ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

Looking at the floater, seems a circulation is becoming more pronounced as it moves west or just south of west. I see it at 9N, 34W:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

MLC. Surface feature is about 500 miles east

[gatorcane]

Looking at the floater, seems a circulation is becoming more pronounced as it moves west or just south of west. I see it at 9N, 34W:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

MLC. Surface feature is about 500 miles east

Yep see it now, thanks. Perhaps this is the better floater to use:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it has 4 days to intensify, as long as dry air isn't a big deal.

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL982016  08/16/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    31    34    39    50    60    69    76    78    78    79    78
V (KT) LAND       25    27    31    34    39    50    60    69    76    78    78    79    78
V (KT) LGEM       25    27    29    31    34    39    46    54    62    66    67    66    64
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10    13    14    13    10     9     9     5     4     6    17    27    27
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     0    -1    -3    -4    -3    -5    -2    -1    -1    -2     0     1
SHEAR DIR         15     5     6    13    18    48    57    94   202   252   230   243   234
SST (C)         27.6  27.6  27.7  27.9  28.0  27.5  26.8  26.3  26.4  26.4  26.7  26.9  27.3
POT. INT. (KT)   133   133   134   136   137   129   121   117   119   120   123   124   128
ADJ. POT. INT.   138   137   135   136   135   124   115   111   113   115   116   115   115
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.6
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     6     6     5     6     5     5     5     6     7     8
700-500 MB RH     71    70    67    67    67    66    66    68    60    52    47    46    44
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    11    12    12    13    15    15    16    17    16    15    16    17
850 MB ENV VOR    83    88    95    93    93    86    60    48    43    42    14   -10    -3
200 MB DIV       -10    -3    15    40    56    63    91    48    33     9     4    20    46
700-850 TADV      -6    -9   -12   -10   -10    -8    -3    -1     2     4     9    17    21
LAND (KM)       1115  1264  1386  1480  1555  1655  1678  1720  1872  2083  2308  2286  2259
LAT (DEG N)      9.7  10.1  10.5  11.0  11.6  12.8  14.3  16.2  18.3  20.1  21.8  23.3  24.5
LONG(DEG W)     26.7  28.2  29.5  30.6  31.5  32.7  33.1  33.5  34.7  37.0  40.0  42.8  44.9
STM SPEED (KT)    15    14    13    11    10     8     9    11    13    16    15    14    10
HEAT CONTENT      11    12    21    26    26    24     9     2     1     1     3     8     6

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  490  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            8.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   3.   6.  11.  16.  20.  24.  26.  28.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   7.   4.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   4.   7.   9.   9.   8.   7.   6.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   1.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.   9.  14.  25.  35.  44.  51.  53.  53.  54.  53.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:    9.7    26.7

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST     08/16/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.66         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    11.9      28.8  to    2.9       0.65         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    19.2       0.0  to  155.1       0.12         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.5  to    2.9     999.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.5       2.8  to   -3.1       0.39         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    19.6     -23.1  to  181.5       0.21         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   111.1      28.4  to  139.1       0.75         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    16.6     100.0  to    0.0       0.83         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   120.2     960.3  to  -67.1       0.82         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST     08/16/2016  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    27    31    34    39    50    60    69    76    78    78    79    78
 18HR AGO           25    24    28    31    36    47    57    66    73    75    75    76    75
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    24    29    40    50    59    66    68    68    69    68
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    20    31    41    50    57    59    59    60    59
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[blp]

[Hurricaneman]

According to the rapidscat pass it looks like theres a low at 35W and a low at 30W. With this development will be slow to occur until it can consolidate into 1 low

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands and extends from 16N25W to 06N26W. A 1008 mb
low pressure has developed along the wave axis near 9N26W.
Clusters of moderate isolated strong convection are noted
within about 210 nm NW quadrant of low center. The wave is in a
moist environment with pretty good 700 mb signature.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the central tropical Atlantic. Latest
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium change of
tropical development through 48 hours, and a high change of
tropical formation through 5 days.

[Caneman12]

The wave is getting a better defined Circulation should continue development and be a tropical storm by wendesday

[Hammy]

Euro backing off development through 96 hours, seems much weaker than the previous run.

[Caneman12]

The reason why is because the Euro has it encountering dry air which is likely

[cycloneye]

70%-80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that the large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave centered about 500
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming
better organized. Conditions appear to be favorable for a tropical
depression to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves toward the west-northwest and then northwest toward the
open waters of the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[wxman57]

Wxman57, from TropicalTidibts site, we see WSW movement between hours 0 and 24 as shown below. Nonethless, I don't see any threat to land at the moment either given the weak subtropical ridge the models are showing:

Gatorcane,

By WSW I mean between 258.75 deg and 236.25 deg. Moving a little south of west is not technically a WSW movement.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

Location: 10.2°N 31.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic at about 390 nm
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis that extends from
14N30W to 06N30W. A 1008 mb low was left behind by the wave centered
near 09N28W. Clusters of moderate convection are noted from 07N-
13N between 27W-36W. These features are in a moist environment
and the wave has a noticeable 700 mb signature. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the
central tropical Atlantic. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this system a high chance of tropical development through the
next 48 hours.

[Gustywind]

First SSD appearence...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1145 UTC 11.0N 31.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic

[NDG]

Better consolidation of low pressure this morning, but I still see it moving almost due west, it is already south of last night's tropical models 0z track forecast.

[cycloneye]

This first image does not update.(12:45 UTC)



Below image updates every half an hour.

[znel52]

As long as this stays on it's westerly heading I think this is going to struggle to develop. It is trucking west at around 24mph and we have seen time and time again once these waves hit the 20+ mph threshold they have a tough time getting their act together. Maybe once this takes the forecasted turn NW it will slow it's forward speed some and it can congeal.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This system is currently getting squashed by the SAL.

[TheStormExpert]

This system is currently getting squashed by the SAL.

Yep, Uncle Sal is coming back strong!



Mid-Level Dry Air could be an issue as well.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This system is currently getting squashed by the SAL.

Yep, Uncle Sal is coming back strong!



Mid-Level Dry Air could be an issue as well.

Very strong. SAL is just not going away so far this season. Every time there is a break you see another surge of it quickly.