Tropical wave wsw of CV Islands (Pouch 21L) Invest 99L is up

[Hurricaneman]

What the models are telling us is this bears watching in the Antilles{Greater and lesser} and possibly even the US east coast but that could change being in the long range

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[StormHunter72]

Models always change. Especially long range.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah anything after 240hrs.(10 days) when the Euro ends it's run is pure fantasyland and will likely change over a dozen times.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like it's August 15th out there folks. Time to start watching closely!

By the way just kicks I checked out the 00z EC Ensembles and the control run (Out to 360 hours) has strengthening system in the SE Bahamas heading WNW...

[Alyono]

and that looks to have lasted for a whole 1 run

12Z MU already drops it. That idea was a major BS flag anyways

[Kingarabian]

and that looks to have lasted for a whole 1 run

12Z MU already drops it. That idea was a major BS flag anyways

I'd wait for confirmation from the Euro first. But yeah. Drops it after 1 run...

[Alyono]

barely even a wave in the 12Z. Nothing to see here, move along

As for the EC, I would not give it much credence

[TheStormExpert]

and that looks to have lasted for a whole 1 run

12Z MU already drops it. That idea was a major BS flag anyways

Why were you not buying it? We are almost at the peak of the season that solution is very possible in my opinion.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS says what is this 99L/Gaston you speak of. Odd that it dropped the storm that quickly. We shall see what the ECMWF shows but the GFS is predicting a massive amount of shear and that seems to be what kills this wave.

[Siker]

Considering the Euro has led the way with 98L (which all models have come into agreement on developing, by the way), I'm going to go ahead and trust it more than the GFS right now. You can say what you want about the Euro's new convective scheme, but it hasn't earned the name "King Euro" for no reason. When you have ensemble support for a classic tropical system in mid-August, there's no reason to downplay it.

[SFLcane]

barely even a wave in the 12Z. Nothing to see here, move along

As for the EC, I would not give it much credence

Nothing to see in this basin! Pure garbage.. maybe some sts near Nova Scotia that's about all you bet on lately.

[gatorcane]

CMC continues to show development of this wave in the MDR. Looks to start to deepen it in the long-range like the Euro but doesn't show anything as strong as the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

Giving up on this wave after just only seeing it on the GFS in the extreme long-range for one run is nonsense. The GFS has done poorly this season in picking up development and or sticking with it. Just look the situation with Earl for example, it didn't show much becoming of Earl until it became a strong tropical storm then boom it finally got it's head right.

Let's see if the Euro drops it first this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is more east than Euro at 240 hours. We will see what the 12z Euro has.

[Alyono]

Considering the Euro has led the way with 98L (which all models have come into agreement on developing, by the way), I'm going to go ahead and trust it more than the GFS right now. You can say what you want about the Euro's new convective scheme, but it hasn't earned the name "King Euro" for no reason. When you have ensemble support for a classic tropical system in mid-August, there's no reason to downplay it.

you CANNOT dismiss the issues with the resolution. That shows a total lack of understanding of numerical modeling.

King euro, more sound bites

[Siker]

Considering the Euro has led the way with 98L (which all models have come into agreement on developing, by the way), I'm going to go ahead and trust it more than the GFS right now. You can say what you want about the Euro's new convective scheme, but it hasn't earned the name "King Euro" for no reason. When you have ensemble support for a classic tropical system in mid-August, there's no reason to downplay it.

you CANNOT dismiss the issues with the resolution. That shows a total lack of understanding of numerical modeling.

King euro, more sound bites

You also can't dismiss ensemble support from both the GFS and the Euro. Maybe the Euro will drop it at 12z and you'll be right, who knows. My last sentence of that comment still stands.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the Euro has dropped it too. Considerably weaker this run.

[tolakram]

Looking at 138 hours on the 12Z euro it appears to come off the coast as a tropical storm.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at 138 hours on the 12Z euro it appears to come off the coast as a tropical storm.

Is it not the 3rd system that its been showing?

[gatorcane]

MUCH weaker on this 12Z Euro run through 168 hours. Looks like just a wave with a weak surface low feature