WPAC: KOMPASU - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The next invest has been declared on another area of consolidating vorticity on the monsoon trough. 12Z positioning is at 19.0*N, 148.0*E. I think development prospects aren't horrible, but it probably won't get too strong since it will likely be flung around the back side of the emerging monsoon gyre beginning in about 24 hour's time and then into the tropical cyclone graveyard of the mid-latitude western pacific.

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 160817 0000 19.3N 149.3E WPAC 15 1000

[doraboy]

Predicted by TCFS(TC Formation Simulator) V1.07
Initial time:2016/08/17 09UTC

PS:The forecast is based on my own "model" (a small C++ program I wrote)

[talkon]

This is also a JMA TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 171200
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 18N 150E ENE SLOWLY.

[kala]

I broke out my Interpolated Statistical Model to do this run finally. I wanted to see how it compared to doraboy's model

It's a little thing I wrote in Python a bit over a year ago.

20160817 18z

Code: Select all

96W
[+000hr]        +28.2   +153.7  030.0 kt        996.0 hPa
[+006hr]        +28.8   +152.1  041.7 kt        995.3 hPa
[+012hr]        +29.3   +151.3  047.5 kt        994.7 hPa
[+018hr]        +29.9   +150.8  050.0 kt        994.8 hPa
[+024hr]        +30.4   +150.9  049.5 kt        996.4 hPa
[+030hr]        +30.7   +152.3  049.4 kt        998.4 hPa
[+036hr]        +31.3   +154.3  052.8 kt        995.7 hPa
[+042hr]        +32.3   +154.7  050.3 kt        998.2 hPa
[+048hr]        +33.0   +155.2  048.6 kt        999.6 hPa
[+054hr]        +34.4   +155.6  038.6 kt        1000.1 hPa
[+060hr]        +36.0   +154.7  048.6 kt        996.1 hPa
[+066hr]        +37.2   +155.6  008.6 kt        998.1 hPa
[+072hr]        +38.6   +158.2  004.8 kt        999.2 hPa
[+078hr]        +39.4   +160.4  000.0 kt        999.8 hPa
[+084hr]        +40.2   +161.6  ---.- kt        1001.2 hPa
[+090hr]        +41.2   +163.9  ---.- kt        1004.7 hPa
[+096hr]        +41.5   +166.5  ---.- kt        1006.0 hPa
[+102hr]        +41.7   +166.8  ---.- kt        1005.3 hPa
[+108hr]        +41.9   +167.2  ---.- kt        1004.7 hPa
[+114hr]        +42.4   +172.8  ---.- kt        1003.8 hPa
[+120hr]        +42.2   +176.1  ---.- kt        1003.5 hPa
[+126hr]        +43.9   +178.6  ---.- kt        1006.2 hPa
storm left grid

99W
[+000hr]        +15.0   +141.0  025.0 kt        996.0 hPa
[+006hr]        +15.0   +141.5  025.6 kt        995.3 hPa
[+012hr]        +15.2   +141.7  026.1 kt        994.7 hPa
[+018hr]        +15.5   +141.7  026.7 kt        994.0 hPa
[+024hr]        +16.0   +141.6  027.2 kt        993.3 hPa
[+030hr]        +16.6   +141.0  031.8 kt        990.7 hPa
[+036hr]        +17.2   +140.4  036.4 kt        988.0 hPa
[+042hr]        +17.9   +139.6  049.2 kt        986.6 hPa
[+048hr]        +18.5   +138.6  051.4 kt        984.9 hPa
[+054hr]        +19.4   +137.6  054.4 kt        983.9 hPa
[+060hr]        +19.8   +136.5  057.0 kt        981.5 hPa
[+066hr]        +20.3   +135.6  060.3 kt        979.8 hPa
[+072hr]        +20.7   +134.8  061.6 kt        978.5 hPa
[+078hr]        +21.3   +134.5  063.2 kt        976.7 hPa
[+084hr]        +22.0   +133.9  074.9 kt        975.4 hPa
[+090hr]        +22.5   +133.3  077.0 kt        972.8 hPa
[+096hr]        +23.0   +132.8  079.2 kt        970.2 hPa
[+102hr]        +23.3   +132.5  076.1 kt        972.6 hPa
[+108hr]        +23.5   +132.3  072.9 kt        975.0 hPa
[+114hr]        +23.8   +132.1  069.8 kt        977.3 hPa
[+120hr]        +24.0   +131.8  066.7 kt        979.7 hPa
[+126hr]        +24.4   +131.8  070.8 kt        979.1 hPa
[+132hr]        +24.7   +131.8  074.9 kt        978.4 hPa
[+138hr]        +25.1   +131.7  079.0 kt        977.8 hPa
[+144hr]        +25.7   +131.5  077.7 kt        977.2 hPa
[+150hr]        +26.4   +131.4  076.5 kt        976.7 hPa
[+156hr]        +26.6   +131.1  075.8 kt        976.8 hPa
[+162hr]        +26.9   +130.9  075.1 kt        976.9 hPa
[+168hr]        +27.2   +130.5  074.9 kt        976.5 hPa
[+174hr]        +27.6   +130.8  079.9 kt        976.0 hPa
[+180hr]        +28.1   +131.1  084.9 kt        975.5 hPa
forecast end

