ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Siker]

Nothing on the 12z UKMET.

Show me please. I have yet to find confirmation that the ukie completely dropped this.

I'm surprised the GFS still develops this, and especially skeptical of the GFS cranking up intensity in the graveyard and then running it over hispaniola. I think all we can take away from this run is delayed development, if any, and possibly a stronger ridge.

It's not on the text output:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropic ... wtnt80.txt

As I said earlier, the text output doesn't seem to pick up development past a certain point in time on the run, but considering it had it within the text output yesterday at 12z the reasonable assumption seems to be that it is not developing it.

[stormlover2013]

yeah big big shift west

[tarheelprogrammer]

That's a very large shift south and west of the 00z model. I think the thing to take from this is that there is a very good possibility that there will be a tropical cyclone in vicinity of the SE Bahamas. The only question is how strong, and where does it go from there.

I agree just hope Hispaniola can do its job and kill it before it gets there. Any further south and the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean is a real possibility.

and have this kill 10,000 as it moves slowly over Hispañiola, causing catastrophic mudslides?

Well I do not want death. Hopefully it stays weak and trends more toward the ECMWF. No matter the situation but I do not want a Cat 5 making US landfall either. If I have to choose.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has this sitting over Hispaniola for 48 hours yet still keeps it sub 1000mb. Sketchy.

[gatorcane]

222 hours and ridge building over the Carolinas with the system moving WNW

[PTrackerLA]

GFS has this sitting over Hispaniola for 48 hours yet still keeps it sub 1000mb. Sketchy.

Actually 24-30 hours and it hugs the northern coast

[Kingarabian]

222 hours and ridge building over the Carolinas with the system moving WNW

Yeah looks like it'll make it to the GOM.

[tarheelprogrammer]

222 hours and ridge building over the Carolinas with the system moving WNW

Uh oh heading toward the Gulf of Mexico.

[Bocadude85]

Its going to be hard to miss Florida on this run, looks GOM bound.

[TheStormExpert]

GoM bound! Caving to the Euro?

[PTrackerLA]

GoM bound! Caving to the Euro?

Um crap. Look at the ridge building over Carolinas.

[gatorcane]

So we are talking about a 240 hour frame where we would expect large errors here but here it is moving WNW:

[JPmia]

Georges 2.0? Isn't 1998 an analog year?

[TheStormExpert]

Cutoff low diving SE out of the plains ready to scoop it up eventually, though too late.

[Kingarabian]

Interaction with Hispaniola will be very key.

[gatorcane]

Cutoff low diving SE out of the plains ready to scoop it up eventually, though too late.

Yep that cutoff low would just erode the ridge over the Carolinas and allow a turn to the NW you would think:

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS run looks similar to the SWmost members of the 6Z GEFS that either went into the GOM (2) or skirted the SE US from FL up (3 members).

[PTrackerLA]

976mb

[gatorcane]

Oh boy...thankfully 264 hours out

[Bocadude85]

Direct hit on the Florida Keys this run.