Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

[floridasun78]

00z CMC still at it with a decent hurricane now into East-Central Florida next Friday, I believe the UKMET has joined in on it's 00z run with developing this wave too.

cmc not good tropical forecast models i been told better models are gfs other models

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers
just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic. An area of
low pressure could form in the middle of next week between
Florida and Bermuda while the activity moves west-northwestward
and then northward over the Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[AutoPenalti]

Welp, whatever happens from here on out depends on that ridge building in.

[Kazmit]

Looks like the season is starting to ramp up... This could be a threat to Florida, the East Coast, or Bermuda in the long run. Is this or the disturbance in the northeastern GOM invests yet?

[TheStormExpert]

Siding with the Euro.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the season is starting to ramp up... This could be a threat to Florida, the East Coast, or Bermuda in the long run. Is this or the disturbance in the north-western GOM invests yet?

This entity we have been following for over a week, which was ex-96L, which we have followed while it has traversed across the tropical Atlantic.

[LarryWx]

00z CMC still at it with a decent hurricane now into East-Central Florida next Friday, I believe the UKMET has joined in on it's 00z run with developing this wave too.

cmc not good tropical forecast models i been told better models are gfs other models

Hi Florida,
That is correct. When the CMC has been on its own over the years, it ended up way off the vast majority of the time. Therefore, in a large majority of the cases in the tropics when the GFS,Euro, and UKMET don't even come close to agreeing with the CMC (especially on multiple runs), I treat the CMC as very, very likely to be fictitious. The CMC loves to overdevelop tropical systems as well as hit the SE US so often that Joe Bastardi has nicknamed it "Crazy Uncle". When even JB calls it that, one should know to take it with a huge grain of salt in these situations. Thank goodness this is the case because otherwise the coast of FL and other parts of the SE US/Gulf coast would be ravaged a whole lot more than has actually occurred and far fewer people would live near the coast in all likelihood.

[centuryv58]

00z CMC still at it with a decent hurricane now into East-Central Florida next Friday, I believe the UKMET has joined in on it's 00z run with developing this wave too.

cmc not good tropical forecast models i been told better models are gfs other models

Hi Florida,
That is correct. When the CMC has been on its own over the years, it ended up way off the vast majority of the time. Therefore, in a large majority of the cases in the tropics when the GFS,Euro, and UKMET don't even come close to agreeing with the CMC (especially on multiple runs), I treat the CMC as very, very likely to be fictitious. The CMC loves to overdevelop tropical systems as well as hit the SE US so often that Joe Bastardi has nicknamed it "Crazy Uncle". When even JB calls it that, one should know to take it with a huge grain of salt in these situations. Thank goodness this is the case because otherwise the coast of FL and other parts of the SE US/Gulf coast would be ravaged a whole lot more than has actually occurred and far fewer people would live near the coast in all likelihood.

Well something seems to be happening in that area, CMC or no CMC.

[gatorcane]

We have the 00Z UKMET on board:

[floridasun78]

let see other models show by tue UKMET and cmc only showing that area

[JaxGator]

let see other models show by tue UKMET and cmc only showing that area

The Euro is showing it too.

[LarryWx]

let see other models show by tue UKMET and cmc only showing that area

Also, the UKMET is showing a much weaker system recurving into E NC as opposed to the CMC plowing a cane into EC FL. The UKMET and Euro are similar, however. Their general idea looks much more likely to me than the CMC FL H hit from this.

[LarryWx]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastar ... 2348685312

Even JB thinks the CMC is too strong & too far west. He thinks this "may be close to NC late in week". So, he is going much more in the UKMET/Euro direction than the CMC.

[BobHarlem]

The CMC seems to be reacting to the northeast Gulf disturbance to pull it west, not sure I'd believe it, although if both of these things develop, it will be interesting to see who they interact.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like CMC drops it. Proving its unreliability. ECMWF and UKMET are probably right with OTS.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like CMC drops it. Proving its unreliability. ECMWF and UKMET are probably right with OTS.

Of course, for tropical synoptics, always best to go to the reliable EURO, GFS and UKMET models than the CMC.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers
just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic. This activity
is expected to move northwestward and northward, and an area of
low pressure could form in the Atlantic by the middle of next week
between Florida and Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[GlennOBX]

The NHC is now showing position and "shading" graphics for this area of storminess. Does that not mean they now consider it an invest? I'm not sure what the criteria are for designating an invest, but I would think this would be one of them.

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

[floridasun78]

The NHC is now showing position and "shading" graphics for this area of storminess. Does that not mean they now consider it an invest? I'm not sure what the criteria are for designating an invest, but I would think this would be one of them.

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

i don't see invest until late mon or tue depend how look on monday

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET going with development as it rides along the east coast of the United States. Outerbanks of North Carolina impacted.