Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/760884866015567872

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
100 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating
Earl has not measured winds of hurricane force. However, additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl
is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Belize.
Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occurring
along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
233 PM AST WED AUG 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A generally stable air mass will continue to dominate
the area over the next 24 hours as a mid level ridge just northeast
of the local islands. A weak tropical wave will reach the local
region late Thursday night into Friday...producing another round
of showers and thunderstorms. A second tropical wave will cross
the forecast area during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A generally drier air mass has prevailed across most
of the forecast area today. Some scattered showers are still
possible across the North Central and Northwest Puerto Rico later
this afternoon. This shower activity will diminish significantly
before sunset.

The stable pattern will prevail across most of the area through
Thursday. The typical afternoon showers is expected across portions
of Western Puerto Rico. Little or no shower activity is forecast
elsewhere.

A weak tropical wave will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the local islands late Thursday night into
Friday Morning. A drier slot possible Friday afternoon. However...
Deep moisture associated with a second tropical wave will surge
during the weekend. This wave will likely bring organized convection
across portions of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands. Moisture
will gradually decrease on Monday as the wave moves into the Central
Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across the local terminals with
some SHRA developing across the NW sections of PR which could cause
VCSH/VCTS after 03/18Z. There is also a slight chance of VCSH for
TJSJ. Winds will prevail from the ESE at 10-15KT with sea breeze
variations and occasional gusts through 03/23Z. Winds decreasing
thereafter to 5-10KT during the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 2-4 feet and winds of 10-15 knots will prevail
across the coastal waters. Seas up to 5 feet are possible across
the offshore waters. Marine conditions will deteriorate somewhat
during the weekend with the wave passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 89 80 89 / 20 20 50 50
STT 80 91 80 89 / 30 30 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...LARGE EARL HEADING FOR BELIZE...
...ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
will continue to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands during the
next few hours, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, however, Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it
reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Earl has become a large cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably occurring along the
north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands. These conditions
will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next several
hours, and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and
Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reached Earl and measured
maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), indicating that Earl
is now a hurricane.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
700 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...RAIN BANDS OF EARL SPREADING OVER BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.9 West. Earl is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will make
landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before Earl reaches
Belize tonight. Weakening will begin after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued all warnings for the
coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located
by an an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4
North, longitude 87.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15
mph (24 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move inland
over Belize within the next few hours, and move over the southern
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, and
Earl will begin to weaken after it moves inland over Belize on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz
between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum
amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST THU AUG 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level low over the Hispanola will increase the
local instability today. A mid to upper level high is forecast to
build over the region late tonight through the upcoming weekend.
A fast moving tropical wave is forecast to reach the local region
by late tonight into Friday. Followed by a stronger tropical wave
by early Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A relative calm weather prevailed overnight with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. However, passing clouds with embedded showers
were detected across the local waters, east Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. For today, expect warm coastal temperatures
and sunny to partly cloudy skies with just a few passing showers
across the East half of PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but
nothing significant. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the interior and Northwest PR, and also near the
Metropolitan area of San Juan. In addition, showers downwind from
the U.S. Virgin Islands cannot be ruled out.

A fast moving tropical wave is expected to reach the local waters
late tonight, and it will enhance somewhat the formation of
showers and thunderstorms late tonight, becoming more frequent by
early Friday morning. Although, subsidence with a slot of dry air
is expected briefly after this wave, a stronger tropical wave is
forecast to encompass the county warning area by early Saturday
morning. This tropical wave have the potential to increase the
risk of flooding and squally weather during the weekend. At this
time, moisture is expected to gradually decrease between Sunday
and Monday as the wave moves into the Western Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected til 04/15z. Some -SHRA
across the Leeward, USVI and TJSJ taf sites til 04/14Z. Winds
increasing to 10-15 kts and bcmg E after 04/12Z with sea breeze
influences. Some SHRA will develop across the NW sections of PR
after 04/18z which could cause VCSH/VCTS across TJMZ/TJBQ. For the
Leeward Islands, bands of moisture will move through aft 04/16z as
tropical wave appchs the area. Areas of MVFR conds aft 04/16z
there. LLVL winds bcmg E 15 to 25 kt up through FL120 by 05/00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas of 2-5 feet and winds of 10-20 knots will prevail across the
local waters. As a result, small craft operators should exercise
caution across some areas. Marine conditions will deteriorate
during the weekend with the wave passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 30 50 50 50
STT 92 81 90 79 / 40 50 50 60

