ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1001 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:08 pm

REcon so far.. next set will be center pass.

already pressure 998mb with 53kt wind in the NW quad. NE likely to be higher. pressure probably 996 ish
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Re: ATL: EARL - Recon

#1002 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:09 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 022105
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 18 20160802
205530 1658N 08149W 6970 03179 0066 +103 +083 068022 022 029 000 00
205600 1656N 08149W 6960 03184 0060 +105 +080 065022 022 030 000 00
205630 1654N 08149W 6958 03190 0058 +106 +085 065022 023 033 000 00
205700 1651N 08149W 6959 03188 0056 +107 +088 061024 025 031 001 00
205730 1649N 08149W 6958 03189 0054 +109 +082 052025 026 034 000 00
205800 1647N 08149W 6961 03185 0055 +109 +084 043026 027 032 002 00
205830 1645N 08149W 6961 03184 0054 +107 +085 046025 026 035 002 00
205900 1644N 08147W 6957 03183 0046 +110 +080 047026 026 038 000 00
205930 1642N 08145W 6960 03183 0044 +114 +079 042026 027 035 000 00
210000 1641N 08144W 6959 03182 0041 +116 +074 035027 027 034 000 00
210030 1640N 08142W 6959 03181 0037 +119 +074 033027 027 034 000 00
210100 1638N 08140W 6958 03180 0034 +120 +076 035026 026 035 000 00
210130 1637N 08138W 6958 03180 0029 +121 +076 035024 024 036 000 00
210200 1635N 08137W 6959 03174 0023 +122 +076 038024 025 037 001 00
210230 1634N 08135W 6959 03177 0038 +112 +085 053025 027 042 000 00
210300 1633N 08133W 6956 03178 0033 +114 +090 062027 028 044 000 00
210330 1632N 08132W 6958 03174 0026 +118 +099 066031 033 042 001 00
210400 1630N 08131W 6968 03161 0016 +123 +090 054029 031 045 001 00
210430 1628N 08130W 6959 03171 0005 +133 +079 046024 025 050 001 00
210500 1626N 08129W 6961 03159 9986 +143 +061 032024 025 053 001 00


Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Recon

#1003 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:17 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 022115
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 19 20160802
210530 1624N 08128W 6961 03161 9989 +141 +068 018023 024 051 002 00
210600 1622N 08127W 6959 03166 9986 +144 +071 017022 023 037 001 00
210630 1620N 08125W 6957 03164 9981 +145 +080 013019 020 034 000 00
210700 1619N 08123W 6960 03156 9976 +145 +088 004016 017 036 000 00
210730 1617N 08122W 6957 03156 9980 +137 +096 329008 011 035 001 00
210800 1616N 08120W 6959 03154 9996 +121 +107 136008 015 038 004 00
210830 1614N 08119W 6972 03142 0006 +117 +109 133015 017 035 005 03
210900 1612N 08118W 6958 03162 0008 +117 +106 152004 007 035 002 03
210930 1610N 08118W 6960 03160 0011 +118 +103 306003 004 037 000 00
211000 1608N 08118W 6951 03172 0010 +117 +108 284008 013 035 000 00
211030 1606N 08118W 6958 03161 0013 +114 +098 282019 020 035 001 00
211100 1604N 08118W 6952 03171 0020 +112 +086 278021 022 033 000 00
211130 1602N 08118W 6954 03172 0028 +109 +088 274019 020 032 000 00
211200 1559N 08118W 6954 03175 0034 +107 +089 271020 021 032 002 00
211230 1557N 08118W 6958 03174 0046 +098 +088 262021 022 033 004 00
211300 1555N 08118W 6954 03176 0045 +099 +087 268022 023 033 001 00
211330 1553N 08118W 6951 03177 0044 +099 +083 269021 021 029 001 00
211400 1551N 08118W 6952 03180 0044 +102 +080 272020 020 027 000 00
211430 1549N 08118W 6953 03186 0051 +101 +082 275018 019 025 000 00
211500 1547N 08118W 6954 03187 0054 +101 +085 275015 016 024 000 00


Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1004 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:19 pm

997mb but the missed the center by quite a bit. sfmr at lowest reading was 36kts. pretty far from center..
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Re: ATL: EARL - Recon

#1005 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:29 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 022125
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 20 20160802
211530 1545N 08118W 6954 03188 0054 +104 +084 288014 015 021 001 00
211600 1543N 08118W 6953 03190 0052 +105 +084 287011 013 020 000 00
211630 1540N 08118W 6955 03186 0054 +101 +087 254008 009 017 000 00
211700 1538N 08118W 6954 03188 0059 +099 +087 237010 010 018 002 00
211730 1536N 08118W 6955 03185 0058 +098 +087 237008 009 021 005 00
211800 1534N 08118W 6947 03196 0052 +103 +097 247010 012 029 002 00
211830 1532N 08118W 6958 03182 0055 +103 +082 267008 009 024 000 00
211900 1530N 08118W 6957 03188 0057 +103 +075 278011 013 022 000 00
211930 1528N 08118W 6954 03188 0055 +102 +087 267011 012 022 000 00
212000 1526N 08118W 6954 03193 0060 +103 +084 280010 010 020 000 00
212030 1524N 08118W 6958 03191 0060 +105 +081 286011 011 020 000 00
212100 1521N 08118W 6955 03193 0060 +106 +078 286012 013 019 000 00
212130 1519N 08118W 6958 03192 0060 +106 +081 288012 013 018 000 00
212200 1517N 08118W 6955 03191 0056 +106 +085 291010 011 013 000 00
212230 1515N 08118W 6956 03191 0057 +106 +083 293010 013 013 000 00
212300 1513N 08118W 6956 03195 0063 +104 +077 296015 017 014 000 00
212330 1511N 08118W 6958 03194 0064 +105 +075 307017 018 016 001 00
212400 1508N 08118W 6958 03194 0064 +104 +076 309019 020 023 003 00
212430 1506N 08118W 6940 03209 0053 +106 +103 268017 020 022 005 00
212500 1504N 08118W 6963 03173 0048 +105 +101 260017 019 021 008 00


Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Recon

#1006 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:37 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 022135
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 21 20160802
212530 1502N 08118W 6946 03194 0051 +101 +097 283012 014 022 003 00
212600 1500N 08119W 6958 03184 0057 +100 +096 288019 021 020 003 00
212630 1458N 08119W 6949 03196 0062 +099 +091 280019 021 018 001 00
212700 1456N 08119W 6963 03183 0069 +097 +086 256018 019 022 000 00
212730 1454N 08119W 6961 03185 0071 +095 +091 247017 017 020 002 00
212800 1452N 08120W 6959 03185 0067 +096 +086 244017 017 020 002 00
212830 1450N 08120W 6957 03190 0066 +099 +077 252016 016 019 002 03
212900 1447N 08119W 6955 03193 0067 +100 +076 250015 015 017 000 00
212930 1445N 08119W 6954 03194 0075 +098 +059 247015 015 016 000 00
213000 1444N 08118W 6958 03192 0072 +100 +065 253014 015 016 000 03
213030 1445N 08116W 6958 03191 0075 +094 +069 240013 014 013 001 03
213100 1446N 08114W 6956 03190 0079 +091 +065 232014 015 020 000 00
213130 1447N 08112W 6952 03198 0076 +098 +059 237015 015 022 000 00
213200 1448N 08109W 6957 03195 0073 +098 +069 227016 018 021 000 00
213230 1449N 08107W 6958 03190 0078 +092 +062 224020 021 022 002 00
213300 1450N 08105W 6958 03188 0080 +090 +061 213021 022 018 001 00
213330 1451N 08103W 6954 03190 0073 +094 +057 216022 022 022 000 00
213400 1452N 08101W 6957 03191 0076 +092 +057 213025 026 023 000 00
213430 1453N 08059W 6953 03194 0076 +091 +075 211026 026 025 000 00
213500 1454N 08057W 6957 03188 0072 +092 +085 204027 028 023 001 00
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1007 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:00 pm

Earl will find the sweet spot in the bottom of the BOC bowl... Circulation will be half on half off shore and strengthen... Just watch!!
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1008 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:03 pm

Blown Away wrote:Earl will find the sweet spot in the bottom of the BOC bowl... Circulation will be half on half off shore and strengthen... Just watch!!


Aren't the waters somewhat shallow there?
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1009 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:07 pm

Earl's convection seems to be expanding quite a bit in the past couple of hours. Looks to my eyes like he is getting better organized.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1010 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:07 pm

you cannot use extra pressures from the NOAA planes

found 1003mb, with 39 kt surface winds. Probably 1000mb
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1011 Postby JaxGator » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:12 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:Earl's convection seems to be expanding quite a bit in the past couple of hours. Looks to my eyes like he is getting better organized.


Yep, looks that way.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#1012 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:20 pm

18z GFS finally wakes up with Earl. :lol:

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Recon - Discussion

#1013 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:20 pm

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/760599688571719680


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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1014 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:30 pm

IDK if someone has mention how much the wind field has grown just since this morning but it has, a lot.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1015 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:41 pm

There haven't been any recent microwave passes, but luckily we have the onboard radar on the NOAA plane going around Earl right now to provide a look at the internal structure of the tropical storm.

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1016 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:55 pm

recon found some pretty high SFMR ... 71, 66,61 no flags. flight level low though..

222030 1617N 08145W 6951 03133 9966 +119 +115 078003 008 041 023 03
222100 1618N 08147W 6968 03123 9973 +118 //// 023032 048 058 038 01
222130 1618N 08149W 6969 03117 9944 +148 +080 354036 041 071 015 00
222200 1618N 08151W 6949 03156 9966 +140 +070 010036 038 066 002 00
222230 1618N 08154W 6930 03188 9977 +141 +059 012042 044 061 006 00
222300 1618N 08156W 6957 03160 0001 +126 +073 011042 045 054 001 00
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1017 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:02 pm

:uarrow: I was just looking at that, sounds like it's not stack correctly. Possibily?
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1018 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:02 pm

those winds are bogus
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1019 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:03 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:There haven't been any recent microwave passes, but luckily we have the onboard radar on the NOAA plane going around Earl right now to provide a look at the internal structure of the tropical storm.

Image


Convection is blowing up now. hard to tel from that radar but appears to be wrapping to the nw side now.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1020 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:08 pm

pressure down to 997 per recon. with this current burst the next pass and when the airforce ( 30 min or so it arrives) plane arrives pressure should be even lower. winds will come up soon after.
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