Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[bamajammer4eva]

It appears to have started moving west which was forecast by accuweather... these are a little over an hr apart and I drew a little white line to show where the circulation appeared to be between the two times

[Aric Dunn]

we have a full closed circ. horseshoe beach reporting nne winds while cedar key reporting ssw winds.

its stalled right offshore ... if it can drift away just a little more..

its sitting right off suwanee like about 10 miles maybe..

[chaser1]

is no one else watching this its how you learn

I don't know Aric, I mean for August ya gotta admit that this is a bit "weak" for a best candidate for tropical development. Upper air seems a bit hostile from the north, to me. I'm less inclined to think proximity to land is as big of a factor to allow at least some banding to try and take place. Thus far this feature seems to be holding its own, but seemingly not making obvious improvements toward closing off a convection embeded COC (in spite of a fairly tight region of turning on radar) or really establishing much increase in organization. Then you have the "rain maker" aspect to this event. Problem here though is that according to most projections even while certain areas of less populated N. Florida may receive a tremendous 12" or more of rainfall, those locals here in Florida perhaps 100 miles away over in Jax, Orlando, or points South are apt to see perhaps less than 2-3". So I"m thinking that given the little to no model support and less than favorable upper air conditions, most of those other enthusiasts from around the country, Caribbean, and abroad are probably catching up on their Olympic sports updates and kinda sitting this one out. Fortunately NBC has had little problem selling plenty of commecial slots, so if and when this feature decides to try and take on some additional deepening or organization... you can bet this forum will become a bit more active.

[Aric Dunn]

is no one else watching this its how you learn

I don't know Aric, I mean for August ya gotta admit that this is a bit "weak" for a best candidate for tropical development. Upper air seems a bit hostile from the north, to me. I'm less inclined to think proximity to land is as big of a factor to allow at least some banding to try and take place. Thus far this feature seems to be holding its own, but seemingly not making obvious improvements toward closing off a convection embeded COC (in spite of a fairly tight region of turning on radar) or really establishing much increase in organization. Then you have the "rain maker" aspect to this event. Problem here though is that according to most projections even while certain areas of less populated N. Florida may receive a tremendous 12" or more of rainfall, those locals here in Florida perhaps 100 miles away over in Jax, Orlando, or points South are apt to see perhaps less than 2-3". So I"m thinking that given the little to no model support and less than favorable upper air conditions, most of those other enthusiasts from around the country, Caribbean, and abroad are probably catching up on their Olympic sports updates and kinda sitting this one out. Fortunately NBC has had little problem selling plenty of commecial slots, so if and when this feature decides to try and take on some additional deepening or organization... you can bet this forum will become a bit more active.

The Olympics are going on ? lol


also never said it was the "best candidate" .. just saying it a great opportunity to watch with an array of observations the development of a tropical system. you can compare satellite presentation to radar and surface obs and apply that to what a system from out in the atlantic or just away from direct obs likely is doing its invaluable.... its a great thing to watch the evolution. but I guess im a scientist and get excited for different reason. the "wow" factor comes in many forms for me. I have been through and chased many and still love the intial development part.. it so delicate everything has to come together just right.. a fully on hurricane is already set.. .. anyway ill watch by my self

[bamajammer4eva]

NHC just said NEXT?! lol

A weak area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico just northwest of Cedar Key, Florida, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has been
drifting northeastward during the past 24 hours, and is now forecast
to move inland later today before significant development can
occur. Heavy rainfall is still expected over portions of the
northern and central Florida peninsula, as well as much of the
Florida panhandle, during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Aric Dunn]

by the way.. cedar key pressure continues to fall.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC just said NEXT?! lol

A weak area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico just northwest of Cedar Key, Florida, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has been
drifting northeastward during the past 24 hours, and is now forecast
to move inland later today before significant development can
occur. Heavy rainfall is still expected over portions of the
northern and central Florida peninsula, as well as much of the
Florida panhandle, during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

I love it.. they are betting on it moving inland hence the low probability. of course they have access to the dynamical models without an invest. I still enjoy watching this develop even if it moves inland later tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

So the NHC believes it's moving northward?

[Aric Dunn]

So the NHC believes it's moving northward?

well today its migrated/reformed southward. they are expecting it to move im assuming inland. given the slight northerly shear its could keep reforming with the midlevel energy as it drops south as it seems to have today. the NAM did hint at the midlevel energy doing such a thing though nothing about a surface reflection.

[stormwise]

Its certainly worth keeping a close eye on this, it is looking juicy on radar atm and everyone knows the models are obviously not infallible.

[Aric Dunn]

Its certainly worth keeping a close eye on this, it is looking juicy on radar atm and everyone knows the models are obviously not infallible.

especially with small systems. they are notorious at missing them. it just has to stay offshore.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest radar image--red dot is bottom image from my last radar post. Perhaps it is making a cyclonic loop and will begin moving NE soon

[Stormcenter]

You've got to admit it is looking pretty healthy this early morning for something that the NHC believes has less 10% chance of developing. IMO

[Stormcenter]

Nice little satellite loops here.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[Aric Dunn]

Latest radar image--red dot is bottom image from my last radar post. Perhaps it is making a cyclonic loop and will begin moving NE soon

they follow the convection.. that at the moment is south then east.. so a loop is quite likely. its also going to reform and move towards the convection... as it appears to be doing. getting farther south.

now appears to be wsw of cedar key.
which by the way the part of the state is getting a lot of rain right now.

[Stormcenter]

Sure "looks" like it's shifted westward some. IMO

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest radar image--red dot is bottom image from my last radar post. Perhaps it is making a cyclonic loop and will begin moving NE soon

[img]http://i.imgur.com/UGMNwDT.png

they follow the convection.. that at the moment is south then east.. so a loop is quite likely. its also going to reform and move towards the convection... as it appears to be doing. getting farther south.

now appears to be wsw of cedar key.
which by the way the part of the state is getting a lot of rain right now.

Looks like maybe reforming NW?? 29.4N/84W near the nw end of that marine warning

[Aric Dunn]

pressure now falling close to "rapidly" from the two reporting stations at cedar key and horseshoe key. well more so near cedar key where its drifting around near at the moment offshore.. decent pressure drops given the hugh background pressures.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest radar image--red dot is bottom image from my last radar post. Perhaps it is making a cyclonic loop and will begin moving NE soon

[img]http://i.imgur.com/UGMNwDT.png

they follow the convection.. that at the moment is south then east.. so a loop is quite likely. its also going to reform and move towards the convection... as it appears to be doing. getting farther south.

now appears to be wsw of cedar key.
which by the way the part of the state is getting a lot of rain right now.

Looks like maybe reforming NW?? 29.4N/84W near the nw end of that marine warning

yeah at this point whatever surface reflection will be bouncing all over depending on the convection. like i mentioned before with the slight northerly shear pushing the convection to the south the low level structure or circ may reform with it. hard to tell exactly. but appears to be happening at least in the short term.

[Stormcenter]

Very interesting developments tonight/morning. We now have a much better organized disturbance that is still over very warm waters and not moving much. IMO