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/761226421838557185

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
224 PM AST THU AUG 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level low over the Hispanola will slowly
shift westward while increasing upper level instability across the
region overnight through Friday. Upper level ridge will gradually
build over the Northeastern Caribbean and local area by Friday
afternoon then linger through the upcoming weekend. A fast moving
tropical wave now crossing the Lesser Antilles will enter the Eastern
Caribbean and reach the local region overnight through Friday. Another
tropical wave is forecast to reach the forecast area by early Saturday.
An extensive area of saharan dust is accompanying this second tropical
wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms developed
over parts of the interior and west sections of PR, some of the
showers and thunderstorms produced periods of moderate to local
rainfall but were of short duration. a few showers were noted
across some of the U.S. Virgin Islands but were mainly over the
coastal waters and downwind of the islands.

During the early evening ...showers activity is expected to
diminish over the islands leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. This will however be short lived as the fast moving
tropical wave is expected to reach the regional waters during the
late evening and early morning hours. This wave in combination
with the instability aloft will increase the chance for enhanced
convection across the local waters and parts of the islands by
early morning and during the day on Friday.

Although some subsidence and a slot of low to mid level drying is
expected following the first wave passage, increasing tropical
moisture accompanying the second tropical wave, will quickly
follow and spread across the region by Saturday and into early Sunday.
This expected scenario will increase low level moisture convergence
and instability across the region once again. As a result the moist
and unstable weather environment accompanying the wave will have
potential to increase the risk of flooding and squally weather during
the weekend.

By late Sunday and Monday as the second tropical wave exits the area,
a gradual drying trend is expected. However, local and diurnal effects
should will still lead to locally and diurnally induced convection
each day at least into the early part of next week. Even dryer and
warmer condition expected by Tuesday and through the end of next
week as a drier airmass and weaker surges of saharan dust is forecast
to move across the region.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR conds expected across the USVI and PR terminals
today with TEMPO MVFR/IFR conds with gusty winds for TNCM and TKPK
this afternoon into tonight as tropical wave affects the area.
VCSH/VCTS after 04/18Z for TJMZ. SHRA/TSRA with gusts to 20-25KT
possible tonight into Fri morning for TIST/TISX starting after
05/02Z and for TJSJ after about 05/04Z a the tropical wave moves in.


&&

.MARINE...Seas of 2-5 feet and winds of 10-20 knots will prevail
across the local waters overnight. As a result, small craft
operators should exercise caution across some areas. Marine
conditions will deteriorate by lat Friday and during the weekend
with the passage of another tropical wave. Please refer to the
latest coastal waters forecast issued by the National weather
service WFO San Juan PR for additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 88 / 50 50 50 50
STT 81 90 79 88 / 50 50 60 60

&&

[Gustywind]

Ligthnings and strong tstorms are making the show this afternoon since 1 hour . We have frequent lightnings and thunder is rumbling roughly! Numerous rounds of showers are spreading on us. Again lightnings and more lightnings here, i hope that things will came down a bit even if ... another TWAVE is supposed to come tommorow. Wet weather conditions in Guadeloupe. Stay and dry my EC neighbours.
Regards
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will move across the area today. Another
tropical wave will affect the region Saturday. Saharan air layer
will encompass the region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of scattered to numerous showers developed
this morning across the coastal waters...south of Saint Croix.
These area of showers and thunderstorms were increasing in
coverage. This activity is associated with a Tropical wave which
will continue to move west and will affect the local area today.
Therefore...showers with thunderstorms will spread across the
region this morning across the eastern half of Puerto Rico and
then across the western part of Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours.

