ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

AF recon descending.

[Bocadude85]

AF recon descending.

I am thinking they find that Earl is now a hurricane. Convection has really deepened since the last plane departed.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

 03/1145 UTC   16.2N     84.2W       T4.5/4.5         EARL -- Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

AF recon descending.

I am thinking they find that Earl is now a hurricane. Convection has really deepened since the last plane departed.

its probably very close.. if it can start a more wnw motion get away from land a little than it will have a good shot.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031401
AF309 0505A EARL HDOB 21 20160803
135100 1712N 08503W 6967 03143 0037 +096 //// 083036 038 032 003 01
135130 1710N 08503W 6965 03147 //// +092 //// 078041 043 033 003 01
135200 1708N 08502W 6967 03142 //// +093 //// 077048 050 028 003 01
135230 1706N 08502W 6968 03137 //// +085 //// 075045 047 030 003 01
135300 1705N 08501W 6965 03141 //// +092 //// 073042 044 032 001 01
135330 1703N 08501W 6968 03137 //// +093 //// 072043 043 032 002 01
135400 1701N 08501W 6967 03136 //// +095 //// 072041 043 033 002 05
135430 1700N 08500W 6967 03137 0019 +099 +095 069040 041 035 003 00
135500 1658N 08500W 6966 03134 0012 +103 +093 065038 041 033 004 00
135530 1656N 08459W 6967 03131 0004 +110 +084 061038 040 033 004 03
135600 1654N 08459W 6967 03129 9993 +117 +076 057037 038 030 004 00
135630 1653N 08458W 6967 03127 9982 +123 +069 053037 037 031 002 03
135700 1651N 08457W 6969 03119 9977 +124 +067 043032 036 031 002 00
135730 1650N 08456W 6966 03116 9970 +124 +075 035034 036 035 003 00
135800 1648N 08454W 6965 03113 9955 +130 +088 033040 043 039 002 00
135830 1647N 08453W 6967 03101 9936 +137 +099 032039 043 042 004 00
135900 1646N 08451W 6966 03101 9928 +140 +097 032035 036 046 003 00
135930 1645N 08450W 6959 03101 9907 +150 +102 024030 036 043 003 03
140000 1644N 08448W 6975 03076 9901 +150 +096 036021 028 032 002 03
140030 1643N 08447W 6965 03080 9894 +151 +074 039025 026 027 001 00

[tropicwatch]

Recon not even to the center and finding 989.4 pressure.

[gatorcane]

Given Earl may become a hurricane before landfall, I guess we can chalk up another win for the ECMWF here as it was the only global model forecasting a potential hurricane into Belize? I know a lot of us were skeptical about the ECMWF's prediction.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031411
AF309 0505A EARL HDOB 22 20160803
140100 1642N 08445W 6967 03071 9884 +156 +068 028023 026 020 001 00
140130 1641N 08443W 6967 03069 9883 +152 +081 026018 022 013 001 00
140200 1640N 08442W 6957 03075 9876 +153 +095 027015 019 014 001 00
140230 1639N 08440W 6969 03065 9872 +161 +089 349003 013 013 001 00
140300 1639N 08439W 6967 03067 9886 +146 +094 203008 010 020 001 00
140330 1638N 08437W 6968 03070 9904 +132 +112 216012 015 025 002 03
140400 1637N 08435W 6960 03084 //// +115 //// 211026 032 037 003 01
140430 1636N 08434W 6970 03079 9948 +117 //// 210037 040 059 006 01
140500 1635N 08432W 6955 03108 9953 +119 +119 212043 046 060 006 03
140530 1634N 08431W 6967 03102 9971 +121 //// 215050 056 054 006 05
140600 1633N 08430W 6954 03126 0007 +104 //// 217046 046 048 005 01
140630 1632N 08428W 6982 03101 //// +099 //// 209042 045 047 003 01
140700 1631N 08427W 6966 03127 0018 +102 //// 208041 043 045 004 05
140730 1630N 08426W 6966 03129 0026 +104 +104 210038 040 048 007 03
140800 1628N 08424W 6967 03131 0037 +112 +112 217040 044 049 015 00
140830 1627N 08423W 6977 03122 0051 +110 +110 215038 044 049 013 03
140900 1626N 08422W 6958 03152 0054 +103 +103 218033 035 052 007 03
140930 1625N 08420W 6970 03139 0060 +101 +101 217035 036 053 007 03
141000 1624N 08419W 6963 03150 0070 +100 +100 223040 042 052 015 03
141030 1623N 08417W 6983 03135 0082 +105 +105 200047 051 051 026 00

[Aric Dunn]

987mb with 15 to 19 kt winds .. pressure may be lower..

140200 1640N 08442W 6957 03075 9876 +153 +095 027015 019 014 001 00
140230 1639N 08440W 6969 03065 9872 +161 +089 349003 013 013 001 00

highest winds so far.

60kt sfmr but could be bogus . mostly just 55kts for flight level.

