ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

VDM disemminated via tweet:

Code: Select all

A.  03/2335Z 
B.  17 deg 21 min N  086 deg 45 min W
C.  700 mb 2980 m
D. 56 kt
E. 102 deg 16 nm 
F. 141 deg 64 kt 
G. 078 deg 32 nm 
H. 986 mb 
L. CLOSED 
M. C20
P.  MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72 KT 2342Z. 
CTR DROP WND 20 KT. 
RAGGED EYE


[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde supports a 984. And flight-level winds of 72 kt support a hurricane as well.

[Hammy]

Center dropsonde supports a 984. And flight-level winds of 72 kt support a hurricane as well.

Will they be there until landfall? It would be interesting for once to get a clearer idea of landfall intensity here as often strengthening systems come ashore between flights.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I manually added the vortex message into my recon system.



URNT12 KNHC 040029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052016
A. 03/2335Z
B. 17 deg 21 min N
086 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2980 m
D. 56 kt
E. 102 deg 16 nm
F. 141 deg 64 kt
G. 078 deg 32 nm
H. 986 mb
I. NA
J. NA
K. NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. NA
O. NA
P. AF301 0705A EARL OB 99
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72 KT 2342Z.
CTR DROP WND 20 KT.
RAGGED EYE
THIS VORTEX HAS BEEN MANUALLY CONSTRUCTED BY TROPICAL GLOBE FROM NHC TWITTER FEED



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 0:29Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2016
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 99
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:35Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°21'N 86°45'W (17.35N 86.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 96 statute miles (155 km) to the E (96°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,980m (9,777ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (102°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 141° at 64kts (From the SE at ~ 73.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the ENE (78°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: Not Available
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: Not Available
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) at 23:42Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CTR DROP WND 20 KT.
RAGGED EYE
THIS VORTEX HAS BEEN MANUALLY CONSTRUCTED BY TROPICAL GLOBE FROM NHC TWITTER FEED

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall getting better organized.

[Alyono]

could be similar to richard in terms of impact in belize city

[ronjon]

18z HWRF now further north into the BOC and maintains earl at near hurricane strength.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016080318&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=42

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016080318&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=36

[NotoSans]

Looks much better on microwave now.

[HurricaneRyan]

This strengthened more than I thought it would.

Reminds me of Ernesto and Richard for sure.

[BobHarlem]

This strengthened more than I thought it would.

Reminds me of Ernesto and Richard for sure.

Here's the radar from Ernesto. Ernesto was a bit further north, but somewhat similar. Earl has a wider eye for sure.

[tolakram]

live ir

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[floridasun78]

i think only got few hour to stay alive very close to land

[Hammy]

SFMR still only indicates 55kt system--have there been any actual hurricane winds recorded at the surface since the first pass earlier this afternoon?

[Aric Dunn]

had this had 12 to 24 more hours it would likely have been a different story..

[Aric Dunn]

we have recon back up.. going to organize right up to landfall.. looking better and better every frame

[Rgv20]

This is 2 of the 51 12zECMWF Ensembles which take Earl into NE Mexico by day 4...

[gatorcane]

had this had 12 to 24 more hours it would likely have been a different story..

Agreed, thankfully it will run out of time

[Aric Dunn]

What do we have for observations?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:37pm CDT:

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding a lot of steady hurricane force winds this pass in the NE quad nearly 2 whole sets of data. next set will be center pass.. 68kt well away from center.

64kt at 994mb pressures will probably be down to 980 FL