2016 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#221 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:55 pm

Out to 384 hours...Looking like a very active period ahead. MJO forecast to strengthen over the area and amplify for most of the next 2 weeks with the possibility of a Kelvin Wave crossing over too...


Image
Image
Image

Image
Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#222 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:03 pm

TSR maintains its previous outlooks and predicts the 2016 Northwest Pacific typhoon
season will be quiet with activity well below the 1965-2015 climate norm.


August update from TSR.

Still forecasting 22 TS, 13 TY, and 7 MTY with an ACE of 231...


Only difference from last month's update is a decrease of 8 in ACE...

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
0 likes   

stormwise

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#223 Postby stormwise » Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:28 pm

Image
You can understand looking at the sat-pic why the models looked crazy in the solutions, vorts are plenty atm.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#224 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:36 am

stormwise wrote:Image
You can understand looking at the sat-pic why the models looked crazy in the solutions, vorts are plenty atm.



Nice picture! Not sure if this is comparable to the one that spawned last year's trio of July typhoons, but this one looks a lot crazier... Imagine those spins becoming bonafide TC's, the models wouldn't be so crazy after all...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1221
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Tokyo
Contact:

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#225 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Aug 10, 2016 5:53 am

0 likes   
James - Documenting tropical cyclones...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#226 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:06 am

Smilar to what happened to the EPAC in July, is happening to the WPAC although it's MJO enhanced activity.

Unfortunately the WPAC can always be on steroids so the storms come out stronger and thus land areas may be harmed.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#227 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:55 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Good old GFS...



It was forecasting 892 mb for 00Z run....

Lower to 882mb? Now that's something...:double:

Both runs indicate a devastating strike for Taiwan...
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#228 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:11 am

EURO also on board with a very intense typhoon in the P.I Sea...

Image

All in all it develops 4 more TC's including this one not designated as invests...

GFS almost similiar except it has a direct hit for Okinawa at 384 hours from another Typhoon...
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#229 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:39 am

The WPAC off the charts as usual. Still the #1 spot globally for TC's...Still amazes me...

Image
Image

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#230 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:15 am

The outbreak continues....
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#231 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 11, 2016 1:35 pm

The latest GFS and CMC are going monsoon gyre mode again. I'd probably lean away from such a solution since similar solutions have shown up and failed to verify so far these past couple of weeks. The ECMWF really hasn't shown the gyre solution that I can remember lately, so today's 12Z run (which is currently running) may provide a nice measuring stick.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#232 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:01 am

That monsoon over the WPAC literally eating up the whole basin.

Image
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#233 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:31 am

Image
0 likes   

stormwise

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#234 Postby stormwise » Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:44 pm

Image
hko has a cyclone in the south china sea in 2 days.
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#235 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:15 pm

:uarrow:

The models have been showing this for some runs now making landfall west of Hong Kong.

CMC stalls a strengthening typhoon south of HK for 6 days and moves inland... :lol:

EURO 988 mb into Leizhou Peninsula north of Hainan.

NAVGEM similiar to EURO on typhoon moving west.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:46 pm, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#236 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:24 pm

1900hurricane wrote:The latest GFS and CMC are going monsoon gyre mode again. I'd probably lean away from such a solution since similar solutions have shown up and failed to verify so far these past couple of weeks. The ECMWF really hasn't shown the gyre solution that I can remember lately, so today's 12Z run (which is currently running) may provide a nice measuring stick.


EURO also on board with this. Similiar to what happen earlier this month when Omais. Like the rain and winds will never stop.

Image

Has 5 developing in the basin...
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#237 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:29 pm

GFS on 7 drug storms developing one after another...

NAVGEM still on the outbreak develops 3 more...

CMC close to 10 storms overall...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#238 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:47 pm

euro6208 wrote::uarrow:

The models have been showing this for some runs now making landfall west of Hong Kong.

CMC stalls a strengthening typhoon south of HK for 6 days and moves inland... :lol:

EURO 988 mb into Leizhou Peninsula north of Hainan.

NAVGEM similiar to EURO on typhoon moving west.


Large system southeast of Hong Kong. Should be an invest soon.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#239 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:03 pm

The storm names are coming at a good clip now, but most aren't doing too much intensity-wise so far, which is shades of '99 a little. Still, we'll probably end up blowing '99 out of the water at least (that year only ended up with 110 units of ACE, the lowest I'm aware of in the WPac).
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

stormwise

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#240 Postby stormwise » Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:09 pm

# EURO6208 looking at the sat-pic you posted it looks a monsoon depression in the south china sea , have not been really following the main models in the WPAC over the past few days there's been to much convention going on and the models have had a rough time of it with solutions. :ggreen:
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, Google Adsense [Bot] and 43 guests