Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

[JaxGator]

Recent ASCAT pass of 96L.
http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/a ... 4_flag.gif

[cycloneye]

[Tweet]Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 500 miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde islands is poorly organized. This system is moving
slowly westward, and development appears to be unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent[/Tweet]

[Kazmit]

96L is dying. It should no longer be a concern. 97L is the one to look out for now, it's at 30%/60% now, and forecast to track into the western caribbean and/or the GOM. Here, it could really develop into something scary.

[JaxGator]

96L is dying. It should no longer be a concern. 97L is the one to look out for now, it's at 30%/60% now, and forecast to track into the western caribbean and/or the GOM. Here, it could really develop into something scary.

Not a concern now anyway, but it could still be trouble down the road.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

96L is dying. It should no longer be a concern. 97L is the one to look out for now, it's at 30%/60% now, and forecast to track into the western caribbean and/or the GOM. Here, it could really develop into something scary.

yeah i tend to agree with jaxgator, even its low chances now doesnt mean it wont suddenly burst and reform in the better conditions. the GEFS mean model for pressure shows 97 hitting mx/tx border area and 96 behind over the islands slightly more north than where 97 is right now.

[chaser1]

Dying? I dont think so. 96L might just be playing hide and seek with the ITCZ

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should
continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I agree about these statements about 96L dying off? Quite the contrary. 96L has bursted over the past 12-24 hours out there. I would not take my eye off 96L in any circumstance. 96L may be finding better environment ahead, especially once the system gets west of 50 degrees Longitude. The Carribean Islands needs to watch 96L in the next 5 to7 days.

[NDG]

Yeah, I agree about these statements about 96L dying off? Quite the contrary. 96L has bursted over the past 12-24 hours out there. I would not take my eye off 96L in any circumstance. 96L may be finding better environment ahead, especially once the system gets west of 50 degrees Longitude. The Carribean Islands needs to watch 96L in the next 5 to7 days.

Yes I agree, I don't see the energy dying off, something to watch unless it gets absorbed down the road by the next TW exiting Africa.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Florida needs to watch this imo...

[znel52]

Yeah I personally wouldn't bring out bones just yet. The energy is still there could be trouble down the road.

[AutoPenalti]

Too early for Florida to watch but it indeed does seem to be picking up energy, recent SAT showed increased convection trying to wrap at the mid levels.

[colbroe]

Looks like it is making a return .

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

Very broad midlevel circulation with a hint of a cyclonic twist... Some convection popping... A long way from coming back, but it's happened before...

[chaser1]

I"m curious if convective activitiy seems minimal due to pressure heights or more due to SAL related drying air?

[colbroe]

You can see clearly a rotation.

[Alyono]

this is looking very well organized this morning

[TheStormExpert]

Could they reactivate the Invest @ 2pm when the next TWO comes out?

Time will tell!

[Nimbus]

97L didn't start picking up convection till after it reached -53 w but the SAL looks like it has diminished a little. Doubt they will reactivate the invest till later in the week, but you never know.

[gatorcane]

The GFS while doesn't develop this, shows a mini-anticyclone building overtop and moving in tandem with it over the next several days.