ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

Caveat here is 1. This is the GFS and 2. This is now the GFS past 192 and the upper air skill has been pretty bad this year.

No argument here just pointing out what it did this run.

Right, but when you say probably OTS either you are thinking it is finding a weakness in the ridge or it's a flippant remark that has no real value. I don't trust the GFS out this far but it appears to be showing a decent ridge filling in that, depending on timing, may bring this close to the US.

[Siker]

Final frame before truncation, 930mb:

[tarheelprogrammer]

Caveat here is 1. This is the GFS and 2. This is now the GFS past 192 and the upper air skill has been pretty bad this year.

No argument here just pointing out what it did this run.

Right, but when you say probably OTS either you are thinking it is finding a weakness in the ridge or it's a flippant remark that has no real value. I don't trust the GFS out this far but it appears to be showing a decent ridge filling in that, depending on timing, may bring this close to the US.

I thought it found a weakness. Maybe I was wrong and will be wrong. I just hope I am not wrong. It sure did look like it in the earlier part of the run but ridging has built back in in time to stop that. At least in this run.

[Siker]

It is going out to sea after 240 hours; interesting that it was moving straight NW all the way up until that point.

[tolakram]

For comparison, here is the Euro 500mb anon and the GFS 500mb anon for 240 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that a Fujiwara Effect in the GFS run?

[SFLcane]

Come inside the magic trap door....

[gatorcane]

Wow GFS is really bombing this out, steering patterns in long-range are difficult to predict.

[p1nheadlarry]

Is that a Fujiwara Effect in the GFS run?

It appears so. It's a function of an inverse square law, correct? I've seen the formula before in a pdf.

[Bocadude85]

Interesting Fujiwara effect on the 18zGFS. The islands and the SE USA will really need to watch this system in the next 10 days. I would rather be in the bullseye 10 days out then not. We all know the models will change a 1000 times before they nail down the final outcome. All I will say is that the Bermuda high has been very strong this year thus far.

[Hurricaneman]

Final frame before truncation, 930mb:

The fact that the 18zGFS at 240 shows a cat 4 hurricane can you say more this does need to be watched because what if this ends up 750miles farther west at a similar or higher intensity. I want to see what the models say for the next 3 or 4 days before going all in

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Dean4Storms]

Well most of the model tracks thus far take 99L through the Hebert Box so this bears watching for the Bahamas and Florida for sure!!!

[AutoPenalti]

oh my god. GFS does stand as Getting Florida Scared.

[Frank2]

Yeah, but at 10 days out, so much can change with each run...

[TheAustinMan]

Well most of the model tracks thus far take 99L through the Hebert Box so this bears watching for the Bahamas and Florida for sure!!!

I think now would be a good time to remind readers what the Hebert Box(es) are. The idea, as observed by former NHC forecaster Paul Hebert, was that hurricanes that struck South Florida often passed through two geographic regions (Western Caribbean and the area around the Virgin Islands). Note the phrasing: when talking about the Hebert Boxes:

• Most hurricanes that have impacted South Florida have passed through the Hebert Boxes...
• ... but hurricanes that pass through the Hebert Boxes do not "usually" hit South Florida

Just a caution when tuning into forecasts pertaining to the future track of this system. Remember to refer to the National Hurricane Center or your local official weather service for information!

[NDG]

One thing that I have noticed is that the models all month long, especially the Euro, has been wanting to breakdown the east coast ridge in its medium to long range forecast, which has not panned out, so any storms that form west of 50W on a south latitude could indeed bring a threat to the extreme SE US and or gulf coast by missing the central Atlantic weakness, if the current pattern stay in place.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Dean4Storms]

Well most of the model tracks thus far take 99L through the Hebert Box so this bears watching for the Bahamas and Florida for sure!!!

I think now would be a good time to remind readers what the Hebert Box(es) are. The idea, as observed by former NHC forecaster Paul Hebert, was that hurricanes that struck South Florida often passed through two geographic regions (Western Caribbean and the area around the Virgin Islands). Note the phrasing: when talking about the Hebert Boxes:

• Most hurricanes that have impacted South Florida have passed through the Hebert Boxes...
• ... but hurricanes that pass through the Hebert Boxes do not "usually" hit South Florida

Just a caution when tuning into forecasts pertaining to the future track of this system. Remember to refer to the National Hurricane Center or your local official weather service for information!

Yea that was probably a good idea, a good reminder even though probably most here know what it is.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing that I have noticed is that the models all month long, especially the Euro, has been wanting to breakdown the east coast ridge in its medium to long range forecast, which has not panned out, so any storms that form west of 50W on a south latitude could indeed bring a threat to the extreme SE US and or gulf coast by missing the central Atlantic weakness, if the current pattern stay in place.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Noticed that as well and if anything the ridging has been fairly strong all summer. I'll believe it when I see it.

[SFLcane]

ensembles already showing a recurve into weakness..

[Blown Away]

Kind of a weird run for 18z GFS... 99L moved NW/NNW from @12N to @32N over a 5-6 day period... Strange 99L didn't find a building ridge during a 6 day period... Wow, been a while since we've seen a Cat4 in an Atlantic model run...