[Alyono]

its an extrap from 700mb

Actual pressure almost certainly a few mb higher than that. Probably around 989mb still

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it might be moving a little more wnw now. Comparing the lowest pressure fix just made compared to the last center fix.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031421
AF309 0505A EARL HDOB 23 20160803
141100 1622N 08416W 6961 03153 0080 +103 +103 192048 052 050 034 00
141130 1621N 08415W 6967 03152 0092 +099 +099 191050 051 049 032 00
141200 1620N 08414W 6964 03158 0098 +097 +097 189050 051 040 037 00
141230 1619N 08413W 6970 03150 0106 +090 +090 185052 053 041 022 00
141300 1618N 08411W 6964 03160 0111 +087 +087 183053 054 042 012 00
141330 1617N 08410W 6964 03163 0111 +087 +087 183051 052 039 010 00
141400 1616N 08409W 6968 03161 0108 +089 +089 183049 051 038 010 00
141430 1615N 08408W 6967 03167 0121 +087 +087 180049 050 037 015 00
141500 1614N 08407W 6961 03172 0120 +087 +087 179049 050 036 016 00
141530 1613N 08406W 6973 03160 0119 +078 +078 177052 052 035 011 00
141600 1612N 08405W 6966 03169 0112 +080 +080 179051 052 035 009 00
141630 1611N 08403W 6968 03172 0113 +076 +076 181051 052 032 012 00
141700 1610N 08402W 6967 03175 0113 +075 +075 183048 050 032 013 00
141730 1609N 08401W 6967 03175 0108 +076 +076 185046 048 033 012 00
141800 1608N 08400W 6966 03177 0100 +078 +078 187048 048 032 010 00
141830 1607N 08359W 6967 03177 0101 +077 +077 187048 049 032 009 00
141900 1606N 08357W 6967 03178 0099 +078 +078 189047 048 031 009 00
141930 1605N 08356W 6968 03180 0097 +080 +077 189047 048 030 008 00
142000 1604N 08355W 6967 03181 0096 +081 +075 189046 047 030 007 00
142030 1603N 08354W 6967 03180 0092 +084 +075 188046 046 030 006 00

[Aric Dunn]

so far just a lot of mid 50kt FL in the SE Quad. NE should have some higher winds.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031430
AF309 0505A EARL HDOB 24 20160803
142100 1602N 08353W 6967 03181 0093 +083 +077 187044 046 028 006 00
142130 1601N 08351W 6967 03183 0098 +082 +080 185042 042 028 006 00
142200 1600N 08350W 6967 03184 0095 +085 +079 186042 042 028 006 00
142230 1559N 08349W 6967 03184 0096 +085 +077 186043 044 028 006 00
142300 1558N 08348W 6967 03184 0093 +086 +082 187042 043 028 004 00
142330 1557N 08346W 6967 03184 0092 +086 +084 188041 041 025 005 00
142400 1556N 08345W 6967 03186 //// +085 //// 190039 040 025 003 01
142430 1555N 08344W 6967 03188 //// +086 //// 192037 038 026 003 01
142500 1554N 08343W 6967 03187 //// +086 //// 194035 036 026 002 01
142530 1553N 08341W 6967 03188 0092 +087 +085 195035 035 025 002 01
142600 1552N 08340W 6967 03188 0093 +090 +082 195035 035 024 002 00
142630 1551N 08339W 6966 03189 0091 +089 +086 195034 034 023 002 01
142700 1549N 08338W 6967 03187 0090 +090 +086 195033 033 020 003 01
142730 1548N 08336W 6967 03188 0092 +090 +086 193033 034 020 002 00
142800 1547N 08335W 6967 03189 0090 +095 +063 192034 035 021 001 00
142830 1546N 08334W 6967 03189 0089 +097 +052 193034 035 022 000 00
142900 1545N 08332W 6967 03189 0091 +095 +060 196033 034 021 001 00
142930 1544N 08331W 6967 03190 0091 +095 +058 196032 032 019 001 00
143000 1543N 08330W 6967 03190 0089 +098 +051 199033 033 018 001 00
143030 1542N 08328W 6967 03192 0089 +100 +051 196032 033 018 001 00

[BobHarlem]

How plausible is the HWRF? It's reforming Earl in the E-PAC.

[Kazmit]

Recon not even to the center and finding 989.4 pressure.

This is definitely very close to hurricane status if not a hurricane already. Once it starts moving into the Gulf of Honduras it will be farther from land, allowing a more certain strengthening.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT12 KNHC 031432
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052016
A. 03/14:02:40Z
B. 16 deg 39 min N
084 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 3029 m
D. 46 kt
E. 300 deg 12 nm
F. 077 deg 50 kt
G. 323 deg 35 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 17 C / 3050 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF309 0505A EARL OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 54 KT 127 / 35 NM 14:13:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 26 KT

[SouthDadeFish]

Really starting to wrap up on satellite now... As it moves away from Honduras I think we could see some faster rates of intensification. Cat 2 definitely possible before landfall.

[Alyono]

looks like 988mb

[Aric Dunn]

looks like 988mb

dropsonde came out as 990.