Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[northjaxpro]

Lowest pressures I can find using Wunderground personal stations is West and WSW of Tally which lines up with the spin you see on Satellite there. I'm seeing 29.92"

Yeah, 1015.6 mb was the lowest surface pressure ob I found, which was in Apalachicola from last hour in the Big Bend region. I do not anticipate seeing any notable pressure falls until about another 24-36 hours or so imo. Shear does not look to be hostile over the system for the time being as well.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro much like 00z still seems rather bizarre. The low deepens over land yet a lot of the biblical precipitation falls offshore and along the coast and on up into central GA. Still shows a 44" maxima with a truly vast area of 10-20"+. I feel like the Euro is trying to signal that we could have TC development in the NE gulf which would seem to make more sense than this massive/sprawling land-based TS . Just my 2 cents.

[tropicwatch]

Yesterday's lowest pressure at my house in Panama City was 1013mb. I'm looking for it to dip below that tomorrow which should be the start. IMO.

[N2FSU]

Staying at Panama City Beach all week and the weather is definitely the worst today.

The view SE from my balcony:

g

[tropicwatch]

I got a crick in my neck

[northjaxpro]

Yesterday's lowest pressure at my house in Panama City was 1013mb. I'm looking for it to dip below that tomorrow which should be the start. IMO.

There is a little lower pressure a bit farther west in the panhandle currently. I found a 1013.6 mb pressure in the most recent ob in Crestview, the lowest I have seen to this point this afternoon.

[northjaxpro]

N2FSU, your pic could have been a rather spectacular one, but it is sideways. Give it another attempt.

[N2FSU]

N2FSU, your pic could have been a rather spectacular one, but it is sideways. Give it another attempt.

Hmmmmm...shows up correctly on my iPad. I will check into it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interesting that winds at buoy 42036 are out of the WSW

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[northjaxpro]

Interesting that winds at buoy 42036 are out of the WSW

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

Yes, that buoy is just west of Cedar Key in Apalachee Bay. That is interesting Scott to note that buoy finding a W/SW windshift, albeit the winds are light around 7kts there currently. Is this a sign we are beginning to see the origin of a developing Low pressure there on the trough axis?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Yeah these water temps are ridiculous. I remember my time share last year water temperatures getting to be like 95 degrees last summer, forget swimming in it. Its just brutal. Pools have to be topped off daily they evaporate so quick.

[jlauderdal]

Staying at Panama City Beach all week and the weather is definitely the worst today.

The view SE from my balcony:

g

powerful system already..knocking the camera over by 90 degrees

[USTropics]

The ECMWF 12z operational is completely realistic with the first low staying inland. The GFS and the ECMWF 12z operational runs are actually very similar in bringing this over western Florida and perhaps exiting off the coast of NE Florida.




You'll see in the ensembles prob % of TC genesis that in fact their is equal probability of TC genesis off the EC coast. It's a second low that forms later on that has to be watched in the NE GOM. The ensembles have been bouncing back and forth with development as well (only 20% of the ensembles had development on today's 00z run). TC genesis is still slightly down from yesterday's 12z run but increasing from the 00z and 06z run:


None of the ensembles have development in the next 48 hours:


In about 96 hours the GFS/ECMWF are sniffing out another area of vorticity in the NE GOM, that's where we'll need to watch for development as well:


The GFS keeps this hugging the coastline:

[USTropics]

Also, #lesscrinks

[tropicwatch]

yeah great pic

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z ECM EPS Probability of a TD goes up to 60% centered over the very Western FL Panhandle extending out 100 or so miles between the 10th to the 12th. I think like Wxman57 said, that period is likely the biggest threat of something tropical getting going!

[NDG]

Will somebody tell the TV Met on Fox 35 Orlando that this disturbance over the GOM is not an Upper Level low, lol.

In another news, I am watching the area I marked on the image below for possible circulation in the mid levels developing, looks fairly tight on satellite and radar.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[N2FSU]

Also, #lesscrinks

Thanks for fixing it!

[Nimbus]

Big pressure drop at the mid bay buoy near Mobile AL.
Could be slowly digging into the gulf there?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MBLA1

[stormhunter7]

Interesting vortice in that between that convection, which looks to be low or to mid level. NOT upper level. lol