ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031441
AF309 0505A EARL HDOB 25 20160803
143100 1541N 08327W 6966 03193 0089 +100 +045 193031 032 018 001 00
143130 1540N 08326W 6969 03192 0088 +101 +048 191031 032 017 001 00
143200 1539N 08325W 6966 03194 0089 +100 +051 192031 031 018 000 00
143230 1538N 08323W 6967 03192 0089 +100 +051 191030 030 018 001 00
143300 1536N 08322W 6967 03193 0091 +096 +049 189029 030 019 001 00
143330 1535N 08321W 6967 03193 0096 +095 +048 188028 029 016 001 00
143400 1534N 08319W 6967 03192 0095 +094 +051 189027 028 017 001 00
143430 1533N 08318W 6966 03194 0097 +091 +052 193027 027 017 001 00
143500 1532N 08317W 6968 03192 0096 +095 +047 195027 028 016 002 00
143530 1531N 08316W 6967 03194 0095 +096 +050 192027 028 019 001 00
143600 1530N 08314W 6967 03194 0097 +095 +053 191026 027 019 001 00
143630 1529N 08313W 6967 03194 0097 +095 +052 191026 026 019 001 00
143700 1528N 08312W 6967 03194 0097 +095 +054 190026 026 018 000 03
143730 1527N 08310W 6965 03195 0093 +097 +055 187027 027 /// /// 03
143800 1529N 08309W 6965 03198 0093 +100 +052 181028 028 018 001 00
143830 1531N 08309W 6967 03197 0094 +099 +053 178028 028 018 001 00
143900 1533N 08309W 6967 03197 0099 +095 +055 179029 029 020 001 00
143930 1535N 08309W 6967 03195 0098 +095 +055 179029 029 018 001 00
144000 1537N 08309W 6967 03197 0100 +095 +054 179029 029 017 001 00
144030 1539N 08308W 6967 03195 0099 +095 +052 180029 030 017 001 00

[tolakram]

20 frame visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

IR loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

There is some 10kt shear from the NW last analysis.

[Kazmit]

How plausible is the HWRF? It's reforming Earl in the E-PAC.

Doesn't seem likely due to the rough topography of Mexico. Though that would be cool

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 84.8 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently investigating
Earl and will determine if the cyclone has reached hurricane
intensity. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12
hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a little stronger by the
time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of
Earl moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occuring along
the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and
found that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the
cloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane.
An Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central
pressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far
no hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60
kt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening
today is the interaction of the circulation with Central America,
but nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity
before landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening
is anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the
center of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Earl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The
cyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a
strong and persistent high pressure system over the United States.
This pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward
track over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that
the cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the
southern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the
chances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one and follows the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.8N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.5N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Aric Dunn]

center will be coming into Belize radar range later today. almost there now.

[arnpry]

Code: Select all

000
URNT12 KNHC 031432
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL052016
A. 03/14:02:40Z
B. 16 deg 39 min N
  084 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 3029 m
D. 46 kt
E. 300 deg 12 nm
F. 077 deg 50 kt
G. 323 deg 35 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 17 C / 3050 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF309 0505A EARL               OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 54 KT 127 / 35 NM 14:13:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 26 KT
;

Eyewall open in the west, circular with a diameter of 16nm.

[Kazmit]

Coast of Honduras now starting to experience TS-force winds.

[tolakram]

Coast of Honduras now starting to experience TS-force winds.

Do you have a source for this, or is it an opinion?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/760851194549981185

[Bocadude85]

Coast of Honduras now starting to experience TS-force winds.

Do you have a source for this, or is it an opinion?

I would assume he is referring to the wind history page on the NHC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145524.shtml?swath#contents

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the latest center fix, it is about 45 miles NW of the last center fix. The last three were all due west. Seems to have jumped a bit

[Aric Dunn]

next 20 min or so.. recon heading on a east to west pass.. hopefully they sample NE quad at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the latest center fix, it is about 45 miles NW of the last center fix. The last three were all due west. Seems to have jumped a bit

yeah pretty good nw jog. thats what it needs to do if its to deepen rapidly before landfall.

[tolakram]

Coast of Honduras now starting to experience TS-force winds.

Do you have a source for this, or is it an opinion?

I would assume he is referring to the wind history page on the NHC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145524.shtml?swath#contents

And the advisory just came out.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occuring along
the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

[Alyono]

the convective pattern really needs to improve for this to intensify much more. It is becoming quite ragged on IR. Not much banding. Almost as if it is trying to transition to a CCC pattern. I was not expecting this

[Javlin]

to transition to a CCC pattern. I was not expecting this

What is CCC?

[Aric Dunn]

to transition to a CCC pattern. I was not expecting this

What is CCC?

its part of the DVORAK Technique. describes T numbers from (T2.5-T5.0) and means central cold cover (CCC) pattern

[ScottNAtlanta]

The Dvorak technique (developed between 1969 and 1984 by Vernon Dvorak) is a widely used system to estimate tropical cyclone intensity (which includes tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane/typhoon/intense tropical cyclone intensities) based solely on visible and infrared satellite images. Within the Dvorak satellite strength estimate for tropical cyclones, there are several visual patterns that a cyclone may take on which define the upper and lower bounds on its intensity. The primary patterns used are curved band pattern (T1.0-T4.5), shear pattern (T1.5-T3.5), central dense overcast (CDO) pattern (T2.5-T5.0), central cold cover (CCC) pattern, banding eye pattern (T4.0-T4.5), and eye pattern (T4.5 - T8.0).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[Aric Dunn]

east quad showing bunch of 59kt FL.. still not hurricane..though they should sample the NE quad..

[tolakram]

While some reorganizing seems to be going on it also appears to be taking on the classic hurricane shape.