2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Alyono]

Zip on the mu.

The ec run was likely a bad run. However it also showed weakening as it approaches the islands. Thus the environment is not favorable

[Yellow Evan]

Last 2 EPS runs also showed support for an active Cape Verde train in 1-2 weeks, although the 12z EPS was more aggressive with this than the other 2.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I personally believe the GFS is wrong this time and believe it will cave some to the ECMWF at 0z.

[stormwise]

the 00z depicts the Cape Verde wave closed with 30-35 kts sw @90hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm a little skeptical of the latest 12z Euro run showing 2 tropical cyclones within the next 10 days in the Tropical Atlantic. It has shown storms only to drop them after just a few runs. If the Euro continues to advertise development in a few days than I'll be more interested.

[Hammy]

I'm a little skeptical of the latest 12z Euro run showing 2 tropical cyclones within the next 10 days in the Tropical Atlantic. It has shown storms only to drop them after just a few runs. If the Euro continues to advertise development in a few days than I'll be more interested.

I honestly don't recall the Euro having any phantom storms this year in the deep tropics--more often than not it misses ones that do form. And there has been a trend towards development over the last several runs already.

[Alyono]

I'm a little skeptical of the latest 12z Euro run showing 2 tropical cyclones within the next 10 days in the Tropical Atlantic. It has shown storms only to drop them after just a few runs. If the Euro continues to advertise development in a few days than I'll be more interested.

I honestly don't recall the Euro having any phantom storms this year in the deep tropics--more often than not it misses ones that do form. And there has been a trend towards development over the last several runs already.

the EC has been the CMC in the EPAC this year

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS and Euro are both showing development behind pouch17, maybe something to watch for in the next weak or so

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[stormwise]

https://s4.postimg.org/o3k58b8jh/cfs_ms ... 18_21t.png
CFS-v2 develops the wave looks a bit quick tho .



The long range is a flip of the coin, good or nasty not be taken seriously atm.
https://s4.postimg.org/gvk7ey28d/Selection_429.png

[USTropics]

ECMWF briefly develops the two waves getting ready to depart Africa in the coming days, but is most bullish on a third wave now:

[TheStormExpert]

Clearly the Euro doesn't know what it wants to do pushing back development now to the third wave.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Clearly the Euro doesn't know what it wants to do pushing back development now to the third wave.

It still develops the first and keeps some semblance of a system after.

[stormwise]

Still there and closed on the 06z @114hrs.


On the ens looks a vigorous MT ramps up off Cape Verde.

[tolakram]

Thread for first wave: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118140

Interesting how the GFS has nothing + hostile conditions while the euro is lighting up. How many of these longer term forecasts predicting hostile conditions are GFS based?

Shear remains below normal in the tropical Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Euro with development of the wave behind pouch 17l also. It seems the Cape Verde season is about ready to commence.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models really starting to light up the Atlantic. Even without favorable CCKW and MJO. Scary to think what it would look like with both of them being favorable. WOW!

[chaser1]

Captain, long range sensors are picking up all weapons systems have suddently come on line!

[TheStormExpert]

The train is ready to leave the station! 12z Euro has 3 tropical cyclones forecasted to develop through 10 days.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET has basically zilch. I see it develops a low out of pouch 97l but it is weak. That is about it for the UKMET through 168 hours. It's odd to see the ECMWF the most bullish of all models with these Cape Verde waves.

[Kingarabian]

12Z UKMET has basically zilch. I see it develops a low out of pouch 97l but it is weak. That is about it for the UKMET through 168 hours. It's odd to see the ECMWF the most bullish of all models with these Cape Verde waves.

Yeah. It's also showing a TD to form in the CPAC in 48 hours. Only model to do so. Should be a good test to see if it's handling storms right or not.