ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to 985 mb.. after reduction 997 ish

[Aric Dunn]

also definitely on a WNW track now. bringing farther from the coast. has about 12 hours left to do its thing.

[tropicwatch]

I expect the NHC will change the forecast cone next advisory. It is going to be quite a bit further north of Roatan than expected.

[Aric Dunn]

as new convection is beginning to develop on the feeder bands working their way in to the center (banding is becoming more pronounced) the mid level circ has become more better organized. Could see and eyewall close off from the new convective burst thats starting.

[Blown Away]

Earl follows forecast track, Belmopan & Belize City are the most populated areas in the cone, the rest is lightly populated countryside areas... Still going to be a bad day for some...

[Alyono]

slightly weaker from this recon pass. Kind of expected this given the poor convective organization

[Aric Dunn]

Earl follows forecast track, Belmopan & Belize City are the most populated areas in the cone, the rest is lightly populated countryside areas... Still going to be a bad day for some...

pretty much where Dean made landfall..

[wflamholtz]

slightly weaker from this recon pass. Kind of expected this given the poor convective organization

I think what's happening is there is a broadening of the pressure field, which is somewhat normal for developing systems when it gets vertically stacked

[Alyono]

Earl follows forecast track, Belmopan & Belize City are the most populated areas in the cone, the rest is lightly populated countryside areas... Still going to be a bad day for some...

pretty much where Dean made landfall..

Dean made landfall north of Chetumal Mexico and hit next to nobody

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT12 KNHC 031550
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052016
A. 03/15:29:20Z
B. 16 deg 49 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 3036 m
D. 42 kt
E. 126 deg 15 nm
F. 161 deg 59 kt
G. 104 deg 39 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 10 C / 3123 m
J. 16 C / 3045 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF309 0505A EARL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 104 / 39 NM 15:17:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 120 / 11 KT

[Alyono]

some dry air as per the dropsonde

[Aric Dunn]

Still no NE quad sampling .. they are doing another NW to SE

[Aric Dunn]

since the convection faded from the last burst the center has become visible. Strong banding building from Se to nw quads. this burst should wrap all the way around potentially closing the eye and could see significant deepening.

[Blown Away]

Earl has much of its circulation envelope interacting with land and RI is a distinct possibility... Same time we can't get a decent storm in the wide open MDR region...

[abajan]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2illxfb.jpg
Earl follows forecast track, Belmopan & Belize City are the most populated areas in the cone, the rest is lightly populated countryside areas... Still going to be a bad day for some...

Thankfully, those in Belize City won't likely be taking the situation lightly, because many of them still have vivid memories of a monster of a hurricane named Hattie which almost destroyed the city 55 years ago. It was the reason for establishing Belmopan as the new capital of Belize.

[centuryv58]

Earl has much of its circulation envelope interacting with land and RI is a distinct possibility... Same time we can't get a decent storm in the wide open MDR region...

But this came from the MDR, didn't it??

[Blown Away]

Earl has much of its circulation envelope interacting with land and RI is a distinct possibility... Same time we can't get a decent storm in the wide open MDR region...

But this came from the MDR, didn't it??

I guess I needed to specify a TS or hurricane...

Abajan, thx for the history backup!!

[tolakram]

30 frame visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

I'm not sure why anything was expected to develop east of the Caribbean before mid August in a year forecast to be near normal.

[Alyono]

winds in the northeast quad do not even support 60 kts

This is a 50-55 kt tropical storm

[Hammy]

winds in the northeast quad do not even support 60 kts

This is a 50-55 kt tropical storm

Is the land interaction causing problems with organizing?