ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

It's no wonder the 00z Euro does little to anything with 98L, it sends it NW directly into the SAL and Mid-Leve dry air.

[znel52]

I think the main issue for development in the short term is forward speed and not as much SAL. SAL definitely isn't helping but models have been showing this will have a nice moist inflow coming from the itcz. It's just my opinion but I think the real inhibiting factor will be forward speed. Gonna have a tough time closing an LLC moving west at 24mph. If this was moving at 15mph we probably have a classifiable system right now.

[cycloneye]

No closed circulation yet.

[TheStormExpert]

Very strong. SAL is just not going away so far this season. Every time there is a break you see another surge of it quickly.

It's no wonder the 00z Euro does little to anything with 98L, it sends it NW directly into the SAL and Mid-Leve dry air.

I think the main issue for development in the short term is forward speed and not as much SAL. SAL definitely isn't helping but models have been showing this will have a nice moist inflow coming from the itcz. It's just my opinion but I think the real inhibiting factor will be forward speed. Gonna have a tough time closing an LLC moving west at 24mph. If this was moving at 15mph we probably have a classifiable system right now.

You're right about that! The foward speed of these waves and pre-Earl this season have been abnormally fast for whatever reason, does not seem normal.

[Kazmit]

It's no wonder the 00z Euro does little to anything with 98L, it sends it NW directly into the SAL and Mid-Leve dry air.

I think the main issue for development in the short term is forward speed and not as much SAL. SAL definitely isn't helping but models have been showing this will have a nice moist inflow coming from the itcz. It's just my opinion but I think the real inhibiting factor will be forward speed. Gonna have a tough time closing an LLC moving west at 24mph. If this was moving at 15mph we probably have a classifiable system right now.

You're right about that! The foward speed of these waves and pre-Earl this season have been abnormally fast for whatever reason, does not seem normal.

Weird. Maybe trade winds are stronger than usual, and are increasing the forward speeds of these storms?

[znel52]

I think the main issue for development in the short term is forward speed and not as much SAL. SAL definitely isn't helping but models have been showing this will have a nice moist inflow coming from the itcz. It's just my opinion but I think the real inhibiting factor will be forward speed. Gonna have a tough time closing an LLC moving west at 24mph. If this was moving at 15mph we probably have a classifiable system right now.

You're right about that! The foward speed of these waves and pre-Earl this season have been abnormally fast for whatever reason, does not seem normal.

Weird. Maybe trade winds are stronger than usual, and are increasing the forward speeds of these storms?

Yeah that is my understanding. Someone please feel free to correct me if I am off base but the reason is strong easterly trades. That has been the case the last few seasons. A few stroms have managed to pop during brief windows when the winds back off some but they have been few and far between.

[NDG]

No closed circulation yet.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/vyljrq.jpg

On this other image it does show a show a closed circulation but it is still elongated SW-NE. IMO.

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance. 98l is tracking more to the left of the guidance so far (see dotted black line):

[NDG]

You're right about that! The foward speed of these waves and pre-Earl this season have been abnormally fast for whatever reason, does not seem normal.

Weird. Maybe trade winds are stronger than usual, and are increasing the forward speeds of these storms?

Yeah that is my understanding. Someone please feel free to correct me if I am off base but the reason is strong easterly trades. That has been the case the last few seasons. A few stroms have managed to pop during brief windows when the winds back off some but they have been few and far between.

Easterly trade winds have actually been below average the past couple weeks across the tropical Atlantic, except central Caribbean. The models are persistent that the forward speed of 98L will slow down and take a more NW track indicative of a weakening subtropical high.

[znel52]

Weird. Maybe trade winds are stronger than usual, and are increasing the forward speeds of these storms?

Yeah that is my understanding. Someone please feel free to correct me if I am off base but the reason is strong easterly trades. That has been the case the last few seasons. A few stroms have managed to pop during brief windows when the winds back off some but they have been few and far between.

Easterly trade winds have actually been below average the past couple weeks across the tropical Atlantic, except central Caribbean. The models are persistent that the forward speed of 98L will slow down and take a more NW track indicative of a weakening subtropical high.

Interesting thanks for the info!

[wxman57]

Got a 12Z ASCAT pass over it. LLC evident a bit south of 11N around 31W. I'd estimate a 15Z position of 11.3N/31.8W. Doesn't qualify for a TD yet, as the circulation is a bit too poorly-organized (though it's better than Colin's was...).

[Nimbus]

Classic sharp wave, almost looks like a shark fin, also it looks like there isn't any weakness in the subtropical ridging yet?

[Alyono]

Need a bit more convection

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS really bombs this out with what looks like a run at a MAJOR hurricane as it recurves in the Central Atlantic.

[LarryWx]

Got a 12Z ASCAT pass over it. LLC evident a bit south of 11N around 31W. I'd estimate a 15Z position of 11.3N/31.8W. Doesn't qualify for a TD yet, as the circulation is a bit too poorly-organized (though it's better than Colin's was...).
]

Do you still think like you thought early yesterday that its most likely outcome is no development anytime soon thus allowing it to move westward into the Caribbean?

[Blown Away]

All aboard the recurve train per the 12z GFS... Big giant hole in Atlantic to move these lows far away from land, maybe Bermuda... Looks like some healthy systems to watch with the fish...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=220

[Hurricaneman]

All aboard the recurve train per the 12z GFS... Big giant hole in Atlantic to move these lows far away from land, maybe Bermuda... Looks like some healthy systems to watch with the fish...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=220

But one thing is I do believe this is a recurve but the one behind it is no guarantee due to being in the long range but I do agree this may be a picturesque major bothering nobody but the fish

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

This looks well on its way, but the northern end is dealing with dry air

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

If the models are right and this system tracks thru fairly good conditions,it may get a good chunck of ACE units that the North Atlantic needs as is below normal to this date. (10.915 units so far)

[Alyono]

should have turned NW 24 hours ago