ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[tatertawt24]

Eye spy?

http://i.imgur.com/zNwIOM3.jpg

That warm spot is actually the updraft of a prominent overshoot. It's coupled with the cold spot adjacent to it and referred to as an enhanced V signature, although it doesn't really form a V in a low shear tropical environment.

Thank God that wasn't a pinhole eye forming. It looked like Opal in that one picture.

[Aric Dunn]

holy hot tower on that thing.. -80 to 90 tops.. geez..

[mobilebay]

What time is the next recon going in? I can't find it

[Aric Dunn]

What time is the next recon going in? I can't find it

taking off at 2am est I believe. will be there for the 5am advisory.

[Hurricaneman]

holy hot tower on that thing.. -80 to 90 tops.. geez..

yep, this could be a hurricane by the time recon shows up maybe as high as 85mph by that time

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[mobilebay]

What time is the next recon going in? I can't find it

taking off at 2am est I believe. will be there for the 5am advisory.

Thank you so much!

[Hammy]

holy hot tower on that thing.. -80 to 90 tops.. geez..

yep, this could be a hurricane by the time recon shows up maybe as high as 85mph by that time

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

There still appears to be a bit of shear--it's not really wrapping around much. I'd guess 70 mph then possibly hurricane by tomorrow afternoon/evening, probably strengthening just before landfall.

[wflamholtz]

holy hot tower on that thing.. -80 to 90 tops.. geez..

yep, this could be a hurricane by the time recon shows up maybe as high as 85mph by that time

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

There still appears to be a bit of shear--it's not really wrapping around much. I'd guess 70 mph then possibly hurricane by tomorrow afternoon/evening, probably strengthening just before landfall.

I think shear isn't doing much anymore, it looks like the centers have stacked and a nice ball of convection has formed.

[stormwise]

looking @ the 0000z i would not be surprised if this is not already or very close to 64kts.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... /wind.html
some past 24hrs frames Storm Centered Winds (Tropical Cyclone Events Only)

[USTropics]

Caught the northern end about an hour ago, definitely looks like a strengthening system:

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, this is a hurricane. No doubt in my mind.

[Aric Dunn]

definitely quiet close to hurricane status now. 5am if recon gets there in time will be interesting.

[Hammy]

Small hole has formed in the center of the convective tower, and this is separate from the updraft warm spot--could be the eye starting to form.

definitely quiet close to hurricane status now. 5am if recon gets there in time will be interesting.

If they find it a hurricane even after 5am they'll likely issue a special advisory, especially as close to land as this is.

[USTropics]

It has been 1379 days (Sandy became a hurricane at 1200 UTC 24 October 2012) since we've seen a Hurricane in the Caribbean.

[USTropics]

It doesn't appear that Earl makes it into the BOC on the 00z ECMWF run, but does show a much stronger storm now at 24 hours. If anyone has access to the hi-res run I'm curious if Earl spends more time over the Gulf of Honduras:

[Hammy]

Shear seems to be on the increase again--the deepest convection is getting out of the center of the CDO and the western side is flattening out a bit.

[USTropics]

NOAA3 - Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Miss Piggy" is on its way to investigate TS Earl this morning;

[weathaguyry]

Wow! Recon just coming into Earl, and already finding 55-60kt winds and pressures of 997, this is a hurricane no doubt

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 030908
NOAA3 0405A EARL HDOB 16 20160803
085900 1632N 08348W 6940 03147 9967 +118 +095 100051 054 051 002 00
085930 1630N 08348W 6946 03133 9950 +125 +108 099052 053 052 003 00
090000 1628N 08348W 6958 03107 9941 +126 +097 092045 048 056 006 00
090030 1626N 08348W 6973 03082 9924 +132 +113 091040 041 058 006 00
090100 1623N 08348W 6943 03116 9917 +137 +091 096028 032 058 003 00
090130 1621N 08347W 6960 03096 9908 +147 +060 090017 018 039 001 00
090200 1619N 08347W 6944 03114 9887 +160 +076 094016 017 021 000 00
090230 1617N 08347W 6953 03101 9881 +170 +046 080006 010 018 000 00
090300 1615N 08347W 6942 03110 9875 +171 +050 311004 006 022 002 00
090330 1613N 08346W 6966 03088 9887 +164 +074 278008 012 036 001 00
090400 1611N 08345W 6972 03085 9926 +137 +074 264016 021 042 001 00
090430 1609N 08344W 6970 03097 9943 +129 +094 257027 028 044 000 00
090500 1608N 08343W 6968 03110 9966 +118 +097 237025 026 042 000 00
090530 1606N 08342W 6969 03113 9980 +111 +094 232028 029 040 001 00
090600 1604N 08340W 6968 03115 9985 +112 +057 227027 027 037 001 00
090630 1602N 08339W 6967 03124 9990 +110 +087 226026 026 035 003 00
090700 1600N 08338W 6972 03120 9996 +110 +079 231025 026 035 004 00
090730 1559N 08337W 6970 03126 0011 +101 +072 230027 027 030 005 00
090800 1557N 08336W 6968 03132 0018 +099 +068 229027 027 030 004 00
090830 1555N 08335W 6967 03135 0021 +098 +078 226027 027 030 005 00

pressure extrapolated 987.5 mb

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 030908
NOAA3 0405A EARL HDOB 16 20160803
090300 1615N 08347W 6942 03110 9875 +171 +050 311004 006 022 002 00

from recon page: presure 987.5 mb extrapolated