For tonight...a slight decrease in shower activity is
expected...as the wave move away from the area. However...another
fast moving tropical wave will affect the local area late tonight
into Saturday morning. Saturdays wave looks more active than
todays wave...with deep tropical moisture expected to affect the
region. This deep moisture will enhance the shower and
thunderstorm activity across the region. After the passage of
Saturday`s wave...a very dry airmass is expected to move across
the region...with Saharan dust affecting the region. In
summary...a wet pattern is expected for today and Saturday..with
drier conditions on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...A tropical wave will move across the region producing
periods of SHRA and TSRA across the flying area. Mtn obscuration is
likely across higher elevations. Periods of VCSH/VCTS expected for
USVI and E PR. SHRA/TSRA with possible MVFR cond expected across the
interior and W PR from 16Z-22Z affecting TJMZ/TJBQ. Low level winds
from the east at 10-20 kts with higher gusts especially near
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
Small Craft should exercise caution across most local waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 50 50 50 30
STT 90 79 88 81 / 40 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/761566859581857792

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
216 PM AST FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tutt low is shifting farther west to just north of
eastern Cuba, while an upper ridge continued to build across the
Northeastern Caribbean. A Tropical wave with axis now moving across
Puerto Rico will continue westward and exit the Mona passage later
this evening. Another Tropical wave was quickly approaching the
Lesser Antilles and is forecast to enter the Eastern Caribbean later
tonight. The second wave is expected to move across the local area
early Saturday morning bringing additional tropical moisture to the
region. Satellite imagery and aerosol products suggests a Saharan
air layer with suspended Saharan dust particulates is accompanying
and trailing this second wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and strong thunderstorms accompanying the
first tropical wave continued to affect the coastal waters and
parts of the islands today. Some areas received periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, which
eventually lead to urban and small stream flooding. Expect periods
of frequent lightning, gusty winds and occasionally heavy rain to
continue across portions of the islands into the early evening
hours. The activity will then gradually diminish and taper off by
late evening just ahead of the next Tropical wave expected to affect
the region by early Saturday morning.

Model guidance continued to suggest increasing PWAT values in
excess of two inches across most of the islands through Saturday
with the approach of the next tropical wave. With the moisture
already in place across the region, and the additional moisture
convergence, still expect a very unstable and moist weather pattern
through Saturday. Any breaks in clouds on Saturday along with
marginal instability aloft ...diurnal heating and orographic
effects will give way to enhanced convection across the islands.
In addition, soil remains saturated from the present rains across
the islands. For this reason a Flash Flood watch was issued for
Puerto Rico...Culebra...Vieques and the U.S Virgin Islands beginning
midnight AST tonight and continuing through Saturday.

A gradually improvement in the weather conditions is expected by
Sunday and Monday as the Saharan air layer and a dryer airmass is
expected to spread across the region. However, residual moisture
along with local and diurnal effects will allow for periods of
early morning passing showers along with isolated thunderstorm
development during the afternoons mainly across portions of the
interior and west sections of Puerto Rico for the remainder of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA are expected to affect the TIST/TISX/TJSJ
terminals intermittently through at least 05/22Z while the
tropical wave moves west, TJBQ/TJMZ can expect VCTS/VCSH after
05/18Z. Weather conditions expected to improve after 06/00Z. The
next tropical wave will start to affect the local terminals after
06/04Z, which will cause SHRA/TSRA over the local terminals
causing occasional MVFR/IFR conds due to low cigs and heavy rain
with gusty winds of 25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution for seas up to 6
feet and winds up to 20 knots overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue to affect the local waters through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 92 / 50 50 30 50
STT 79 88 81 89 / 60 60 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An active tropical wave will move across the area
today. Numerous showers with thunderstorms will affect the region
through early Sunday. A drier airmass will encompass the local
area after the passage of the wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Numerous showers with strong thunderstorms were
observed across the eastern half of Puerto Rico overnight and
early morning. Very heavy rainfall was observed over the San Juan
metropolitan area as well as the eastern sections of Puerto rico.
Some rivers across the east section of Puerto Rico were rising
rapidly due to excessive runoff from heavy rainfall. This activity
is associated with a strong tropical wave which is moving across
the region this morning. This wave will continue to move across
the region the rest of today...producing periods of heavy
rainfall across the area. GFS model indicated high rainfall
accumulation can be expected mainly over the eastern half of
Puerto Rico through early Sunday. The potential for flash flooding
is high across all PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands as deep tropical
moisture continues across the region through at least Sunday
morning. As a result...a flash flood watch continues in effect
through early Sunday morning. An improvement in the weather
conditions is expected Sunday afternoon...as drier airmass will
encompass the region behind the wave. However...lingering
moisture will combine with daytime heating and local effects to
aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the western interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...A second tropical wave will move westward across the
region today. SHRA/TSRA expected to affect the Leewards, USVI and E
PR terminals intermittently. Periods of MVFR cond with mtn
obscurations likely. VCTS/VCSH can be expected for TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS
from 14Z-22Z. Winds will continue from mainly the E at 10-15 knots
with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. Small Craft should exercise caution
across the offshore waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
will produce hazardous marine conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 80 92 82 / 70 40 50 30
STT 88 81 89 81 / 80 60 60 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST SAT AUG 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The tropical wave that is affecting the local islands
will continue to cause showers and thunderstorms over the area as
it moves to the west. Showers and thunderstorms expected to be
intermittent for the USVI but more persistent for PR due to local
effects late this afternoon into this evening. Moisture will
decrease by Sunday morning and it will gradually decrease through
Sunday. A slight increase in the Saharan dust concentration
expected on Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The tropical wave that affected the local islands
left modest amounts of rain today as the leading edge moved over
the local islands. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through the afternoon hours into the early evening,
especially over PR. In the mid afternoon hours, a shift is
expected to a more southeasterly wind direction which could cause
showers to develop and affect the Luquillo mountain range and
portions of the San Juan metro area once again. The shower
activity is expected to have diminished after the early evening
hours. The rest of the night into Sunday morning the shower
activity will be intermittent with small accumulations. However,
an area of enhanced convection southeast of the local islands is
moving north northeast, we will observe this area as it could
potentially move into the local islands tonight.

