if damage can be just as severe if not worse with a vigorous tropical wave.

I think the definition of TD needs to be expanded to not include LLC so advisories can be issued. The ability to issue watches and warnings prior to "formation" may handle this just as well, if not better.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#4 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:37 pm

well... lets just say NHC is lagging big time behind private industry.

The private sector has been issuing advisories on Earl for several days. NHC could simply refer to the system as Invest 97L and issue advisories on that
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#5 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:42 pm

tolakram wrote:This wave / storm is obviously driven by tropical forcing and I've never understood the LLC required for an initial upgrade, seems arbitrary. Certainly a storm with an LLC is more stable and potentially will last longer but if damage can be just as severe if not worse with a vigorous tropical wave.

I think the definition of TD needs to be expanded to not include LLC so advisories can be issued. The ability to issue watches and warnings prior to "formation" may handle this just as well, if not better.


The thing is, using the criterion of a closed surface LL or FL wind center is only way to explicitly verify a TC with observations (recon/METAR/scatterometer). You'd open up a YUGE can of worms if you expand the definition of a TC. If you think people complain about NHC being inconsistently subjective about initiating systems now (e.g. extent of central convection, the whole XTC/STC/TC issue) boy oh boy, expand the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone/depression when it comes to surface winds, and just wait and see what would happen. Closed isovort lines (vorticity centers) exist in every open tropical wave, so it would beg the question "Where do you draw the line?" Any open wave or MCS pushing off Africa that produces TS or near TS force winds? Half closed at the surface? 3/4 closed? Something that has a cusp?
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#6 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:55 pm

I would say issue watches/warnings, along with maybe some form of the old Special Tropical Disturbance Statement they used to do, but stop short of initiating formal advisories.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:00 pm

Hammy wrote:I would say issue watches/warnings, along with maybe some form of the old Special Tropical Disturbance Statement they used to do, but stop short of initiating formal advisories.


+1
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:19 pm

AJC3 wrote:
tolakram wrote:This wave / storm is obviously driven by tropical forcing and I've never understood the LLC required for an initial upgrade, seems arbitrary. Certainly a storm with an LLC is more stable and potentially will last longer but if damage can be just as severe if not worse with a vigorous tropical wave.

I think the definition of TD needs to be expanded to not include LLC so advisories can be issued. The ability to issue watches and warnings prior to "formation" may handle this just as well, if not better.


The thing is, using the criterion of a closed surface LL or FL wind center is only way to explicitly verify a TC with observations (recon/METAR/scatterometer). You'd open up a YUGE can of worms if you expand the definition of a TC. If you think people complain about NHC being inconsistently subjective about initiating systems now (e.g. extent of central convection, the whole XTC/STC/TC issue) boy oh boy, expand the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone/depression when it comes to surface winds, and just wait and see what would happen. Closed isovort lines (vorticity centers) exist in every open tropical wave, so it would beg the question "Where do you draw the line?" Any open wave or MCS pushing off Africa that produces TS or near TS force winds? Half closed at the surface? 3/4 closed? Something that has a cusp?


This. The classification of TC's is already fairly subjective and to remove the closed circulation criteria would make it much worse.

Media is already using the Invest terminology now, why shouldn't NHC follow suit and issue 6-hr (front-page level) updates and appropriate advisories on Invests?
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#9 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:39 pm

I would agree with the majority in issuing Watches and Warnings despite no upgrade. For the population in the track of the storm, it won't matter much to them whether it has a surface circulation or not.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#10 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:00 am

This is how I look at it...if it doesn't meet criteria to be a TC, then it isn't a TC. However, if it is within 72 hours of impacting land, and is tagged as an Invest, then they should at least put out a track or impact map a couple of times a day (00Z and 12Z?), along with a corresponding short briefing...and if it has a high chance of becoming a TC, the watches/warnings need to be issued as appropriate.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#11 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:56 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the NHC going to be issuing advisories for code red disturbances if they warrant issuing TS/H watches/warnings? I know w Bill last year, there was confusion, because a tropical storm was expected to make landfall, but there wasn't yet a TS, and there were no warnings. Imagine if a storm like the Perfect Storm happened today. They'd track it for days, anticipating that it would become tropical. In this scenario, they should issue advisories in tandem w tropical storm warnings, in advance of the formation of a storm.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#12 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:05 am

Hurricanehink wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the NHC going to be issuing advisories for code red disturbances if they warrant issuing TS/H watches/warnings? I know w Bill last year, there was confusion, because a tropical storm was expected to make landfall, but there wasn't yet a TS, and there were no warnings. Imagine if a storm like the Perfect Storm happened today. They'd track it for days, anticipating that it would become tropical. In this scenario, they should issue advisories in tandem w tropical storm warnings, in advance of the formation of a storm.


While it's been going on in-house, unless something has changed in the last couple weeks, nothing final has been conveyed to the field offices about that becoming operational in 2017.
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#13 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:05 am

This is the latest and greatest that I could find....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160307_p ... hanges.pdf
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Re: Poll: How should NHC handle strong, fast-moving tropical waves?

#14 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:08 pm

AJC3 wrote:This is the latest and greatest that I could find....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160307_p ... hanges.pdf


Great link! I can't wait til that policy is operational. There have been many storms that didn't get advisories because of the lack of circulation, but are certainly plenty threatening.
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