2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Siker]

GFS has at least something:

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET looks a little more enthusiastic with something along the northern Gulf coast:

[Hammy]

Euro seems to show something at 168 hours as well, so hints of -something- possibly developing in the Gulf in about a week.

[tolakram]

Weatherbell Euro shows what looks like a strung out low pressure system forming and then moving Inland fairly quickly.

[Siker]

Going off Euro simulated satellite from Weatherbell, it looks like that system forms from an interaction between a decaying front and 96L.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS has two tropical cyclones forming from an old frontal boundary off the SE U.S. Coast starting around 204hrs.

Also there is another strong tropical wave that develops in the Tropical Atlantic @ 240hrs.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow.....12z ECM showing up to 48kt 10m wind gusts over the NE Gulf with this. Something to watch!

[La Breeze]

Euro seems to show something at 168 hours as well, so hints of -something- possibly developing in the Gulf in about a week.

Would this be a "home-grown" system or something from the Atlantic that would have moved in?

[Dean4Storms]

Euro seems to show something at 168 hours as well, so hints of -something- possibly developing in the Gulf in about a week.

Would this be a "home-grown" system or something from the Atlantic that would have moved in?

It's a trough splitting that lies across the SE USA and then backs down into the Gulf.

[wxman57]

00Z Euro indicates 15-18" of rain offshore SE Louisiana next Tue-Thu. Heavy squalls out over very warm water will need to be watched closely.

[OuterBanker]

Sure enough. Looks like 20 + inches in NOLA. Looks more like a lingering td. Also interesting is the 20+ inch area just off Tampa/St Pete in 144. I'ts the Euro.

06 GFS, nada.

[Steve]

Sure enough. Looks like 20 + inches in NOLA. Looks more like a lingering td. Also interesting is the 20+ inch area just off Tampa/St Pete in 144. I'ts the Euro.

06 GFS, nada.

While I'm not a big Euro Hugger, I always take notice when it's got me under a gun. I don't have access to higher end ECMWF runs, but if what I'm seeing in the low res model is right, a piece of frontal or trough energy gets left behind around coastal South Carolina and backs off Southwest (as they do in La Nina seasons) while an intersection or tropical surge (possibly from 96L?) moves in from the ESE. I don't know if it's just a surface low/rainmaker type system or if it's tropical, but that's a lot of rainfall. Also, other than general pulses from the SW Atlantic Ridge and tropical waves moving across the basin, there usually aren't strong steering currents earlier in the season - at least the ones that force systems to lift up and out into the westerlies. While it's got 7 or 8 days to refine the solution, WPAC teleconnects strong ridging off the SE US Coast in the 7-10 day range as well.

Edit to say that yeah, it looks like the timing would be about right for early next week from the deep tropical surge associated with ex-96L per the Mimic (MIMIC - SSMI/SSMIS/TMI derived Total Precipitable water) run.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... basin=natl

[Blown Away]

Long range 12z GFS has a nice low screaming across the Atlantic...

[Dean4Storms]

Wow.......12z ECM has a low developing next week right along the FL Panhandle Coast and then slowly moves it northward into South Alabama. Showing 10M Gusts up to 65kts along the Panhandle Coasts by next Saturday at 240 hours.

Also shows total rainfall by then of 40.1" of rain!!!!

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET has dropped development of the northern Gulf system but it still shows some unsettled weather over the northern Gulf developing about 5-6 days from now

[Hurricaneman]

While its probably pure fantasy the low on the 12zGFS at 384 if that pattern remains would be quite worrisome as it would continue WNW towards the Southeastern US beyond that so we'll see if its still there in 5 days on the model before giving it some thought

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tolakram]

Euro develops the low center inland. Will have to be watched, no model is that accurate this far out.

[Dean4Storms]

Euro develops the low center inland. Will have to be watched, no model is that accurate this far out.

Actually @216 hrs has a low closed off just offshore Destin, FL then it moves just inland and showing a 1003mb pressure as it drifts northward into South Alabama.

[Hurricaneman]

Euro develops the low center inland. Will have to be watched, no model is that accurate this far out.

Actually @216 hrs has a low closed off just offshore Destin, FL then it moves just inland and showing a 1003mb pressure as it drifts northward into South Alabama.

the 18zGFS seems to develop this feature sooner but who knows whats going to happen so its a wait and see situation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Frank2]

Latest 10-day GFS shows a feature not seen all summer - a trough pattern developing off the US EC, the high displaced well to the northeast...