Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[tolakram]

Live Visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 96 hours, vort offshore big bend of Florida near Cedar Key:

[TheStormExpert]

http://i63.tinypic.com/sxm610.jpg

92 degree waters?!!!!! Did I just see that correctly?!!!!

Yep! The Gulf of Mexico is currently a large bath tub just waiting for mischief to arrive.

[tolakram]

How about that vorticity jump from Georgia back down to the Gulf. Tells me the model doesn't have a good handle on this situation.

[tolakram]

Weatherbell, 102 hours, near storm force winds in the gulf, near that area of vorticity.

[tolakram]

Just put vorticity everywhere, something has to be right.

[gatorcane]

Yep some gale-force winds:

[caneman]

I dont see how it's possible for this to sit out there for a week!! Lord i,hope not. We'll get hammered with rain here in Tampa Bay as well the northern part of the state.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking that any development south of the FL Panhandle won't occur until Wed or Thu. I never bother looking at the Canadian (or NOGAPS) unless I am in need of a good laugh, or if I want to know what won't likely happen.

[gatorcane]

I'm thinking that any development south of the FL Panhandle won't occur until Wed or Thu. I never bother looking at the Canadian (or NOGAPS) unless I am in need of a good laugh, or if I want to know what won't likely happen.

The Canadian seems far improved this year as it does not seem to be spinning up nearly as many phantom storms. In fact I feel sometimes it has been TOO conservative with genesis. In fact the CMC shows the storm into Florida and now the Euro is showing some development as well but further north off the Carolinas and weaker.

Discussion of the possible system off SE United States developing being discussed here:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118104&start=60

[northjaxpro]

How about that vorticity jump from Georgia back down to the Gulf. Tells me the model doesn't have a good handle on this situation.

Well, at the moment the EURO is struggling to get a grip on the situation. I touched on this earlier today about just how this system is just going to stew and barely move over the next 3-4 days. Those bath waters of the GOM certainly will help the system brew up that's for sure. Big potential of heavy rainfall by early next week for people, especially the Big Bend/Panhandle region. I can't see this getting more than 50 - 100 miles off the coast based on what the EURO and UKET is depicting, although UKET late last night really attempted to try to really intensify this system. The UKET has backed off that considerably this morning.

This potential system for now looks to be a sloopy, meandering mess across the extreme NE GOM, barring something really unexpected in the next five days. Now, I will say with a caveat that any Low pressure entity or trough with ssts in the upper 80s - to lower 90s and at the least moderate shear, should always be watched extremely cautiously.

[gatorcane]

Euro has this down to 1002MB and deepening over land at 192 hours. Check out the winds across northern Florida and Georgia:

[Dean4Storms]

Live Visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

You speed that up and a nice rotation shows up near Tallahassee area or just West.

[Dean4Storms]

Holy Crap......12z ECM looks like rubbish. Spits out one closed low from NE Gulf that heads for Jax. by Sunday then turns that north then westward all while developing several different closed lows over the NE Gulf taking them northward.

[StormHunter72]

big bend area seems possible.

[NDG]

Satellite shows vorticity is elongated but getting better defined this afternoon over the Tallahassee/Apalachee Bay area. UL winds are not bad with developing divergence.

[johngaltfla]

http://i63.tinypic.com/sxm610.jpg

92 degree waters?!!!!! Did I just see that correctly?!!!!

I tend to warn people who have open cuts/wounds not to go into the water when it's above 85 degrees as it does to cause an explosion of bacteria in the Gulf.

Now back to our long weekend of rain here in Florida. Ugh.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, no marked or pronounced surface pressure falls across the Big Bend area or off shore yet. This may take awhile to happen.

[Dean4Storms]

Lowest pressures I can find using Wunderground personal stations is West and WSW of Tally which lines up with the spin you see on Satellite there. I'm seeing 29.92"

[Dean4Storms]

Drop this spin a bit SSW and it lines up with the spin seen on satellite just east on Panama City Bch.....https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-83.11,30.47,3000