2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Kazmit]

All aboard! The Cape Verde train is ready to depart! But really, it is likely that a cluster of storms could develop off of these waves during the remainder of this August.

[Alyono]

lets not forget that the Euro has been one of the WORST models this year. It was BRUTAL with Earl, burying it deep into Central America when we know that did not happen. It has also been indicating so many phantoms.

With the EC being the only model showing development, we can probably discount it entirely as trash.

EC will be back to the best in a couple of years once it has the computing capacity to be cloud resolving. However, this 9km resolution was an epic mistake. It is playing out just as I said it would

[stormwise]

GFS model output, has a decent moisture envelope wrapping into the lpa.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the European model surprised most of us and its forecasts are verifiying. Now lets see if these systems are capable of generating any decent ACE.

[NDG]

I wonder how long will it take for Dr Phil K to start tweeting about how models have trended towards an active second half of the month. Like I have said before his forecast was for a fairly quiet August especially over the MDR so I bet he will not tweet just based on models unless actual storms form, just like when Earl formed.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach?ref_s ... r%5Eauthor

[arnpry]

A brief break in the action?
 https://twitter.com/arnpry/status/765168088694321152

[Dean4Storms]

lets not forget that the Euro has been one of the WORST models this year. It was BRUTAL with Earl, burying it deep into Central America when we know that did not happen. It has also been indicating so many phantoms.

With the EC being the only model showing development, we can probably discount it entirely as trash.

EC will be back to the best in a couple of years once it has the computing capacity to be cloud resolving. However, this 9km resolution was an epic mistake. It is playing out just as I said it would

06z GFS is all aboard with the EC this morning.

[ronjon]

I know its way out in the GFS 06Z model period, but combined with the ECM both models are showing the tropical atlantic coming to life over the next week to 10 days - right on climatological schedule.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016081506&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=0

[SFLcane]

I wonder how long will it take for Dr Phil K to start tweeting about how models have trended towards an active second half of the month. Like I have said before his forecast was for a fairly quiet August especially over the MDR so I bet he will not tweet just based on models unless actual storms form, just like when Earl formed.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach?ref_s ... r%5Eauthor

He might not lol his tweets are killing me. :0(

[PTrackerLA]

I wonder how long will it take for Dr Phil K to start tweeting about how models have trended towards an active second half of the month. Like I have said before his forecast was for a fairly quiet August especially over the MDR so I bet he will not tweet just based on models unless actual storms form, just like when Earl formed.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach?ref_s ... r%5Eauthor

Seems to only post about negative factors for development in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder how long will it take for Dr Phil K to start tweeting about how models have trended towards an active second half of the month. Like I have said before his forecast was for a fairly quiet August especially over the MDR so I bet he will not tweet just based on models unless actual storms form, just like when Earl formed.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach?ref_s ... r%5Eauthor

Seems to only post about negative factors for development in the Atlantic.

Cause it supports his conservative forecast. Personally I think the Atlantic is more favorable than he makes it sound to be.

[NDG]

I wonder how long will it take for Dr Phil K to start tweeting about how models have trended towards an active second half of the month. Like I have said before his forecast was for a fairly quiet August especially over the MDR so I bet he will not tweet just based on models unless actual storms form, just like when Earl formed.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach?ref_s ... r%5Eauthor

Seems to only post about negative factors for development in the Atlantic.

Cause it supports his conservative forecast. Personally I think the Atlantic is more favorable than he makes it sound to be.

The interesting fact is that one of the CSU team's analog year for their forecast is 1998, which their forecast for 1998 was fairly conservative even in their August '98 update, so I hope this is not a repeat.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems to only post about negative factors for development in the Atlantic.

Cause it supports his conservative forecast. Personally I think the Atlantic is more favorable than he makes it sound to be.

The interesting fact is that one of the CSU team's analog year for their forecast is 1998, which their forecast for 1998 was fairly conservative even in their August '98 update, so I hope this is not a repeat.

Of course forecasting a season in advance was much more difficult back then.

[tolakram]

Cause it supports his conservative forecast. Personally I think the Atlantic is more favorable than he makes it sound to be.

I reject this idea. If we were talking Bastardi, maybe, but the CSU team always seems above the "rooting" aspect of forecasting. He is calling for a normal season so if anything a dead Atlantic would have meant busting high.

Once again we have all these tools for predicting activity but reality does it's own thing. I've wondered of some of these MJO and Kelvin wave ideas would take a backseat in a more active season. What we are seeing now seems to be flying in the face of data posted just 48 hours ago.

[Alyono]

lets not forget that the Euro has been one of the WORST models this year. It was BRUTAL with Earl, burying it deep into Central America when we know that did not happen. It has also been indicating so many phantoms.

With the EC being the only model showing development, we can probably discount it entirely as trash.

EC will be back to the best in a couple of years once it has the computing capacity to be cloud resolving. However, this 9km resolution was an epic mistake. It is playing out just as I said it would

06z GFS is all aboard with the EC this morning.

should have waited for the 12Z before declaring a trend is in place

[NDG]

All I know is that the Euro has done better with genesis so far in the Atlantic basin than the GFS, it was the only global model that was developing Earl in the area south of Jamaica, even the CMC failed to develop Earl. It also did fairly well with Bonnie & Colin.

[gatorcane]

One thing I am noticing with the global models is that they seem to want to develop some troughiness and cutoff lows off the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. in about a week's time. So far this summer it has been nothing but a large and strong Bermuda High off the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. So that could help recurve threatening systems from the east over the next week or two if the models are correct (big "IF").

[ronjon]

12z ECM remaining consistent with development in the MDR.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atltropics&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016081512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=195

[cycloneye]

Chasers like Josh wonder when they will go to do their thing.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/765278430728368128

[stormwise]

GFS @96HRS.