Possible Hurricane For West Central Florida??

#1 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 4:03 am

The Euro and Canadian (CMC) are jumping on developing a tropical system that could affect the west coast of Florida by late this weekend or the first part of next week :o :o The last time the Tampa bay Area was hit by a major hurricane was Oct. 25, 1921. Could this be the year? Thoughts and comments welcomed

Robert

Euro Model:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... est!!step/

Canadian Model:
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

Toni - 574 · #2 Postby **Toni - 574** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:01 am

Yes Robert I did see that this AM when I was looking at some of the model runs. Still way to early, but do believe that something will get goin in that area soon. There is a certain amount of comfort for our area though, since our area is targeted 1st you can bet that the models will jump around several times before the correct bulleye's is narrowered down. Wait and see, seems like we have been doing that a lot lately! :o

Toni

#3 Postby **Deenac813** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:02 am

Yikes.. I dont like the look of that.. I hope they are wrong!

#4 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:18 am

Agree Toni-574 about the models that will change with time. Will just have to watch, wait & see what , if anything developes and moves our way.

Robert 8-)

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:31 am

It appears the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are jumping on the old frontal boundary in ths Gulf. Wind shear should decrease as the upper-lvl trof lifts out, but there isn't much down there now. As for a hurricane, if the system develops as those models suggest, then there probably wouldn't be enough time for it to reach hurricane strength.

I'd be more concerned about the tropical wave south of Jamaica reaching the southern Gulf next week. The wave may bring enough enerty to the southern Gulf for tropical development to occur. If it did develop, Florida would be the target.

#6 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:41 am

Thanks a lot y'all :roll:

Just what I needed to read to start this beautiful day in West Central Fla. Seriously, I expect the storm season still has a few surprises for us and this might be one of them.

Steve H. · #7 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:45 am

Beat me to it Robert. Yes this area is really not the washed out frontal boundary, but the wave that is pushing by the TUTT in the western Caribbean. We're watching. 8-)

Aimless · #8 Postby **Aimless** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:50 am

I saw this on the NOGAPS model and was wondering as well. They seem to imply rather rapid development, which seemed unusual to me.

Any prof-mets have comments? Could it be a strong wave? Could it have time to develop more than that ( by Friday it looks like)? I have a HUGE reunion over on the west coast this weekend .. ack ack gasp.

Aquawind · #9 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:35 am

wxman57 wrote: I'd be more concerned about the tropical wave south of Jamaica reaching the southern Gulf next week. The wave may bring enough enerty to the southern Gulf for tropical development to occur. If it did develop, Florida would be the target.

I agree it looks very healthy this AM. With it heading towards improving conditions and in a prime area. We can already see the interaction with the curvature of the clouds in the Caribbean. Soon to be mentioned in the TWO and might actually be what the models are picking up on..imho

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Here is a current shear tendancy map.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I have been looking very hard for a vacation spot in Jamaica over Thanksgiving the last few days coincidently..anybody with suggestions would be appreciated.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:49 am

Well ,the lull may come to and end next week..we will just have to wait and see :wink:

ChaserUK · #11 Postby **ChaserUK** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:08 am

yes but look where it goes after FL! Way too soon to be sure though......

BEER980 · #12 Postby **BEER980** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 9:55 am

ChaserUK You checking flight schedules to Florida yet?

#13 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 11:40 am

Cool. Maybe in a day or two we will see if it is still around to worry about.

Steve H. · #14 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 11:42 am

Don't pack your bags yet UK, 12Z CMC much less aggressive, but again its out only to 72 hours. Would like to see 0Z 9/25 for this. Seems GFS and CMC are showing multiple lows off the east coast and the one coming from the Caribbean. The actual low down in the Caribbean seems to be sitting near the coast of Nicaragua. Somethings gonna develop in the next 84 hours. What and where it goes are the questions IMO.

#15 Postby **Steve** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 11:45 am

>>It appears the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are jumping on the old frontal boundary in ths Gulf. Wind shear should decrease as the upper-lvl trof lifts out, but there isn't much down there now. As for a hurricane, if the system develops as those models suggest, then there probably wouldn't be enough time for it to reach hurricane strength.

I disagree wxman. They're not jumping on the old frontal boundary (at least not the ECMWF/CMC). They're keying on the wave south of Jamaica now coming under the influence of upper ridging. Models show the formation zone a bit further NW then where the blob is now, but then heading off toward Florida. I haven't looked at NOGAPS so I can't comment on that one.

Steve

ChaserUK · #16 Postby **ChaserUK** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 1:05 pm

LOL BEER980, not packing my bags just yet but it certainly merits keeping an eye on!!! That said, all my camera and computer equipement still packed and I have alerted my jorno friend just in case.

Possible Hurricane For West Central Florida??

Possible Hurricane For West Central Florida??

TS

Re: TS

Who is online