ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

i think it be cat 1 by wed . The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Please tell us why you think it will be CAT1. Perhaps you have some information that others do not that would help us understand why you think this.

[NDG]

This thing been Earl since at least yesterday afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

next couple passes before 2 pm should be enough to increase winds to 55 mph.

[floridasun78]

i think it be cat 1 by wed . The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Please tell us why you think it will be CAT1. Perhaps you have some information that others do not that would help us understand why you think this.

shear low east of Yucatan and warmest water in topical in area nw Caribbean

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/760515039908417536

[Alyono]

pressure actually rose by a few mb between passes

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

[cycloneye]

[tarheelprogrammer]

i think it be cat 1 by wed . The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Please tell us why you think it will be CAT1. Perhaps you have some information that others do not that would help us understand why you think this.

shear low east of Yucatan and warmest water in topical in area nw Caribbean

Shear is not low but it is not storm killing. It is just a problem for the storm's development.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021715
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 44 20160802
170500 1651N 08119W 8430 01586 0120 +169 +116 081031 031 028 000 00
170530 1650N 08118W 8433 01584 0119 +171 +116 080030 031 028 000 00
170600 1649N 08117W 8431 01586 0117 +171 +118 078029 030 030 000 00
170630 1648N 08115W 8428 01586 0118 +166 +120 077028 029 030 001 00
170700 1647N 08114W 8433 01580 0116 +170 +121 076028 029 031 001 00
170730 1646N 08113W 8432 01582 0116 +170 +123 076028 028 033 000 00
170800 1645N 08112W 8430 01582 0113 +170 +124 076028 030 031 000 00
170830 1644N 08111W 8431 01582 0114 +169 +125 074031 031 030 000 00
170900 1643N 08110W 8430 01581 0110 +173 +126 073029 030 030 000 00
170930 1642N 08109W 8433 01577 0106 +178 +127 072030 030 030 000 00
171000 1641N 08108W 8432 01579 0106 +175 +127 071032 032 030 001 00
171030 1640N 08106W 8428 01580 0107 +172 +128 073033 033 032 000 00
171100 1639N 08105W 8430 01577 0107 +170 +129 068032 033 031 001 00
171130 1637N 08104W 8437 01569 0102 +175 +130 068034 035 032 000 00
171200 1636N 08103W 8429 01576 0100 +177 +130 069034 035 032 000 00
171230 1635N 08102W 8427 01576 0098 +177 +130 066032 033 032 001 00
171300 1634N 08101W 8431 01569 0092 +182 +131 064035 036 032 000 00
171330 1633N 08100W 8433 01566 0089 +185 +132 060036 037 034 000 03
171400 1632N 08059W 8438 01560 0086 +190 +133 060038 039 036 000 00
171430 1631N 08057W 8434 01563 0087 +183 +135 064039 040 036 000 00
$$
;

[srainhoutx]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure actually rose by a few mb between passes

They missed the center slightly.. sfmr was 20 to 25kts.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

Or 2005, and 2010.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

Of course there are exceptions to every rule. However, for the most part was put in my sentence. Either way shear is causing the LLC to become partly exposed. This has been a major problem for storms lately in this basin.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon about to do another center pass.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

Or 2005, and 2010.

11 years is more like 10.5 years. I rounded shame on me lol.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear is not low but it is not storm killing. It is just a problem for the storm's development.

The GFS has been forecasting low shear tomorrow, as Earl will be underneath anticyclonic flow aloft.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

Of course there are exceptions to every rule. However, for the most part was put in my sentence. Either way shear is causing the LLC to become partly exposed. This has been a major problem for storms lately in this basin.

however this is slightly different. its not mid of upper level shear its actually quite low. this is all low level shear .. kind of self induced from its forward motion.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

Of course there are exceptions to every rule. However, for the most part was put in my sentence. Either way shear is causing the LLC to become partly exposed. This has been a major problem for storms lately in this basin.

however this is slightly different. its not mid of upper level shear its actually quite low. this is all low level shear .. kind of self induced from its forward motion.

That is true but still shear is shear lol I think and this storm is even creating its own. Let us see what the center pass shows.

[Florida1118]

Looks like LLC is about to become exposed. Classical Atlantic storm for the past 11 years for the most part. It keeps trying to fire convection but its speed and the wind shear around it are hindering it.

Wrong. How quickly we forget the 2008 Season.

Of course there are exceptions to every rule. However, for the most part was put in my sentence. Either way shear is causing the LLC to become partly exposed. This has been a major problem for storms lately in this basin.

Yes, there is shear in the basin from time to time. It is to be expected. Not every storm is going to blossom into a Wilma. I think to say that it has been an 11 year "issue" is asinine; it's never going to stop, and it certainly has been an "issue" in every season since records began.