ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

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   AL, 05, 2016080300,   , BEST,   0, 164N,  823W,  50,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,   80,   40,    0,   60, 1008,  120,  20,  60,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,       EARL, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 010,

[NDG]

Funny how the same people that were saying no TS development over the Caribbean are the same people that now are saying no hurricane status before Earl comes ashore over Belize tomorrow night.
Like I have been saying for the past few weeks, the Caribbean this year is nothing like the last couple of years'.
How many times have we seen storms rapidly strengthen in this area before, more than not.

[TheStormExpert]

New quick video discussion by Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/760644112366313472

[NDG]

Seems to be developing an eye like feature.

[TheStormExpert]

Earl has to be now a 55-60kt TS.

[hurricanes1234]

Seems to be developing an eye like feature.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/A ... W.48pc.jpg

Oh no

I hope those people in its path are prepared.

I think the chances of a hurricane from this may not be far off because it's strengthening faster than expected and still has time over water...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[latitude_20]

My girlfriend lives in Chan Chemuyil, Mexico. She is reporting intermittent heavy thunderstorms.

[Kazmit]

The probability of a hurricane is increasing, overnight it could intensify further if conditions are favorable. Let's see what the 11pm advisory brings us. It certainly looks better than this morning, and a closed center is much more apparent on satellite imagery.

[TheStormExpert]

Thankfully Earl will not be tracking over the area in the NW Caribbean with the most ocean heat content, but waters are still plenty warm enough to allow decent strengthening.

[NDG]

Deep warm waters are only good for a tropical system if it stalls out or moves very slowly, otherwise there would not been much major hurricanes forming over the EPAC.

[Bocadude85]

Looking much better organized this evening, convection is waning a little however. I'd say there is a decent chance of a hurricane before landfall in Belize.

[Kazmit]

Interestingly... some models even show Earl emerging into the EPac

[Hammy]

GFS uses MSLP but the central pressure doesn't show up on the surface pressure, anyone with higher resolution maps know what the landfall intensity is?

[Hammy]

Looking much better organized this evening, convection is waning a little however. I'd say there is a decent chance of a hurricane before landfall in Belize.

What's causing the convection to seemingly collapse? Doesn't seem shear-related in this case unless it's undercutting the outflow.

[SeGaBob]

I wouldn't be shocked if it became a major hurricane if it keeps on. (Or at least a cat 2 anyway)



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Kazmit]

Wikipedia already has a page for Earl.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Earl_(2016)

[Medtronic15]

‏@NWS
Tropical Storm #Earl could bring isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 16 inches to Mexico and Belize.

[NDG]

Looking much better organized this evening, convection is waning a little however. I'd say there is a decent chance of a hurricane before landfall in Belize.

What's causing the convection to seemingly collapse? Doesn't seem shear-related in this case unless it's undercutting the outflow.

Time of the day, normal.

[TheAustinMan]

Looking much better organized this evening, convection is waning a little however. I'd say there is a decent chance of a hurricane before landfall in Belize.

What's causing the convection to seemingly collapse? Doesn't seem shear-related in this case unless it's undercutting the outflow.

The low-level circulation appears to be displaced from the mid-level circulation, from what I can tell based on microwave imagery.

[Hammy]

I wouldn't be shocked if it became a major hurricane if it keeps on. (Or at least a cat 2 anyway)



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

http://i.imgur.com/1CptyJ3.jpg Ernesto 2012 (which ironically I kept erroneously calling Earl at the time)
http://i.imgur.com/yNxXX4u.jpg Earl a few hours ago.

Ernesto could be a good analog, it's about the same place as Ernesto was 24 hours before landfall. Ernesto's upper air pattern seemed to be better but Earl seems to be more convectively active with a better organized inner core.

Is the next plane arriving around 5:30 if I've read the recon page correctly?