Alyono wrote:given the overall pattern, it may be until the second week of September before we see another storm. Could be like 1992 in that regard where aside from Andrew, nothing happened until the unnamed Newfoundland storm formed. Looks like we got very lucky with this Gulf disturbance in that it stayed over land. That was the type of system I was expecting before the start of the season to cause big trouble
Wasn't it said 1992 was the best analog for this year?
Yep, 1992 was mentioned by several within this thread back in the Spring as an analog year. I actually used that year as an analog to help come up with my 10/5/2 numbers for this season. I also looked at 1973 as well.
Like the past several years going back to 2013, mid-level dry air continues to be a killer for Atlantic MDR activity and so far this year is no different despite no El Nino.