Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

[floridasun78]

look got hit by dry air again

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
21N55W to 09N56W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 17N-20N between 56W-60W.
Isolated moderate convection is also from 07N-11N between 52W-
57W.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-animated.gif
Our Ex-96L still popping some persistent deep convection... Still no model support, but persistent disturbed areas are worth watching IMO... I think a 10% code yellow is appropriate IMO...

[Blown Away]

[StormHunter72]

Seems to be an Upper Level low in front of the "wave"

[chaser1]

Seems to be an Upper Level low in front of the "wave"

96L is an interesting feature that should'nt be disgarded without chance of development. There looks to be a sharp upper trough easily depicted by the very dry air just due west of the wave, but this feature seems to be filling and moistening up for the time being largely due to the waves own recent convection. The bigger question mark is the prominent upper low spinning over the Southeastern Bahamas. Right now this low is actually helping ventilate 96L's convection like a "rip-cord" on a lawn mower. There's a bit of a squeeze play occuring here. High pressure looks to be building over the E. Conus and W. North Atlantic. The cut-off low would seem to evolve within one of two different solutions as I see it. The cut-off low might more or less remain in place but drift Southwest in the wake of the eroding upper ridge which had built over the top of Hurricane Earl but little movement would likely cause the wave to move under the cut-off's east side thus creating a fairly sharp southerly shear over any convection that might still be firing. The other possibility I suppose, could have the upper low drop far enough to the south or southwest, thus allowing upper air over the tropiical wave to remain divergent and helping fan out convective outflow on the wave's west side, but without creating such strong shear conditions to tear it apart. I'm just not so sure that enough of a progressive flow exists to fully allow that cut-off to really be deflected enough to not impinge strong shear on 96L beginning in about 24-36 hours.

[Kazmit]

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't put a yellow cross on it and marked it as an invest yet. Would this be 98L if it was invested?

[chaser1]

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't put a yellow cross on it and marked it as an invest yet. Would this be 98L if it was invested?

Hmmm, not sure. I was under the impressikon that this was "The Artist formerly Known as 96L" LOL. At this point though, I'm guessing NHC will give this feature at least another 12 to 24 hours and see if it'll be a feature that persists in light of it approaching questionable upper air conditions

[Yellow Evan]

Don't wanna come off as harsh, but I see zero reason to tag a system in the tropics with zero model support.

[StormHunter72]

Don't wanna come off as harsh, but I see zero reason to tag a system in the tropics with zero model support.

I agree. Interesting though that the models have struggled with ULL situations in the past. I believe 2005 or 2007 was one of those years?

[Yellow Evan]

Don't wanna come off as harsh, but I see zero reason to tag a system in the tropics with zero model support.

I agree. Interesting though that the models have struggled with ULL situations in the past. I believe 2005 or 2007 was one of those years?

The global models are much better now than they were back then.

[Gustywind]

Numerous and sometimes strong showers with moderate thunderstorms are doting my area for 3 hours. I can see lightnings from my window. No yellow alert for Guadeloupe but i can assume you that bad weather conditions are spreading on us.
Regards.
Gustywind

[Blown Away]

Don't wanna come off as harsh, but I see zero reason to tag a system in the tropics with zero model support.

Logical response, but sometimes the ULL/TW interactions can result in a lot of energy like we are seeing with ex-96L now. Convection has been blowing up since this morning and there are numerous examples of ULL/TW's interacting in the area of ex-96L that resulted in a tropical cyclone. We will know in 45 minutes...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Interesting turn of events here for the former 96L, had a good feeling not to stop monitoring it. Nice blip of red in the middle.

[gatorcane]

Colorado State has moved floater back onto ex-96L:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Blown Away]

JB Interested...


Avila is not interested...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2016


Tropical wave axis in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
21N57W to 14N58W to 09N58W...and is estimated to be moving west
around 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is
embedded within a deep surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Latest satellite imagery shows
quite an impressive flare up of scattered moderate to strong
convection from 17N to 21N between the wave axis and the
northern Leeward Islands. Upper level diffluence present over
the northern portion of the wave is helping to sustain the
aforementioned convective activity. This wave is forecast to
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight, then move through
the central Caribbean Friday and the western Caribbean Saturday
before moving west of the sea on Sun. Gusty winds can be
expected with the wave as it quickly tracks across the Caribbean
basin.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, its passing the magic 60 degree line...thats where many say development will occur this season. Looks worthy of a mention to me...and looks to be going north of the islands

[gatorcane]

convection appears to be rapidly on the decrease now. Low-level vorticity is weak. Also wind shear looks to be on the increase with the huge Upper-Level low sitting near the SE Bahamas. No wonder models are not developing this.

[Gustywind]

Ligthnings and strong tstorms are making the show this afternoon since 1 hour . We have frequent lightnings and thunder is rumbling roughly! Numerous rounds of showers are spreading on us. Again lightnings and more lightnings here, i hope that things will came down a bit even if ... another TWAVE is supposed to come tommorow. Wet weather conditions in Guadeloupe. Stay and dry my EC neighbours.
Regards
Gustywind