98W
[+000hr]        +19.0   +151.0  025.0 kt        998.0 hPa
[+006hr]        +19.2   +151.5  027.5 kt        994.3 hPa
[+012hr]        +19.5   +151.7  030.0 kt        990.5 hPa
[+018hr]        +20.0   +151.6  032.5 kt        986.8 hPa
[+024hr]        +21.1   +151.9  037.5 kt        981.8 hPa
[+030hr]        +21.8   +151.6  039.2 kt        979.4 hPa
[+036hr]        +22.6   +151.1  040.8 kt        977.1 hPa
[+042hr]        +23.1   +150.4  043.0 kt        974.2 hPa
[+048hr]        +23.3   +150.1  044.2 kt        971.7 hPa
[+054hr]        +23.5   +149.9  045.5 kt        969.2 hPa
[+060hr]        +24.2   +149.1  047.6 kt        967.9 hPa
[+066hr]        +24.6   +148.2  055.1 kt        968.2 hPa
[+072hr]        +25.1   +147.7  056.0 kt        967.2 hPa
[+078hr]        +25.6   +147.2  055.1 kt        969.0 hPa
[+084hr]        +26.2   +146.8  054.3 kt        970.9 hPa
[+090hr]        +26.6   +146.5  059.6 kt        969.9 hPa
[+096hr]        +27.0   +146.2  064.9 kt        968.9 hPa
[+102hr]        +27.4   +145.9  070.2 kt        967.9 hPa
[+108hr]        +27.7   +146.0  068.5 kt        969.0 hPa
[+114hr]        +28.0   +145.5  069.6 kt        966.6 hPa
[+120hr]        +28.5   +145.4  063.8 kt        965.4 hPa
[+126hr]        +29.0   +145.3  058.0 kt        964.2 hPa
[+132hr]        +29.5   +145.5  059.0 kt        965.2 hPa
[+138hr]        +30.1   +145.7  060.0 kt        966.2 hPa
[+144hr]        +31.0   +146.1  056.0 kt        967.0 hPa
[+150hr]        +31.5   +146.9  051.0 kt        970.4 hPa
[+156hr]        +31.8   +147.9  052.6 kt        967.0 hPa
[+162hr]        +32.4   +148.3  055.1 kt        967.1 hPa
[+168hr]        +32.6   +150.0  052.6 kt        969.6 hPa
[+174hr]        +33.6   +151.3  048.9 kt        970.9 hPa
[+180hr]        +34.2   +151.9  041.7 kt        971.9 hPa
forecast end


I somehow lost the text data for 95W's track.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
148.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A CONSOLDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 180429Z SSMI 85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 172328Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER, AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS LOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

EURO makes this a brief TS before accelerating out to sea...

GFS brings it down to 991 mb right through Tokyo...

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT hit from this morning shows a typical system emerging from the gyre. 98W is beginning to close off, but the winds remain very weak on the west side due to the weaker pressure gradient towards the center of the gyre.

[1900hurricane]

98W might be getting closer to classification. Microwave shows a clearly defined center on the western edge of the convection, near 24.5*N, 154*E at the pass time.

[1900hurricane]

A TCFA is now up for 98W.

WTPN21 PGTW 182300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
215 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.2N 154.5E TO 33.0N 148.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.0N 154.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY
970 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182009Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER
SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE
BULK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
OFFSETTING THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE AND MODELS SHOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DO TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192300Z.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

Another gale warning issued.

TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 19 August 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 19 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N29°30' (29.5°)
E151°30' (151.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N33°25' (33.4°)
E147°25' (147.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°50' (36.8°)
E143°25' (143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

13W THIRTEEN 160819 1800 31.1N 149.5E WPAC 35 996

7th tropical storm in August!

[1900hurricane]

JMA follows suit, naming it Kompasu.

TS 1611 (Kompasu)
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 20 August 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 20 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N32°40' (32.7°)
E147°20' (147.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 390 km (210 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°50' (36.8°)
E143°05' (143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N40°35' (40.6°)
E142°05' (142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N48°05' (48.1°)
E147°05' (147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

And here's their WPac view, just for fun.

[euro6208]

13W THIRTEEN 160820 0000 32.7N 147.6E WPAC 40 993

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is pretty much dead on with intensity when compared to ASCAT. I wonder if they saw the pass prior to their 00Z intensity estimate.

[euro6208]

13W KOMPASU 160820 1800 37.9N 142.4E WPAC 30 998

[euro6208]

Downgraded to a TD...

13W KOMPASU 160821 0600 40.9N 143.0E WPAC 30 1000

[NotoSans]

JMA now declares it as an extratropical system.
Kompasu is the second storm to make landfall over Hokkaido this year.



LOW
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 21 August 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N45°00' (45.0°)
E145°00' (145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa