ATL: HERMINE - Models

[wflamholtz]

I surprised no one is mentioning the HWRF...it takes a hurricane into the central Lesser Antilles

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS Ensembles trending west and clustering together a little more in the Northern Bahamas in 10 days.

That's a very strong cluster for being 10 days out.

[p1nheadlarry]

12z GEFS Ensembles trending west and clustering together a little more in the Northern Bahamas in 10 days.

That's a very strong cluster for being 10 days out.

At 288 hours it splits, gulf solution, Carolina/Georgia solution, OTS solution.

[SFLcane]

[p1nheadlarry]

I surprised no one is mentioning the HWRF...it takes a hurricane into the central Lesser Antilles

It's been pretty good with intensity lately, but like other models, performs better once we have a surface low to initialize.

[TheStormExpert]

I surprised no one is mentioning the HWRF...it takes a hurricane into the central Lesser Antilles

It's been pretty good with intensity lately, but like other models, performs better once we have a surface low to initialize.

The HWRF is not good with intensity especially this early on. Always way too bullish overall.

[wflamholtz]

I surprised no one is mentioning the HWRF...it takes a hurricane into the central Lesser Antilles

It's been pretty good with intensity lately, but like other models, performs better once we have a surface low to initialize.

The HWRF is not good with intensity especially this early on. Always way too bullish overall.

I have to disagree with that, circa Joaquin

[p1nheadlarry]

I surprised no one is mentioning the HWRF...it takes a hurricane into the central Lesser Antilles

It's been pretty good with intensity lately, but like other models, performs better once we have a surface low to initialize.

The HWRF is not good with intensity especially this early on. Always way too bullish overall.

Starts way too early. It did well with Earl, but developed it too soon. But once the invest [finally] formed a surface low it was pretty much hammer on nail. Right now I think everyone aside from the ECMWF/UKMET is too bullish. 99L has lots of work to do before it enters more favorable conditions. They're not so bad now and the large circulation is still trying to get its act together. Some dry air ahead, tutt; maybe if it's together in the west Atlantic it will organize. Could poof over the higher terrain before it does...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro does essentially nothing with it, just as was the case with the 0Z Euro.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12Z Euro does essentially nothing with it, just as was the case with the 0Z Euro.

FWIW, the 12Z Navgem (Nogaps) also doesn't do much.

In fact, it looks like the Navgem fizzles out 99L and takes some of it's moisture and merges it with the wave coming off Africa in a couple of days to make a TD/TS out of it by 180hrs.

I think somebody also posted before that the 12Z Ukmet also does nothing with 99L. Very interesting...

[stormlover2013]

Just look for the upper level pattern guys, who's cares if the models don't really show anything, nothing has developed yet

[Frank2]

Just a guess, but the 12Z GFS is hinting at 99L doing another zonal towards Central America...

[SeGaBob]

I think the Euro will be wrong on this. NHC obviously sees potential with this system.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just a guess, but the 12Z GFS is hinting at 99L doing another zonal towards Central America...

I wouldn't put much faith in that. History shows that GFS is horrible at predicting direction with storms this far out that haven't developed yet.

[perk]

The 12z GFS has a 981mb hurricane land falling at Tallahassee at hour 288.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF has a 111 mph Cat 3 just east of islands in 5 days moving WNW/NW...

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro still with nothing, you can track the vorticity though all the way into the SE GoM in 10 days where it is mostly strung out NE-SW. Something has got to give here.

[stormlover2013]

yeah I tracked the vorticity that goes all the way into gulf, nothing has to give, what we are seeing is what will the upper level be like, once something develops then we can get a better handle

[Bocadude85]

12Z JMA develops this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016081912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=379

[Bocadude85]

06z HWRF has a 111 mph Cat 3 just east of islands in 5 days moving WNW/NW...

12Z HWRF plows a hurricane right into St.Vincent