BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016
...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Belize has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Belize City southward
to the Belize/Guatemala border. The government of Mexico has
changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48
hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass
just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then
be very near the Belize coast early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane
before it makes landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by Wednesday night or
early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in
portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
Wednesday night or early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016
Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had
fallen to 996 mb or even lower. Therefore the intensity was
increased to 50 kt. Some higher surface wind speeds were reported
from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have
been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better
organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite
images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected
track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls
for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This is in close
agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above
the model consensus. Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes
landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3
days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay
of Campeche.
Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is
estimated to be 280/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. A large
and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system
centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical
cyclone from moving significantly northward. The official forecast
track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former
model's track to the north of the latter one. This is fairly
similar to the previous NHC forecast.
The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a
hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
