Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I disagree with nhc a bit on this 20% but they probably know something I'm missing or expectations land interaction soon


Seems to be looking really good right now.

[northjaxpro]

Not sure why they lowered the chances, was it because of land interaction?

That is probably the reason. However, the actual Low Pressure area as far as I am concerned is definitely getting better defined right now.

[ronjon]

Yeah definitely starting to wrap up. NHC probably dropped the 5 day due to over land as both GFS and Euro want to take the vorticity inland in 24 hours. Could it make to TD status by then...possibly.

[NDG]

The models have it moving back inland, the reason they have lowered the chances but it doesn't make a difference, the Nature coast will still get the same effects.

[ronjon]

Btw, I'm getting hammered by heavy tropical rains (little thunder) up here on the nature coast in Hernando County. Over an inch the last hour with two inches the prior 2 days.

[mobilebay]

There is an new invest coming up on satellite page

[northjaxpro]

Yeah definitely starting to wrap up. NHC probably dropped the 5 day due to over land as both GFS and Euro want to take the vorticity inland in 24 hours. Could it make to TD status by then...possibly.

I think this system has a decent chance of possibly attaining depression status. The system's proximity to the coast will inhibit its full potential, but due to the ssts of the NE GOM, and relatively low shear currently over the area, I think the system looks fairly good currently. I definitely think that this should have been declared an invest at least 6 hours ago.

[mobilebay]

Yeah definitely starting to wrap up. NHC probably dropped the 5 day due to over land as both GFS and Euro want to take the vorticity inland in 24 hours. Could it make to TD status by then...possibly.

I think this system has a decent chance of possibly attaining depression status. The system's proximity to the coast will inhibit its full potential, but due to the ssts of the NE GOM, and relatively low shear currently over the area, I think the system looks fairly good currently. I definitely think that this should have been declared an invest at least 6 hours ago.

As I stated earlier the invest just went up on the floater page

[JtSmarts]

It's gonna be a mess no matter what, so it would be nice to burn off another name.

[stormhunter7]

looks like we have invest now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[mobilebay]

looks like we have invest now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Are my comments invisible? That's what I've been saying

[stormhunter7]

also see TAE AFD...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=AFD

[stormhunter7]

looks like we have invest now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Are my comments invisible? That's what I've been saying

Opps, i hadn't refreshed the page in a while, was looking at other data sites.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah definitely starting to wrap up. NHC probably dropped the 5 day due to over land as both GFS and Euro want to take the vorticity inland in 24 hours. Could it make to TD status by then...possibly.

I think this system has a decent chance of possibly attaining depression status. The system's proximity to the coast will inhibit its full potential, but due to the ssts of the NE GOM, and relatively low shear currently over the area, I think the system looks fairly good currently. I definitely think that this should have been declared an invest at least 6 hours ago.

As I stated earlier the invest just went up on the floater page

Did not see your post here earlier. I posted probably just as you informed about NHC updating designating 98L. I apologize about that.

[mobilebay]

looks like we have invest now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Are my comments invisible? That's what I've been saying

Opps, i hadn't refreshed the page in a while, was looking at other data sites.

Lol I thought my posts wasn't t going up or something.

[mobilebay]

I think this system has a decent chance of possibly attaining depression status. The system's proximity to the coast will inhibit its full potential, but due to the ssts of the NE GOM, and relatively low shear currently over the area, I think the system looks fairly good currently. I definitely think that this should have been declared an invest at least 6 hours ago.

As I stated earlier the invest just went up on the floater page

Did not see your post here earlearlerier. I posted probably just as you informed about NHC updating designating 98L. I apologize about that.

Lol. We are good.

[TheStormExpert]

I would have raised the 2-day percentages to 30% just by looking at it and left the 5-day percentages at 30%. This is invest worthy in my opinion.

Also I thought this was going to be in the NE GoM until mid-week or am I missing something?

[mobilebay]

Where can you go to get the model runs for 98L?

[Aric Dunn]

It is definitely starting to organize and if it can stay offshore long enough I dont see any reason it couldn't develop. Already has a closed wind field. and a tighter center wont take long with the amount of convection already developing.

[tropicwatch]

An Invest with no number