2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Javlin]

In 1992, Hurricane Andrew had degenerated into almost an open wave before it made its monster comeback.

and Katrina had dropped off everybody's radar

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/a55495ec16.png
Only one run so far, EC has a feature coming off Africa @240hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS at 18z seems to be showing off and on some systems trying to form after day 8 which is around the 21st which would also coincide with what WXMAN57 said

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[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro still has a strong Tropical Wave exiting the West Coast of Africa in 240hrs.(10 days).

[stormwise]

GFS has the wave coming off @174hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

This morning's 06z GFS has the same tropical wave that both yesterday's 12z and today's 00z Euro develop off the West Coast of Africa crossing the Tropical Atlantic and developing as it approaches the NE Caribbean in the extreme long-range. Still very far out with the models but there seems to be now some consensus between the two major Global Models of a strong tropical wave exiting the West Coast of Africa within the next 8-10 days and trying to spin up as it traverses the Tropical Atlantic and approaches the NE Caribbean Islands.

[blp]

CMC has it as well.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS drops it.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has much less of CV area but has a new one near Bermuda.

[Siker]

That Bermuda area is the wave currently exiting Africa, Euro sees a similar situation with it.

[Siker]

Another wave to watch will be the one emerging in 4-5 days. Latest Euro shows a closed 1010mb low as it comes off Africa at 120 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro still quite bullish with the wave off Africa in the long-range, but note how far north in latitude it is emerging. Plenty of time to watch this and iron out the details:

[TheStormExpert]

Yep gatorcane it is even slightly more bullish than previous runs, but that latitude could put a big fork in development or if it somehow develops allow it to go directly out to sea in the Easter Atlantic.

[Siker]

Euro again advertising the potential for a brief spinup with the wave coming off of Africa in 4 days, showing a 1009mb closed low SE of the Cape Verde Islands.

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, 06Z GFS basically showing nada through August 27th... Yawn!

[TheStormExpert]

Meanwhile, 06Z GFS basically showing nada through August 27th... Yawn!

I know this is starting to get really old and annoying! Through 06z August 27th the GFS has basically nothing of interest.

Meanwhile everyone keeps saying the tropical activity will eventually pickup but when if at all is my question? It keeps getting pushed back.

[centuryv58]

Meanwhile, 06Z GFS basically showing nada through August 27th... Yawn!

I know this is starting to get really old and annoying! Through 06z August 27th the GFS has basically nothing of interest.

Meanwhile everyone keeps saying the tropical activity will eventually pickup but when if at all is my question? It keeps getting pushed back.

Don't know why people go crazy or go yawn with each run of a model. Bad way to watch weather cycles.

[StormHunter72]

Hope it stays quiet.

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, 06Z GFS basically showing nada through August 27th... Yawn!

I know this is starting to get really old and annoying! Through 06z August 27th the GFS has basically nothing of interest.

Meanwhile everyone keeps saying the tropical activity will eventually pickup but when if at all is my question? It keeps getting pushed back.

Don't know why people go crazy or go yawn with each run of a model. Bad way to watch weather cycles.

Your right, I shouldn't have quoted 1 model run, the point I attempted to make was the global models continue to show mostly nothing or very weak low's going into the heart of the season...

[Bocadude85]

I know this is starting to get really old and annoying! Through 06z August 27th the GFS has basically nothing of interest.

Meanwhile everyone keeps saying the tropical activity will eventually pickup but when if at all is my question? It keeps getting pushed back.

Don't know why people go crazy or go yawn with each run of a model. Bad way to watch weather cycles.

Your right, I shouldn't have quoted 1 model run, the point I attempted to make was the global models continue to show mostly nothing or very weak low's going into the heart of the season...

I am not sure we are going to see a lot of activity this year but I am thinking we are going to see one or two big threats to the USA this year. Probably one threat in September and then another in October.