Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1381 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:06 pm

Canceling hurricane season in early August is like giving away your snowblower in Buffalo in mid November because it happens to be sunny and 50 that day.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1382 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:35 pm

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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1383 Postby FireRat » Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:58 am

Hahaha wxman57, I thought I was seeing something fishy! :lol:

Man if this year's season blows up late Aug into Sept we may be in for a heck of a ride! 1998,1999 & possibly 2010 as analogs should make many wary on here. Who knows, we may end up with something like 19/9/6 when all is said and done, with many end-game surprises.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1385 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:40 am

A contributing factor the next week to two of the slowdown is because of the +AAM, +Mountain Torque, and north Pacific Aleutian low. All features of an atmospheric Nino-like conditions. WPAC activity aiding. All reminders that officially we are not in a la nina yet and that it has been unable to really go off.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1386 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:57 am

The Atlantic has had only 1 named storm formation since 6/20 - fewest since 2009 (when 0 formed between 6/20-8/10)

Per Philip Klotzbach
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1387 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:43 am

Gotta be patient, fellow trackers!

I remember so many seasons in the late 1990s that just woke up on or just after August 16th. I just really worry about something exploding close in to shore. I often wonder what Humberto would have done had it spent another 24-48 hours out over the Gulf.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1388 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:49 am

Not sure why this has been a surprise

I was saying that the MDR would be quiet. It already exceeded by expectations with Earl in the western Caribbean (I do include the Caribbean south of 20N as part of the MDR)

What we have had is the last 3 storms affecting the Gulf.

Expect more of that going forward. We nearly had another Gulf storm had that low yesterday been 100 miles farther south
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1389 Postby Kalrany » Wed Aug 10, 2016 4:56 pm

Very interesting read through. Wxman got me, too!

I just don't see why people are so adamant that the season has to fail or fly. The pros seem to be indicating average for the season as a whole, so until we are at least past the halfway point, it doesn't seem like we can really even comment. As stated by others, we tend to get more active further in, so that halfway point may well be too premature too, but it would at least be a bit more reasonable.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1390 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:07 pm

Already we have quite a few storms up to here. We have already passed the "E" storm in early August. 1998 didn't get their "E" named storm until early September, and we all know how exciting that season was. So starting in mid/late August, there will probably be a huge parade of storms just like the EPac created in July. I still think this will be an active season- the majority of the storms are yet to come.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1391 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:12 pm

looking at the MU, it is one upper low after another affecting the Atlantic from about 65W to 45W.

If I could take a vacation to the Caribbean, I would have considered taking one this Aug or September. It's cheap and the hurricane risk this year is below normal
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1392 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:25 pm

Alyono wrote:looking at the MU, it is one upper low after another affecting the Atlantic from about 65W to 45W.

If I could take a vacation to the Caribbean, I would have considered taking one this Aug or September. It's cheap and the hurricane risk this year is below normal

There was literally just a hurricane in the Caribbean last week.

Do you think about the things you type before posting sometimes?
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1393 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:28 pm

Alyono wrote:looking at the MU, it is one upper low after another affecting the Atlantic from about 65W to 45W.

If I could take a vacation to the Caribbean, I would have considered taking one this Aug or September. It's cheap and the hurricane risk this year is below normal


Those upper lows are pretty critical in western basin seasons though. I don't know if they are a cause of just a by-product. But if they are either moving west across the basin or west then backing off sw or splitting, that portends surface activity thereafter.

Interesting tweet on the AMO being near +0.45. I don't feel like going to that thread, but clearly we remain in warm phase.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1394 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:53 pm

Alyono wrote:looking at the MU, it is one upper low after another affecting the Atlantic from about 65W to 45W.

If I could take a vacation to the Caribbean, I would have considered taking one this Aug or September. It's cheap and the hurricane risk this year is below normal

Saying this is just downright silly! Yes shear has increased some throughout the Atlantic basin but it is nowhere near the record strong levels of last season when we had one major hurricane and another hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic during the strongest El Niño on record. Besides a few on here already stated that these TUTT's are not semi-permanent like the last few seasons.


Current Shear Maps :darrow:
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Shear Levels Region by Region :darrow:
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1395 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:05 pm

Alyono wrote:looking at the MU, it is one upper low after another affecting the Atlantic from about 65W to 45W.

If I could take a vacation to the Caribbean, I would have considered taking one this Aug or September. It's cheap and the hurricane risk this year is below normal



%#^#. Shame on me if I caught wxman's troll and missed yours. Haha on me if so.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1396 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:15 pm

What Alyono is saying is that the latest GFS run is showing upper level low after upper level between 45W and 65W, which is true. We should start seeing these upper level lows in fewer numbers as we head into August but the GFS is not showing this. Whether it is an indicator for the rest of August and September remains to be seen.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1397 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:What Alyono is saying is that the latest GFS run is showing upper level low after upper level between 45W and 65W, which is true. We should start seeing these upper level lows in fewer numbers as we head into August but the GFS is not showing this. Whether it is an indicator for the rest of August and September remains to be seen.

But hasn't the GFS's shear forecast been almost completely wrong? I remember someone else on here saying so.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1398 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:23 pm

Just out of curiosity I went back and looked at 2005 and went through the ACE (current to date) and around this time the Atlantic had already counted up over 80 units (through Irene)! That's incredible and comparable to what just happened over in the EPAC. Clearly we are not getting a repeat of that currently but just some astronomical values. What a hard feat it is to repeat that and how anomalous that is.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1399 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:19 pm

:uarrow: Wonder if the 2005 East Pacific Season could be a good analog in terms of total numbers for the 2016 Atlantic Season? There were 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#1400 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:49 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Wonder if the 2005 East Pacific Season could be a good analog in terms of total numbers for the 2016 Atlantic Season? There were 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.


I do not think comparing this year's EPAC numbers to 2005 is a good idea since on average the EPAC is more active than the Atlantic. Hence, the opposite is also not a fair comparison, though it might just happen to be that 15-7-2 may be reasonable numbers for the season, but with a different ACE.
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