2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

CMC trigger happy, develops 4 TC's in latest run...

[euro6208]

EURO consistently developing a large gyre northeast of Guam with two circulations competing for supremacy. The most southerly and westerly of the circulation wins out and swallows the second system and eventually intensifies Omais to a typhoon and out to sea...

It no longer develops the system near Wake Island but instead tries to develop something near Okinawa possibly Conson...

GFS on the other hand unrealistically brings Omais near Tokyo as a Typhoon...

[euro6208]

12Z EURO with Omais nearing Japan and a strengthening ...



00Z much weaker and further east out to sea...



Both runs indicate another developing system east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

GFS still brings Typhoon Omais near Tokyo...



Previous runs had a crossover from the CPAC and another system behind Omais but since dropped...

[euro6208]

NWS

Long-range forecast remains uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF show a
monsoon-type circulation north or northeast of the Marianas by
midweek giving southwest to west winds over Guam and the CNMI. There
remains a bit of variation in wind speeds and moisture between the
models. ECMWF still favors moderate to fresh west winds locally vs
the gentle west winds in the GFS. Forecast maintains a blend of the
two. Forecast also maintains a dry bias for now. This could be
adjusted depending on the evolution of the monsoon circulation and
development of a monsoon tail.

[euro6208]

Slow but scary...

Seems like TC's reaching typhoon strength or stronger makes landfall somewhere.

Nepartak- Cat 5 at sea, Cat 4 landfall...

Mirinae- TS for Luzon and Hainan rapidly intensifies to a Cat 1 or 2 typhoon for Vietnam.

and now,

Nida which is rapidly intensifying before potential Luzon hit next Hong Kong...

Still 5 months left...

As la nina intensifies further, all that warm water will builtup in the WPAC thus more closer to landfall systems...

[1900hurricane]

Invest 98W is up for the (likely large) system developing near the Marianas.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a reverse-oriented monsoon trough may set up next week with the potential to spawn multiple tropical systems.



I've gone into some more detail in my latest blog on Weather Underground on what I currently expect from the potential feature.

[euro6208]

Looks like a reverse-oriented monsoon trough may set up next week with the potential to spawn multiple tropical systems.



I've gone into some more detail in my latest blog on Weather Underground on what I currently expect from the potential feature.

JMA seems to show it too...



NAVGEM

[euro6208]

4 or 5 from CMC?

[euro6208]

EURO also agreeing on some multiple systems...The Marianas and Micronesia will be soaking wet...

[euro6208]

06Z second run in a row of a strong typhoon making landfall over Japan...Peaks it at 940's just northwest of Guam with many other multiple systems on the horizon...

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

It's interesting to see CPC highlight the East China Sea. I did see a couple of models try to develop a weak system in the area from a non-tropical disturbance moving off the Chinese coast, but I dismissed the system due to sketchy model support and generally unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. To me, it looks like it never really detaches from the subtropical jet.

[1900hurricane]

Ha, the 12Z GFS is tropical insanity in the WPac. I'll post some links to .gifs once the run is complete through 240 hours on Levi Cowan's site, but it has a little of everything it seems.

EDIT: here they are.

Surface pressure and wind
850 mb wind
850 mb vorticity
MSLP and 500 mb height
500 mb vorticity
200 mb wind
Simulated IR

Can't say I've ever seen or heard of a reverse-oriented monsoon trough and a monsoon gyre spitting out storm at the same time. Needless to say, I'm not taking this run verbatim. The model is probably struggling with the increasing upward motion set to overspread the basin.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/761341763499851777

[1900hurricane]

Guidance, led by the GFS, is getting pretty consistent in developing something roughly below the upper low currently venting Omais in a few days. I bet this is our next invest.

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF 00z run interesting. Developing a tropical system around 20N 130E, far enough away from the circulations to the east for it to develop and be steered towards Taiwan by the high over Japan. Reminds me a bit of Sinlaku in 2008.

[dexterlabio]

The model outputs are all over the place though, but for sure there's gonna be something to watch out for in the coming days.. And it's probably not only one, not two, but a handful of them. It looks like Omais is already setting up the reverse-oriented monsoon trough that will spawn the bunch of systems next week..

[1900hurricane]

Here's the 00Z CMC, just for funnies.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/761586558306689024