Latest guidance and observations indicate that the available
moisture will decrease gradually though Sunday into Monday with
only a few showers expected on Monday and Tuesday as Saharan dust
makes its way into the local islands, which will linger through
Wednesday.

This upcoming week, the only shower activity expected will be
mainly locally induced as there is no tropical wave expected until
the following weekend. This week we have a surface high pressure
north of the local area keeping winds from the east then east
northeast early in the week then a much stronger surface high in
the northwestern Atlantic maintaining an easterly wind flow,
becoming southeasterly for the upcoming weekend at the same time
the long range models put the tropical wave over our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing SHRA/Isold TSRA fcst to affect local
flying area en route btw islands and over the local waters.
Activity however will be circumnavigable. Shra/Tsra dvlpmnt VCTY
most TAF siteS til 06/23z. Sct-Bkn cld lyrs FL020-FL050...Bkn-Ovc
FL080-FL120... Max Tops w/Isold TSRA NR FL400. Brief Mtn Top Obscr
Ovr Ctrl Mtn Range of PR due To passing convective activity.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution as seas will be up
to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots. Locally higher winds and seas
are possible near showers and thunderstorms. Seas to improve on
Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 82 91 / 40 50 30 30
STT 81 89 81 90 / 60 60 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
532 AM AST SUN AUG 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will dominate the local area
through mid week. Upper level trough will move across the region
tuesday. Next tropical wave will approach the local area Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tropical wave which affected the local area
Saturday...moved away from the local area...leaving partly cloudy
skies with only some passing showers observed across the coastal
waters. High pressure at the surface will dominate the region next
several days. Only light passing showers embedded in the trade
winds are expected to affect the local region from time to time.
Low level moisture is expected to combine with daytime heating and
local effect to aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the interior sections of Puerto Rico
each afternoon. An upper level trough is expected to be located
west of the area by Tuesday and Wednesday which will enhance the
afternoon convection across the area. Next tropical wave it is
expected to affect the region by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all taf
sites through 07/17z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with
mountain obscurations can be expected over TJMZ and TJBQ in TSRA.
Low level winds will be mainly east to southeast at 10 to 15 kts
with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected.
Small Craft should exercise caution across the Atlantic waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 82 90 80 / 30 30 30 20
STT 89 81 90 80 / 20 30 30 20

[HurricaneFan]

Is that Tropical Wave for Saturday on the West coast of Africa now,ready to leave?

[cycloneye]

Is that Tropical Wave for Saturday on the West coast of Africa now,ready to leave?

I think so.If that is the case it will be a fast mover.