Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[TheAustinMan]

Where can you go to get the model runs for 98L?

Until the disturbance in the NE Gulf of Mexico is declared as an investigative area, statistical guidance won't initiate on the system. That said the basin-wide version of the HWRF (which appears to be experimental) has the disturbance's vorticity signature moving into Florida, emerging into the Atlantic and curving into South Carolina without much development.

[floridasun78]

i have bad link to invest site do anyone have it?

[Emmett_Brown]

These situations generally confuse me... when would this be considered a depression? Assuming there are winds from all directions, and lower pressure, this seems to be one. I don't think there is a required wind speed needed to be classified as a depression...but I seem to remember that an area needs to persist for at least 24 hours or something.

[Aric Dunn]

These situations generally confuse me... when would this be considered a depression? Assuming there are winds from all directions, and lower pressure, this seems to be one. I don't think there is a required wind speed needed to be classified as a depression...but I seem to remember that an area needs to persist for at least 24 hours or something.

Yeah there is no wind requirement. by definition this would be a depression once a closed well defined surface circ is there ( which it appears to be from all data I have). NHC has to weigh in a lot of things before upgrading. in this case given the forecast of it moving ashore by tomorrow they most likely wont do anything.

[PTrackerLA]

Biblical rains still forecasted by the 12z Euro. Looks like a 49.9" precipitation maxima by day 10 near Panama City.

[Emmett_Brown]

These situations generally confuse me... when would this be considered a depression? Assuming there are winds from all directions, and lower pressure, this seems to be one. I don't think there is a required wind speed needed to be classified as a depression...but I seem to remember that an area needs to persist for at least 24 hours or something.

Yeah there is no wind requirement. by definition this would be a depression once a closed well defined surface circ is there ( which it appears to be from all data I have). NHC has to weigh in a lot of things before upgrading. in this case given the forecast of it moving ashore by tomorrow they most likely wont do anything.

Thanks Aric. I guess one way for this to be classified is if we start observing TS winds or something... that would force their hand

[bamajammer4eva]

Current Wind flow

https://www.windyty.com/?namConus,gust,29.198,-83.897,8

[tropicwatch]

Interestingly pressures have begun to fall quite rapidly at my house in Panama City. From 1015mb to 1013 in past 3hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the data and storm motions per radar. a center is quite likely in here somewhere and organizing pretty steadily. And stationary or drifting south..

[tailgater]

Too elongated IMHO for depression status and not much in the way of a true east wind field

[Aric Dunn]

Too elongated IMHO for depression status and not much in the way of a true east wind field

yeah its not quite well defined enough at the moment.

[northjaxpro]

Low pressure area about 50 miles just offshore of Cedar Key and about 60 miles southeast of Apalachicola.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pressures at buoy 42036 have been falling and they have 15kt winds out of the WSW

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

That buoy is very close to where the link bamajammer4eva posted shows a center

https://www.windyty.com/?namConus,gust,29.198,-83.897,8

[Nimbus]

Around 5 or 6PM the surface pressures should be down to 29.92 at buoy 42036.
West wind currently but if the system drops further south we should see a shift.
Its a good vantage point.

[tropicwatch]

This is a good radar presentation of storm movement. When it is looping it does not look like the low is making anymore progress eastward.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That is some biblical rain heading to Tampa

[stormhunter7]

NRL Tropical Cyclone Page is changing right now. lets see if they post invest

[stormhunter7]

Well the ATCF data doesnt show true invest yet, just looks like they turned on floater for area.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Well on the way imo.

[Aric Dunn]

its in very light steering currents. maybe a slight south drift looking at current setup large surface and mid level ridge to its west