WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL TURNING
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH IS SEEN IN AN 052230Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 165.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH IS SEEN IN AN 052230Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE 15 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 30
CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

90W's origins actually trace back to the TUTT cell that was venting a yet to be classified Omais about half a week ago (picutred below), which is a beginning not dissimilar to Joaquin '15, Soulik '13, or Haitang '05. It remains to be seen if it develops into anything significant like those storms (most storms of this origin are actually rather weak), but the GFS has been going nuts with it for days worth of runs.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 164.5E, APPROXIMATELY
125 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN
THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO 15 TO 20
KNOT NORTHERLY VWS. A 062215Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS STRUGGLING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OUTFLOW OF TS 07W CONVERGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE LLCC AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

EURO getting more robust with this. Deepens this to 980mb and entirely interacts with 2 other typhoons north of the Marianas. The 2nd one SWALLOWS it...

[euro6208]

Past GFS runs wanted this to become a Category 5 and even hitting Japan as one but is weaker on latest run. It interacts with the broad system in the P.I sea, takes it south of Okinawa and slams it into Taiwan...

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 071522
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 17.4N

D. 162.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...ASCAT WINDS DEFINE LLC WITH 90W. CONVECTION WRAPS JUST
OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[1900hurricane]

Despite still dealing with shear, 90W (which is now a JMA Tropical Depression) isn't looking too bad right now. ASCAT didn't catch the eastern part of the circulation, but it's probably time for a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert at the least.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 080330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 162.2E TO 20.7N 154.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 161.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY
325 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTER DUE TO IMPROVED DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND REDUCED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. A 082241Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWED AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW THE DISTURBANCE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION WITH
FIRST WARNING IMMINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE LLCC AND THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090330Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 080227

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (W OF WAKE IS)

B. 08/0220Z

C. 17.26N

D. 160.90E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. WRAP OF .30 YIELDS DT OF 1.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART

[euro6208]

Here we go!

08W EIGHT 160808 0600 17.7N 160.8E WPAC 25 1004

[stormwise]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. A 080346Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED LLCC IN
THE SSMI IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND CURRENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD
08W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TD 08W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 08W WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THIS
RIDGE IS WEAKENING DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VWS AND
SSTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUOUS
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK
WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 08W WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
AS A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH, REINFORCING A SECOND
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE VWS AND
RESTRICT OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING
PHASE FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT THE WESTWARD
TURN, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THEY
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BUILDING STR. THIS
MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

We now have TS Conson.

TS 1606 (Conson)
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 8 August 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°05' (17.1°)
E160°20' (160.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40' (17.7°)
E156°55' (156.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°50' (19.8°)
E153°30' (153.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°30' (22.5°)
E152°25' (152.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY SHEARED BUT IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TS 08W WITH
FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
081618Z SSMIS 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION LOCATED PREDOMINANTLY TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TS
08W IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. TS 08W CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE EXTENDED RANGE TRACK FORECAST (BEYOND TAU 72) HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO RECENT GUIDANCE.
B. TS 08W WILL SOON TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. SSTS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 WHEN TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD
INCREASES, WITH THE GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET MODELS SUGGESTING A TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE NORTH.
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TS 08W. SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR, BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
BE STRONGLY DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TS 08W.
A 082047Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC, BUT MORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND
KNES, WITH RJTD COMING DOWN TO T2.0 GIVEN THE RECENT SHEARED
STRUCTURE OF 08W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS.
TS 08W CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF
WEST FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST (TAU 0 TO 48) HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE WEST OF CONENSUS AND THE EXTENDED RANGE TRACK FORECAST (BEYOND
TAU 48) HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS.
B. TS 08W HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE, SO THE
INITIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECT TO SOON TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE SYSTEM, SO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
THROUGH TAU 72 WHEN TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD
INCREASES, WITH THE GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH. THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST LIES TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS.
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TS 08W. SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR, BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
BE STRONGLY DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I wouldn't be surprised if the agencies were underestimating Conson just a little bit. A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed a few 40 kt vectors right at the edge of the pass close to the circulation center. Additionally, microwave imagery shows what appears to be a partial eyewall in development. The same microwave data also shows a bit of a northeastwards tilt with height, so it's not like Conson is on the verge of typhoon intensity or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if something like 45 kt was closer to the current actual intensity.

[NotoSans]

JMA increased to the intensity to 40 knots at 03Z. Looks like they have referenced the ASCAT pass.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 090524Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
TROUGH POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 2.0 (30 KNOTS) TO 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. TS
08W HAS MEANDERED WESTWARD ALONG THE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH TAU 24 THEN TURN NORTHWARD
AS THE STR RE-ALIGNS IN A POLEWARD ORIENTATION DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN WITH THE ECMWF AND JENS TRACKING THE
SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM
SHARPLY POLEWARD. ADDITIONALLY, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON TRACK SPEEDS SO OVERALL THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 24, TS 08W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS CONDITIONS /
OUTFLOW IMPROVE AFTER TAU 24 TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE MODEL TRACKERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFDN, HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL INDICATE A LARGE
SPREAD DUE TO SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. TS 08W SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MODERATELY SHEARED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BUILT BACK OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091758Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE EAST
OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) PERSISTS OVER TS 08W, BUT
RADIAL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
FLARING CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS
08W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES EAST OF JAPAN AND ERODES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STEERING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A CLOSER AGREEMENT COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING STILL EXIST. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, TS 08W IS FORECAST TO ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH TYPHOON INTENSITY BEING
REACHED AROUND TAU 48 WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE.
C. SIGNIFICANT TRACK AND SPEED DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 72, BUT THEY ARE IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES BY AND THE STR BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. INCREASED
SHEAR BEYOND TAU 72 SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.//
NNNN