2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

12z GFS=Nada.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/763783846273757184

[MetroMike]

Hope it stays quiet.

Ok and what is the reason we like to visit this board?
Not to watch nothing.

[alienstorm]

Interesting that some west winds were reported in Barbados from the wave that going by.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Dean4Storms]

Some rotation starting to show up with the Wave entering the Carib. on MIMIC-TPW....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

Some rotation starting to show up with the Wave entering the Carib. on MIMIC-TPW....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

Shear ahead of it. Death is almost a certainty. However, the tropics always have surprises.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS has a wave come off of Africa at about 72hrs and develops a closed low at 192hrs, this may be something to watch but I think the GFS may be too slow with this feature

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Siker]

GFS now developing that wave into a compact tropical storm:

[Hurricaneman]

GFS now developing that wave into a compact tropical storm:

could be something that has to be watched farther west

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

The fact that the models are starting to pop tropical lows now is a sign that things may get cooking starting next week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Siker]

Eventually gets pretty sheared out north of the Caribbean by 384 hours as it follows an upper level low.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/d78e268666.png
00ZGFS with what looks a closed off depression @234hrs, usually anything past 110hrs don't get my interest.

[NDG]

You would think Dr Phil K would not be wasting his time on looking at the GFS windshear forecast when first of all it is so unpredictable and secondly the GFS has been too aggressive in forecasting higher than average windshear for the Caribbean in its medium to long range forecast all season long when in fact windshear has been below average over all.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/764079275079184385

[StormHunter72]

Hope it stays quiet.

Ok and what is the reason we like to visit this board?
Not to watch nothing.

To get information if something does form.

[NDG]

12z GFS=Nada.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/763783846273757184

I wonder if he is going to tweet this today, I doubt it because is forecast is for a quiet rest of August over the Atlantic:

[centuryv58]

12z GFS=Nada.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/763783846273757184

I wonder if he is going to tweet this today, I doubt it because is forecast is for a quiet rest of August over the Atlantic:

Yes, he may be a bit at odds with NOAA. Somewhere, in all the predictions, the "truth" may lay. Still installing shutters though.

[Hurricaneman]

While not likely being the 384GFS at 6z but the steering current as modeled looks like the ridge builds back in beyond 384hrs and would be a threat to the southeastern US but what it may tell us is that starting around the 20th the tropical atlantic wakes up at about 120hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[gatorcane]

You would think Dr Phil K would not be wasting his time on looking at the GFS windshear forecast when first of all it is so unpredictable and secondly the GFS has been too aggressive in forecasting higher than average windshear for the Caribbean in its medium to long range forecast all season long when in fact windshear has been below average over all.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5079184385

It's tempting to look at model runs that go out to 384 hours and make predictions.

When it comes to genesis, model accuracy dramatically starts dropping especially after a week out.

I see signs digging into the model runs that things may gradually start becoming more favorable after about ~Aug 20th onward.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS doesn't develop the wave coming off Africa a week or so from now anymore but instead has two tropical cyclones traversing the Tropical Atlantic in the extreme long-range. What we might be able to take from this is a pickup in activity in the Atlantic(especially the Tropical Atlantic) by the end of this month.

[chaser1]

Curously, the NAV-GEM and CMC are continuing to indicate inactivity. I guess they've finally been neutered

[Siker]

12z Euro ensembles are pretty enthusiastic about the wave coming off in a week, as well as the one behind it (to a lesser extent).