2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Frank2]

Models in the 200's and 300's are ignored unless consistent down at 168 hrs, then they are taken seriously...

[USTropics]

Ensembles aren't really picking up on anything within the next 240 hours:



ECMWF was hinting at potential development off the coast of Africa a few days ago, but it has backed off since then:



The NOAA Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability shows a slight chance of formation as well:



There is a TW getting ready to exit Africa, but we're currently still seeing a strong subtropical ridge, promoting sinking air. Shear looks to be an issue as well in the East Atlantic currently until roughly 40W. Later down the road, SAL may also be an inhibitor for the current TW.

Current ECMWF operational run does show a pretty large TW departing the coast in 168 hours, which is perhaps a more likely candidate for development:



The GFS operational run is in agreement with this. There is model agreement now on the subtropical ridge pushing south and west during the next 5 days, then becoming much weaker in ~10 days. That may allow for the TW mentioned above to find more favorable conditions.

It's a wait and see for now, we'll have to see if models trend towards development in the coming days.

[Siker]

It's that 168 hour wave that the EPS picked up on at 12z.
Here's the 18z GEFS; cannot post the EPS but it is extremely similar:



The wave coming off in 48 hours looks to not quite have the proper structure to spinup. The overnight (00z and 06z) GFS runs which developed it depicted a tight area of vorticity remaining distinct enough to develop past the Cape Verdes, but the 12z and 18z show this area becoming wrapped up with a northern portion of the wave, broadening the low and slinging it too far northward.

[Hurricaneman]

It's that 168 hour wave that the EPS picked up on at 12z.
Here's the 18z GEFS; cannot post the EPS but it is extremely similar:



The wave coming off in 48 hours looks to not quite have the proper structure to spinup. The overnight (00z and 06z) GFS runs which developed it depicted a tight area of vorticity remaining distinct enough to develop past the Cape Verdes, but the 12z and 18z show this area becoming wrapped up with a northern portion of the wave, broadening the low and slinging it too far northward.

The 0zGFS seems to have that tight area of low pressure like last yesterdays runs

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[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS now says we should watch the wave getting ready to emerge the west coast of Africa in 2 days.

[stormwise]

https://s10.postimg.org/7ie7ysj8p/Selection_425.png
GEFS ens model area with a closed circulation, in the boc @42hrs

[Hurricaneman]

What I'm seeing from the last few runs of the models is not full on development but hints of development which the models could latch on to something or somethings in the long run or even the medium run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[stormwise]

Model says the wave will be @.. T2.6... @168Hrs.

[Dean4Storms]

I cannot show it here as I'm getting it from Weatherbell but the ECMWF @00z shows a Low closing off in the NE GOM south of the FL Panhandle @ 234 hours then moves it northward into the Panhandle. At least something closer to home to watch future forecasts on!

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF showing two strong waves and one looks like a storm over the next 5 days. I have a feeling the storms are coming in a week or two. MJO or not.

[TheStormExpert]

Either the 12z Euro is being overly bullish with these waves or we have have somethings to watch the next 7 days.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Either the 12z Euro is being overly bullish with these waves or we have have somethings to watch the next 7 days.

I think it is a sign that the tropics are going to come back alive.

Edit: Uh Oh I hope the ECMWF is wrong. Developing storm heading toward the islands. First wave looks to clear the way for the wave behind it.

[gatorcane]

Out to 216 hours and the Euro is actually strengthening this system as it heads west in the MDR. We are so used to the Euro doing just the opposite with these eastern Atlantic systems.

[chaser1]

https://s10.postimg.org/7ie7ysj8p/Selection_425.png
GEFS ens model area with a closed circulation, in the boc @42hrs

Interestingly while also just now looking at the latest run of the ensembles. I was noticing something interesting where the GFS was not really showing development either.

In the longer range, the EURO is beginning to sniff out one or more systems to possibly develop in the far E. Atlantic, the GFS is not whatsoever at the moment. Thats an odd reversal of the norm. On the other hand though, the GEFS ensemble members starting at about 66 hours from now seem far more bullish on this 12Z run than they were on the prior 0Z run. For some reason however, they have yet to have influenced the actual GFS run at this time. Likely reason appears to be that in the 4-10 day range there seems to be an overall "popcorn effect" of increased member forecasts depicting lower pressures spread out over several different points in the E. Atlantic, rather than just one or two concentrated areas of lower pressure. I"m curious to see if this evenings 0Z GFS might begin to come in line a bit more with the EURO. While the EURO is potentially detecting tropical development prior to the GFS here, that might not bode too well for the Leewards/Windwards if this comes to pass. Might this be indicative that the EURO is sniffing out a significantly deeper system to develop in the mid to long range? Of course this is only one model run and we need to see if if there's going to be some model consistancy here.

[chaser1]

Out to 216 hours and the Euro is actually strengthening this system as it heads west in the MDR. We are so used to the Euro doing just the opposite with these eastern Atlantic systems.

Yeah, very good point. Lately nearly any model that might have picked up on a area of low pressure area in the MDR, has accurately weakened those areas as they've progressed westward. This seems to be a sign that overall conditions are close to that point of becomming much more favorable for tropical development. That, or that this may well become one significant tropical system.

[gatorcane]

Just so everybody is clear, I circled the waves of interest.

Pouch 97l has a thread that was recently started:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118140

The wave further inland over Africa is the wave the Euro is developing heading west in the MDR through 240 hours:

[Hammy]

the longer range, the EURO is beginning to sniff out one or more systems to possibly develop in the far E. Atlantic, the GFS is not whatsoever at the moment. Thats an odd reversal of the norm.

The GFS has been absurdly inconsistent this year with what it shows--showing phantom storms followed by nothing, and then 4-5 days before Earl formed, it was showing nothing through the run.

Interesting to note that the Euro's storms have shown up now for several runs, and would fit with a post I made that this year could be a 2015-minus-ElNino-shear sort of situation. The MDR was more active than expected last year and for all we know it could surprise us again this year.

[Alyono]

the longer range, the EURO is beginning to sniff out one or more systems to possibly develop in the far E. Atlantic, the GFS is not whatsoever at the moment. Thats an odd reversal of the norm.

The GFS has been absurdly inconsistent this year with what it shows--showing phantom storms followed by nothing, and then 4-5 days before Earl formed, it was showing nothing through the run.

Interesting to note that the Euro's storms have shown up now for several runs, and would fit with a post I made that this year could be a 2015-minus-ElNino-shear sort of situation. The MDR was more active than expected last year and for all we know it could surprise us again this year.

there were signs in the climate models that the eastern MDR was going to be very active last year

[Siker]

Pretty significant signal on the 12z Euro ensembles over the entire 15-day run, with ~20/51 members developing a tropical cyclone of some strength from that wave and ~15/51 sub-1000mb (multiple hurricanes and a few majors in that group).

[Kingarabian]

Pretty significant signal on the 12z Euro ensembles over the entire 15-day run, with ~20/51 members developing a tropical cyclone of some strength from that wave and ~15/51 sub-1000mb (multiple hurricanes and a few majors in that group).

Don't know what to make of the Euro and its ensembles. They've been showing similar trends in the EPAC and nothing has materialized.