Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[SFLcane]

blp as much as id like to put some thought in a 384 hr CFS model it isn't looking to promising. ECMWF says nope

[blp]

blp as much as id like to put some thought in a 384 hr CFS model it isn't looking to promising. ECMWF says nope

Yeah I know I am reaching hard lol. Funny how every year I always want to hit fast forward button past July and August and move into September.

[tolakram]

Here we are again at least warming up for season cancel.

I was surprised by Earl, I still say coming out of an el nino things don't get going until late August. The Euro showed these height anomalies over 2 weeks ago so no surprise there, and GFS has showed increasing shear every run now and has continued to be wrong as shear remains below normal in every region.

Euro shows the EPAC becomes extremely unfavorable as well as these high pressure (and height) anomalies spread west.

A normal season is a slow season for many of us.

[cycloneye]

I suspect as my collegue Mark said,those season cancel posts will resurrect very soon.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/762661938434338822

[cycloneye]

Rays of hope from ECMWF.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/762676904423923713

[Siker]

Personally, I find it very impolite of the WPAC to waste the first half of the year only to pickup just in time to steal the thunder from the peak of the Western Hemisphere seasons .

[centuryv58]

Rays of hope from ECMWF.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/762676904423923713

Which I guess means the updated CSU season forecast from Dr. Phil K was correct in saying that this season would be very unpredictable.

[gatorcane]

Below is today's shear tendency graphic. Compared to last year at this time, shear is more favorable for TC development across most of the Atlantic basin. Now it is a matter of pressures lowering across the basin and some instability to return. Appears we are seeing another uptick on convection over Africa (eastern 1/3), probably a little too far out in the models to pick up on this yet:

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/762705017065267201

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/762705017065267201

It is still within +/- of normal range though at 9.5 units or so. By the end of the month normal will be over 30 that's when we can go back and discuss this. That will require a couple of hurricanes between now and then to stay on pace or one really good major to collect 20 units. But for now what we have is about what should be to start August.

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/762705017065267201

It is still within +/- of normal range though at 9.5 units or so. By the end of the month normal will be over 30 that's when we can go back and discuss this. That will require a couple of hurricanes between now and then to stay on pace or one really good major to collect 20 units. But for now what we have is about what should be to start August.

If you take away Alex and the numbers for that storm you are well below. A lot of the experts dismiss using the numbers for Alex as it was not technically in the current season. I am just pointing out that experts are noticing the ACE start to slip below.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Realtime/northatlanticstormstats.html

[Ntxw]

If you take away Alex and the numbers for that storm you are well below. A lot of the experts dismiss using the numbers for Alex as it was not technically in the current season. I am just pointing out that experts are noticing the ACE start to slip below.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Realtime/northatlanticstormstats.html

Still though, it's not like Alex was a huge ACE producer for a hurricane. It is similar to most decent tropical storms as it wasn't long lived. The difference is still only one storm or so. Again it would be a more meaningful stat at the end of the month when quality counts to collect units.

[LarryWx]

What ACE was predicted by the consensus for this entire season? Below normal, near normal, or above normal? Anyone know?
At least according to Bastardi, most of the action is expected pretty far west in the basin, which I'd think would mean shorter durations on average as compared to MDR dominating geneses. If almost all of the stronger storms were to end up forming in the western basin and if the number of NS/H/MH were to end up near normal, I'd think that would likely lead to a lower than normal ACE? Maybe that's how this season will most likely play out.
Any opinions on this?

[tarheelprogrammer]

If you take away Alex and the numbers for that storm you are well below. A lot of the experts dismiss using the numbers for Alex as it was not technically in the current season. I am just pointing out that experts are noticing the ACE start to slip below.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Realtime/northatlanticstormstats.html

Still though, it's not like Alex was a huge ACE producer for a hurricane. It is similar to most decent tropical storms as it wasn't long lived. The difference is still only one storm or so. Again it would be a more meaningful stat at the end of the month when quality counts to collect units.

True but still pointing out the ACE slipping not trying to ruin anyone's season. Things can always change in the tropics but it better change quickly because in that link you can see by the end of the month ACE is typically around 32.4. Without Alex we would be sitting at 6.7.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What ACE was predicted by the consensus for this entire season? Below normal, near normal, or above normal? Anyone know?
At least according to Bastardi, most of the action is expected pretty far west in the basin, which I'd think would mean shorter durations on average as compared to MDR dominating geneses. If almost all of the stronger storms were to end up forming in the western basin and if the number of NS/H/MH were to end up near normal, I'd think that would likely lead to a lower than normal ACE? Maybe that's how this season will most likely play out.
Any opinions on this?

Most were predicting normal ACE and most still are.

[Ntxw]

What ACE was predicted by the consensus for this entire season? Below normal, near normal, or above normal? Anyone know?
At least according to Bastardi, most of the action is expected pretty far west in the basin, which I'd think would mean shorter durations on average as compared to MDR dominating geneses. If almost all of the stronger storms were to end up forming in the western basin and if the number of NS/H/MH were to end up near normal, I'd think that would likely lead to a lower than normal ACE? Maybe that's how this season will most likely play out.
Any opinions on this?

A decent major hurricane would still add quite a bit of units though. As we saw with Joaquin if they move slow enough can rack up 20-30 units. So a couple of these majors would get us 50-75% of the seasonal total which is about par. But yeah, if there is a lack of long tracking recurves then the odds of a hyper active season decreases (150+ units). But a near normal ACE season still in play.

[tolakram]

If you take away Alex and the numbers for that storm you are well below. A lot of the experts dismiss using the numbers for Alex as it was not technically in the current season. I am just pointing out that experts are noticing the ACE start to slip below.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Realtime/northatlanticstormstats.html

Average is 10.7 for August 10th, we are at 9.9. Without Alex we are at 6.7. which was the normal on July 24th, 15 days ago. We will be even more below average 15 days from now (19.3 average) unless something unexpected happens. I'm not sure what this means other than a comparison to an averaged number.

Do you think falling behind the ACE average foretells of a slower than forecast season?

If we get to the end of August and the two week model output still shows unfavorable conditions then I think it's a safe bet the forecast for a normal season will be too high. There is always that small chance of some crazy late season burst but it's not likely in my opinion. I also think that regardless of activity; if the cape verde season is below normal the Atlantic will be hard pressed to come up with average ACE just due to the limited lifespan of storms. I have no data to back that up, just a hunch.

The fact that the EPAC is forecast (models anyway) to experience these same hostile conditions is interesting, but I don't know what it means, if anything.

[cycloneye]

Then comes to the surface this question

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Then comes to the surface this question

This wouldn't be the deciding year--2007 had 74 ACE but that was with an anomaly two Cat 5's--the rest of the storms that year tended to be mostly weak and fairly short-lived despite being strong La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

Here we are again at least warming up for season cancel.

I was surprised by Earl, I still say coming out of an el nino things don't get going until late August. The Euro showed these height anomalies over 2 weeks ago so no surprise there, and GFS has showed increasing shear every run now and has continued to be wrong as shear remains below normal in every region.

Euro shows the EPAC becomes extremely unfavorable as well as these high pressure (and height) anomalies spread west.

A normal season is a slow season for many of us.

Euro has been presistent in developing a weak TS at the least within 240 hours.