Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[canefan]

Looks like another good sized spin up a good distance from the main broad low a couple hundred miles south of panama city. You can see it in the visible, enhanced and radar.

[Steve]

Saw a tv radar model on wdsu which showed the main circulation around Pearlington, MS. it shoots a surface low north around 90W but spins a ton of energy around here. However more gets left back and continues west toward SW LA/SE TX coasts though it's unclear how far the energy can get and whether it spins up a surface low in the NW Gulf or remains a general broad area of low pressure. I still think S MS takes the brunt of the rainfall over the next 36 hours or so. I saw where there was a 20+ Doppler just offshore of the LA coast today, so people are going to get wet.

[stormwise]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25se.htm

[abajan]

They've finally removed it (again ) from being mentioned in the TWO:

[HeeBGBz]

Today our bad weather is really supposed to kick in here in coastal Mississippi. I have to get out in it because my 5th grandchild is arriving by Cesarean about noon today. May have to nickname her Stormy.

[wxman57]

Nothing but rain from this system. Development chances are near zero. Perhaps some of this rain will reach SE TX over the next few days. It's been a bit dry here lately.

[lrak]

That sounds like a great name, congratulations

[lrak]

Nothing but rain from this system. Development chances are near zero. Perhaps some of this rain will reach SE TX over the next few days. It's been a bit dry here lately.

You think we may get some too wxman57?

[Steve]

Nothing but rain from this system. Development chances are near zero. Perhaps some of this rain will reach SE TX over the next few days. It's been a bit dry here lately.

You think we may get some too wxman57?

Hey Karl,

It depends. Models diverge. The 06Z NAM 84 hour precipitation total seems to indicate most of the moisture is north and east of me. It's been pretty good with this system since it was in Appalachee Bay.. I'm waiting for the 12z to come out in a few minutes to see if it moved towards what the GFS was saying at 06Z. GFS 06Z 84 Hour run has about 4-5" in metro Houston, and 15-20" falling in South Central, Louisiana (Houma, Morgan City) in the next day or two. GFS continues the piece of energy offshore in the NW Gulf and migrates it westward. 12z NAM should be out in 5 minutes or so.

Edit to say that the 12Z NAM maintains the bulk of the rainfall in SE MS. Parts of Hancock and Harrison Counties, Mississippi and a bunch of parishes west and south of New Orleans are currently under flash flood warnings (Terrebonne, Lafourche, St. Charles, St. John, St. James, Ascension etc.). Diamondhead, MS had 6+ already, and Pass Christian, 4"+. Being that NAM supports South MS and GFS supports SC LA, it's undetermined whether this can get closer to Texas or not.

[MGC]

Steve, I'd say the 12Z NAM has verified here in Pass Christian. Just ventured outside and dumped the gauge, 7 1/2 inches of rain and its still coming down at a steady pace. Just glanced at the radar and I think another couple of hours rain for me.....MGC

[wxman57]

Nothing but rain from this system. Development chances are near zero. Perhaps some of this rain will reach SE TX over the next few days. It's been a bit dry here lately.

You think we may get some too wxman57?

It may be difficult for the rain to reach the desert of south Texas. However, the 12Z GFS does indicate some rain down your way by Sunday.

[hriverajr]

I concur... things don't look promising for deep south Texas at the moment.

[tailgater]

6 to 8 inch totals in the last 3 hrs. in the western portion of my Parrish but only sprinkles here. This is the wettest summer I can remember.

[lrak]

Nothing but rain from this system. Development chances are near zero. Perhaps some of this rain will reach SE TX over the next few days. It's been a bit dry here lately.

You think we may get some too wxman57?

Hey Karl,

It depends. Models diverge. The 06Z NAM 84 hour precipitation total seems to indicate most of the moisture is north and east of me. It's been pretty good with this system since it was in Appalachee Bay.. I'm waiting for the 12z to come out in a few minutes to see if it moved towards what the GFS was saying at 06Z. GFS 06Z 84 Hour run has about 4-5" in metro Houston, and 15-20" falling in South Central, Louisiana (Houma, Morgan City) in the next day or two. GFS continues the piece of energy offshore in the NW Gulf and migrates it westward. 12z NAM should be out in 5 minutes or so.

Edit to say that the 12Z NAM maintains the bulk of the rainfall in SE MS. Parts of Hancock and Harrison Counties, Mississippi and a bunch of parishes west and south of New Orleans are currently under flash flood warnings (Terrebonne, Lafourche, St. Charles, St. John, St. James, Ascension etc.). Diamondhead, MS had 6+ already, and Pass Christian, 4"+. Being that NAM supports South MS and GFS supports SC LA, it's undetermined whether this can get closer to Texas or not.

Yippy!

[lrak]

Nothing but rain from this system. Development chances are near zero. Perhaps some of this rain will reach SE TX over the next few days. It's been a bit dry here lately.

You think we may get some too wxman57?

It may be difficult for the rain to reach the desert of south Texas. However, the 12Z GFS does indicate some rain down your way by Sunday.

Awesome!

[Steve]

6 to 8 inch totals in the last 3 hrs. in the western portion of my Parrish but only sprinkles here. This is the wettest summer I can remember.

That's what's so different than 1998 which was incredibly hot and dry here in the summer. I remember that year distinctly based on Frances and Georges, but more specifically, as noted before, as that was the year I learned what "Wasping" was. That's kids with tennis rackets vs. wasps everywhere. They love it hot and dry, and they were pretty thick that year.

mgc,

looks like after this batch dies down, more will hit later or tomorrow and last for a couple more days. NAM 12Z shows the low right along the MS/LA border and then a second one just west of there in a day or two. Looks like another 5+ isn't out of the question for you all.

lrak,

What's funny about South Texas, is that the NAM brings that wave just east of Florida directly toward you all by way of the Yucatan. It's the NAM, so big crystal of salt is to be taken with that. I figured that energy would sort of get stretched out and hit the SC coast after it was clear it wasn't going to develop. This looks like southern energy from that system heading straight for you. It's still a little early in August, but I'm wondering if that can't crank out a surface low on its way. Stay tuned the next 3-4 days.

[lrak]

6 to 8 inch totals in the last 3 hrs. in the western portion of my Parrish but only sprinkles here. This is the wettest summer I can remember.

That's what's so different than 1998 which was incredibly hot and dry here in the summer. I remember that year distinctly based on Frances and Georges, but more specifically, as noted before, as that was the year I learned what "Wasping" was. That's kids with tennis rackets vs. wasps everywhere. They love it hot and dry, and they were pretty thick that year.

mgc,

looks like after this batch dies down, more will hit later or tomorrow and last for a couple more days. NAM 12Z shows the low right along the MS/LA border and then a second one just west of there in a day or two. Looks like another 5+ isn't out of the question for you all.

lrak,

What's funny about South Texas, is that the NAM brings that wave just east of Florida directly toward you all by way of the Yucatan. It's the NAM, so big crystal of salt is to be taken with that. I figured that energy would sort of get stretched out and hit the SC coast after it was clear it wasn't going to develop. This looks like southern energy from that system heading straight for you. It's still a little early in August, but I'm wondering if that can't crank out a surface low on its way. Stay tuned the next 3-4 days.

I will Steve Thanks!

[Kazmit]

Looks like it won't develop (no surprise here). But is causing a lot of rain on the panhandle, Mississippi, and in Alabama.

[NDG]

This low pressure area has had a very good UL divergence over the last couple of days or so thus why it has kepted a very good cyclonic organization even inland.

[Hammy]

Given how well this held together over land with the upper environment I'd hate to see what we would've had if it made it over water.