ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Bocadude85]

ensembles already showing a recurve into weakness..

I'm not sure this will recurve before the islands. The Euro shows this wave making it to the western Caribbean, granted the euro doesn't develop this wave. However if you take the middle road between the GFS & Euro you would come up with a track through the islands heading towards the Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic area.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd like to remind everyone that global models have a tendency to re-curve things too quickly. Now, I don't think it won't not recurve at all, but a track that passes near or over the Eastern United States is a real possibility at this point.

[gatorcane]

It's also entirely possible the GFS shows a weaker system in subsequent runs but not as weak as the Euro and that would allow it to recurve more west in the Caribbean than the recurve it is showing now.

[PTrackerLA]

Can't post the image but the 12z Euro ensembles has at least 10 members with a significant cyclone in the GOM or closing in on the SE by day 14. There's also roughly the same amount of members with a storm recurving as well. Take it for what it's worth but pretty sure this is 99L.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'd like to remind everyone that you are speculating over a 7-10 day forecast

Recall how wide the NHC forecast track cone is at five days and now extrapolate that to a seven day forecast. Right now the biggest questions are: 1) will the TC develop? 2) will it affect the Lesser Antilles? Folks in the U.S. have plenty of time to watch the models to flip flop around. Nothing wrong with looking 7-10 days out, but I get the feeling some folks are not realizing the uncertainty involved with such a forecast.

[Gustywind]

I'd like to remind everyone that you are speculating over a 7-10 day forecast

Recall how wide the NHC forecast track cone is at five days and now extrapolate that to a seven day forecast. Right now the biggest questions are: 1) will the TC develop? 2) will it affect the Lesser Antilles? Folks in the U.S. have plenty of time to watch the models to flip flop around. Nothing wrong with looking 7-10 days out, but I get the feeling some folks are not realizing the uncertainty involved with such a forecast.

Excellent post Let's wait and see if 99L could become something more robust Plenty of time ahead to monitor is an euphemisma

[TheStormExpert]

We saw how horribly the models failed about this time last season with Erika striking either Florida or the SE U.S. as a hurricane, let's wait and see if this can become something more than a weak/moderate TS.

[AxaltaRacing24]

We saw how horribly the models failed about this time last season with Erika striking either Florida or the SE U.S. as a hurricane, let's wait and see if this can become something more than a weak/moderate TS.

I feel that they will not mess up as bad this time. Last time Erika had STRONG shear and the LLC was replaced to the south which forced it right over the Dominican Republic to face its death.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mpalmertwc/status/766434207241498625

[Hurricaneman]

0zGFS seems to hit the northern lesser Antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

Trended further east closer to the 18z GEFS Ensembles.

[Alyono]

UKMET seems to have dropped this

[Bocadude85]

0zGFS seems to hit the northern lesser Antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yea 0Z GFS has this system riding up the island chain from Martinque northward

[Hammy]

We saw how horribly the models failed about this time last season with Erika striking either Florida or the SE U.S. as a hurricane, let's wait and see if this can become something more than a weak/moderate TS.

I feel that they will not mess up as bad this time. Last time Erika had STRONG shear and the LLC was replaced to the south which forced it right over the Dominican Republic to face its death.

I think the other problem with Erika was it never consolidated into a single center, so the models were all over the place depending on which vortex or average went into the models--if this does form and it's a singular circulation the models will likely handle it better.

[TheStormExpert]

Ridge trying to build overhead @ 192hrs?

[Bocadude85]

Bermuda may be in trouble on this run.

[PTrackerLA]

Down to 920mb at 228hrs on the 00z GFS .

[Hurricaneman]

the main thing here is it looks like Fiona leaves a weakness for this, but what if somehow this bypasses that weakness or only gets partial capture and the ridge builds in pushing it more WNW instead of NNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Alyono]

HOLY BS FLAG on the 0Z CMC

Has this Fijiwaring around Fiona in the western Atlantic

[Hurricaneman]

on the GFS at 234 it looks like the 500mb ridge tries to build in as the weakness closes up

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service