Tropical wave wsw of CV Islands (Pouch 21L) Invest 99L is up

[tolakram]

Looking at 138 hours on the 12Z euro it appears to come off the coast as a tropical storm.

Is it not the 3rd system that its been showing?

It may be, I'm really not sure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is strengthening this wave at hour 168.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looking at 138 hours on the 12Z euro it appears to come off the coast as a tropical storm.

Is it not the 3rd system that its been showing?

It may be, I'm really not sure.

It is a third wave you were pointing out but it develops it too.

[LarryWx]

Is it not the 3rd system that its been showing?

It may be, I'm really not sure.

It is a third wave you were pointing out but it develops it too.

Yeah, the 12Z Euro has a TC just of of Africa on day 6 from energy that is now in Chad as opposed to Mali.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro keeps this wave relevant east of the island's but very weak. Should still be monitored because it could pull an Earl if it manages to make it to the carribean.

[Siker]

Definitely much weaker and much slower with development. Final frame is a small, weak (but intensifying) tropical storm:

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro now starts to strengthen this into a storm as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[Siker]

It's also about to run into a massive wall of shear in the Eastern Caribbean at that point, FWIW. The 00z run showed virtually no shear for the same period.

[gatorcane]

Looking at Africa, you can see the Mali system and the big one over Chad. No wonder the ECMWF is all over the wave over Chad. Look at that convection!

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS shows nothing developing from this wave at 18z.

[cycloneye]

Latest image shows plenty of activity with pouch 21L being the smaller one in front of the larger one that will be another pouch soon.

[stormwise]

A few E/Wave threads going,guess that's just how things are done here. You would think the modeled storms thread would
be the place to look.

[Siker]

Models are currently in good agreement that the energy from this wave will remain too elongated, partially as a result of the influence of the two larger systems to its west and east.

[Siker]

In the huge FWIW department, 12z CMC and 00z UKMET develop this:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS back to showing some weak development with track further south with position east of the Northern Lesser Antilles in a week. With the UKMET on board and CMC, bears watching for sure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Headed for Florida and G.O.M.

Edit: actually stalls off east coast of Florida.

[Siker]

12Z GFS back to showing some weak development with track further south with position east of the Northern Lesser Antilles in a week. With the UKMET on board and CMC, bears watching for sure.

You're looking at Pouch 22L (the third wave). This is the middle wave (the low-rider that the Euro was originally developing).

[gatorcane]

whoops, thanks, I will put this comment in the other thread.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I don't like these latest model runs at all. The systems are trending ever closer to various landmasses. I sure hope this trend reverses itself later on.

[chaser1]

A few E/Wave threads going,guess that's just how things are done here. You would think the modeled storms thread would
be the place to look.

I have to agree. Following threads for each actual storm discussion and other for models is fine. Otherwise I'd suggest to those moderating, that we use the format in place for anything - not "invests" or storms. The topic under "Tropics" allows for any and all discussion under the Global Models thread for any kind of discussion regarding what models are hinting at. I mean, whats next... people starting threads for "pre-pouches" LOL??? It's one thing where threads will be started based on active waves being followed already in the Caribbean, GOM, or MDR. At least here though, discussion can be had regarding their immediate environment, effects on lands, and relative model discussion. Often with pouches however, we're just referring to active waves in other basins or over Africa. Let this discussion remain perhaps under the "Seasonal Indicators..... 16+ days out" thread then. Anyway, not bitching here.... just my 2 cents thats all.