ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Siker]

It's interesting that the 00z Euro ensembles were far less bullish than they were previously (the 12z yesterday was extremely bullish despite the operational run not developing anything).

[NDG]

06z HWRF is very bullish, developing 99L into a Hurricane by Sunday night. I don't see that happening that quick.

[TheStormExpert]

So besides the GFS, CMC, and HWRF what other reliable models show development of 99L. Euro dropped it after a run or two days ago, and the UKMET dropped it on it's 00z run.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS scenario is reallly worrisome. Keeps trending west. My parents and brother are leaving to Wilmington, NC for a 3 week vacation tomorrow.

[tolakram]

The GFS has been more reliable in this area in the past but it's difficult to believe it when other models do nothing.

ALso, can someone post confirmation that the UK dropped it. Not seeing this so far, but my UKMET sources are pretty weak.

[Siker]

The GFS has been more reliable in this area in the past but it's difficult to believe it when other models do nothing.

ALso, can someone post confirmation that the UK dropped it. Not seeing this so far, but my UKMET sources are pretty weak.

I can't help you because none of my UKMET graphics are working properly, but I can say that the text output doesn't seem to pick up on systems developing beyond a certain point in the run (the 00z yesterday developed it but had no text associated with it).

[Fego]

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/


UKMET link is stuck in the 12z run. Hoping somebody has another option.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What is the reason the ECMWF does not develop this system?

[Florida1118]

What is the reason the ECMWF does not develop this system?

I second this question. From what I looked at, the Euro just never organizes the wave at all, and then decides to plow over Hispanola. Why does the GFS see this as a organizing tropical wave, and the Euro sees it at as a weakening wave?

[WeatherEmperor]

So besides the GFS, CMC, and HWRF what other reliable models show development of 99L. Euro dropped it after a run or two days ago, and the UKMET dropped it on it's 00z run.

Not the most reliable model but the 00z Navgem also shows development

[centuryv58]

What is the reason the ECMWF does not develop this system?

I second this question. From what I looked at, the Euro just never organizes the wave at all, and then decides to plow over Hispanola. Why does the GFS see this as a organizing tropical wave, and the Euro sees it at as a weakening wave?

I believe it has been stated by at least one ProMet here the Euro update is not doing as well this year as in previous years, but he can speak for himself on this matter.

[Kazmit]

12z guidances. Seems to be trending out of the Caribbean, where it could threaten the Bahamas, and the East Coast.

Intensity guidances

[Blown Away]

06z GFS 252 Hours.

06z GFS 174 Hours.

06z GFS 144 Hours.

Lots of land impacts per 06z GFS... Much farther west than yesterday once the islands are cleared, but still barely manages to recurve away from CONUS.

[MGC]

Have to watch this one....models in the past have recurved too many too soon.....MGC

[gatorcane]

It is recurving in the Bahamas around 200+ hours. The GFS is not that accurate that far out as the GFS track has a large range of errors that far out. A bit unnerving to see such a powerful system that close to us in Florida but at least the GFS only has the CMC showing significant development of this system at this time.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is just my take but this is what I would watch for in the upcoming model runs.

Watch the GFS runs to see how far west this gets before it windshield wipes back the other direction. I would guess we will see a few more runs with west shifts. When those shifts stop and it starts to swing back to the east is when we may have a better idea on the trough or ridge that may be in place.

SFT

[stormlover2013]

Models will get better once we have a storm, let's see how the ridge plays out plenty of times before we see models do this and boom we have change

[Fego]

Good morning. We have three top models as the NHC have stated before. Right now, just one, GFS, is developing a hurricane from 99L. ECMWF and UKMET don't, but this three reliable models somewhat agree in terms of a system approaching the Lesser Antilles. Hard to jump in any boat with this fact.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z GEFS members are quite a bit worrisome from a potential CONUS impact standpoint with impacts from a possible H varying between late 8/29 and 9/3 depending on member. I counted 1 that hit LA, 1 that hit the FL panhandle, 3 that ride up much of the SE coast from FL, one that scrapes the NC OB/NE US, and about 5 others that primarily affect the NE US either via a direct hit or a scrape. With there being 20 members, this implies 55% of the members affect the CONUS. Nearly all of the 20 members develop a TC out of 99L though there may be as many as about 3 that only make it to an offshore TS.

[Dean4Storms]

A good bit concerning so early on with models and many ensembles showing such a far western track.