ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[latitude_20]

Yucatan beach cams:

http://www.beach-vacations-firsthand.co ... h-cam.html

My fiance lives just north of Tulum, and they're getting fairly heavy rain right now as the first rainband passes through. I'm amazed at the scale of this storm, looks as if the entire Yucatan coast is going to feel it to some degree.

[Yellow Evan]

The data is sending somewhat mixed signals--the appearance on radar has improved but the winds now seem weaker and nothing indicates more than 60-65mph from the last two passes.

53 knt SFMR justifies 55 knots, and it's really easy for Recon to miss the strongest winds, so likely still a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

Yucatan beach cams:

http://www.beach-vacations-firsthand.co ... h-cam.html

My fiance lives just north of Tulum, and they're getting fairly heavy rain right now as the first rainband passes through. I'm amazed at the scale of this storm, looks as if the entire Yucatan coast is going to feel it to some degree.

Yeah, Earl got huge pretty quickly, and is still strengthening. This could be a nasty storm for a lot of Central America and Mexico.

[tropicwatch]

Eye of Earl showing up on radar out of Belize.

[Aric Dunn]

Next plane should be arriving shortly.

[tropicwatch]

Aric I think it had to turn back. Last report out of it was an hour ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric I think it had to turn back. Last report out of it was an hour ago.

again... grrrr.. well they will never upgrade now.

[Hammy]

Aric I think it had to turn back. Last report out of it was an hour ago.

Have we managed to get a single AF flight actually make it to the storm?

[Aric Dunn]

haha nevermind they did.. I was driving home..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

August 3rd #Earl radar loop, from 2:02pm CDT to 6:02pm CDT, from NOAA mission 6.

Credit: NOAA-AOC.



Link: https://youtu.be/zQP6KukOEZ4

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Aric I think it had to turn back. Last report out of it was an hour ago.

Since we have had no observations lately, it could just be transmission problems. The other two flights that turned around had observations that indicated it turned around.

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall is solid and round with deeper convection building all around..

[Hammy]

Any word on the plane and if we'll actually get any more observations before landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

[tailgater]

Awesome loop Chris in Tampa. Stuff this old timer never thought he would see.

[gatorcane]

Saved IR rainbow:

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
700 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...RAIN BANDS OF EARL SPREADING OVER BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.9 West. Earl is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will make
landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before Earl reaches
Belize tonight. Weakening will begin after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[GLF4drvr]

New band of rain hitting Ambergris Caye right now. Coming in on a wind of about 20G25kt from the North West. Swell on the reef definitely >10ft now, with 3 ft waves making it to shore. Very hot and humid. Much more northerly component to the weather than what I personally expected....not sure everyone is quite ready for an onslaught from the north, as opposed to the East, which is our more typical severe weather window.

[TheAustinMan]

NHC Atlantic Ops @NHC_Atlantic is tweeting a VDM... stand by.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760995582311792640

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They are doing vortex message by Tweet:

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760995582311792640




 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760996046185107456




 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760996598495244288




 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760997118056292352