BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016
...EARL RESUMES A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS AND
BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning may be required for the Bay
Islands of Honduras later this morning.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 83.7 West. Earl is
now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it
makes landfall. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl
moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute
to investigate Earl.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in portions of the hurricane warning area in
Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016
Microwave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a
mid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the
circulation center has reformed to the south of the previous
forecast track underneath the eye feature. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial
intensity. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate Earl.
The latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion
caused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a
westward motion of 280/12. A large subtropical ridge centered over
the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving
near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over
Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24
hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of
Campeche thereafter. The new forecast track is similar to, but
south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position,
and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.
Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind
shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until
landfall. This combination should allow continued strengthening,
and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly
from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models.
Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over
southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less
time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new
intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous
forecast.
A hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands
of Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer
to the islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.0N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 18.1N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
