ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
AL, 98, 2016081400, , BEST, 0, 104N, 162W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081406, , BEST, 0, 101N, 172W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 183W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081418, , BEST, 0, 98N, 194W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081500, , BEST, 0, 97N, 204W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118140
AL, 98, 2016081406, , BEST, 0, 101N, 172W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 183W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081418, , BEST, 0, 98N, 194W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081500, , BEST, 0, 97N, 204W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118140
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
12z Euro showed not much problem with shear and dry air for the next 4-5 days.
Last edited by NDG on Sun Aug 14, 2016 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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ATL: FIONA - Models
Model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Convection is persisting unlike any wave we have seen come off Africa this season so far:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Its best chance of development is over the next 3-4 days. Beyond then, wind shear increases along its path. It's particularly strong from the Gulf through the Caribbean this week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SHIPs and TCLP show this becoming a Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Its best chance of development is over the next 3-4 days. Beyond then, wind shear increases along its path. It's particularly strong from the Gulf through the Caribbean this week.
I doubt it will get anywhere near those areas looking at early models - I think recurve before 50W is most likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Its best chance of development is over the next 3-4 days. Beyond then, wind shear increases along its path. It's particularly strong from the Gulf through the Caribbean this week.
What if 98L moves North of the Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
This well developed, this far east and north the possible wife of Shrek is destined to be a fish anyway.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
The wife of Shrek
That's exactly what I thought when I first saw the name Fiona on the list.
That's exactly what I thought when I first saw the name Fiona on the list.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Hard to say what the windshear forecast will be over the Caribbean after 5 days from now, but if an UL anticyclone accompanies 98L I am sure windshear will relax over the Caribbean just like it did for Earl, ULLs/TUTTs north of the Caribbean have been retrograding westward all season long, have not been permanent like last year.
That's even if 98L survives the central Atlantic and if it even tracks through the Caribbean.
That's even if 98L survives the central Atlantic and if it even tracks through the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SHIPS shows not much problem with windshear, except for marginal warm enough waters by days 4-5 and drier conditions by then.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982016 08/15/16 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 42 48 52 53 58 64 66
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 42 48 52 53 58 64 66
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 30 34 37 39 42 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 18 15 15 13 8 7 9 8 7 4 7 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 1 1 2 0
SHEAR DIR 54 39 33 44 51 69 88 142 196 233 298 287 260
SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 133 137 137 132 121 116 117 118 120
ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 133 132 132 137 135 128 117 111 112 113 115
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 82 79 76 73 72 69 69 70 71 67 63 57 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 6 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 85 85 83 72 67 62 58 49 52 54 52
200 MB DIV 42 22 7 5 18 4 15 8 26 32 35 35 13
700-850 TADV 0 -7 -10 -13 -15 -13 -8 -4 -3 0 -2 7 8
LAND (KM) 481 592 716 836 937 1123 1253 1388 1547 1782 2030 1934 1780
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.7 11.9 13.4 14.7 15.6 16.3 16.5 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 20.4 21.6 22.9 24.1 25.1 27.0 28.7 30.3 31.9 34.1 36.4 38.9 41.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 18 19 11 12 9 6 4 5 3 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
NDG I agree. It is too early to know the fate of 98l. The GFS and ECMWF differ by at least 700-800 miles as far as where 98l will be in a week's time. Not only that, the ECMWF as of the 00z Friday run just two days ago showed zero development of 98l due to hostile conditions now look what it is showing. That tells me the forecast is highly uncertain here a few days out let alone after a week's time. The question is even if 98l encounters the more hostile conditions, can it find better conditions further down the road?
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:NDG I agree. It is too early to know the fate of 98l. The GFS and ECMWF differ by at least 700-800 miles as far as where 98l will be in a week's time. Not only that the ECMWF as of the 00z Friday run just two days ago showed zero development of 98l due to hostile conditions now look what it is showing. That should tell you the forecast is highly uncertain here. The question is even if 98l encounters the more hostile conditions, can it find better conditions further down the road?
Not saying it will be a cat 4-5 but an example of that was Andrew in 1992.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
The structure is strung out even though you see the hot tower. It is a likely mess underneath. The popcorn thunderstorms ahead are not banding. It is still very low level driven.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
If this can get going soon (wind shear is moderate), this has a good chance at surviving the direr air since shear is low.
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