ATL: HERMINE - Models

[USTropics]

18z spaghetti model plots:

[Siker]

From both runs you can see that it wants to try and develop as it approaches the islands (vorticity begins consolidating) but then it just... doesn't.

[USTropics]

The most immediate concern will be the Leewards and Puerto Rico. GFS ensembles are really focusing in on PR now:

[gatorcane]

FIM-9:

[p1nheadlarry]

Daytona, Jax, Brunswick, Savannah, and Charleston all get raked and take it on the chin.

South-facing areas near MYR and ILM would see some beach erosion minimum if that solution pans out, the winds would be coming out of the south

[blp]

Don't know if this was posted the 12z JMA is on board similar to the GFS.

[pgoss11]

Looks like Ga. to me.

I'm in Charleston SC so being in the crosshairs 10 days out is the best place to be. Literally 0 chance of this happening.

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks like Ga. to me.

I'm in Charleston SC so being in the crosshairs 10 days out is the best place to be. Literally 0 chance of this happening.

We've got a long ways to go. Hell Joaquin was poised to hit near us with much less time to prepare, though different pattern set up and other circumstances.

[gatorcane]

So in a nutshell, models that develop:

GFS
HWRF
CMC
JMA

Models that don't develop:

ECMWF
UKMET
NAVGEM

What camp would you put your money on?

[pgoss11]

So in a nutshell, models that develop:

GFS
HWRF
CMC
JMA

Models that don't develop:

ECMWF
UKMET
NAVGEM

What camp would you put your money on?

It's hard to bet against the Euro. Every time I do..I'm wrong.

[SouthFLTropics]

So in a nutshell, models that develop:

GFS
HWRF
CMC
JMA

Models that don't develop:

ECMWF
UKMET
NAVGEM

What camp would you put your money on?

This is a tough call...it's hard to go against the Euro. With that said we've seen it drop things in the mid to long range only to bring them back. The fact CMC develops isn't surprising, it develops everything. The question comes down to GFS vs. Euro...has the GFS gotten that much better this year? Has the Euro gotten worse? Stay tuned...

[p1nheadlarry]

So in a nutshell, models that develop:

GFS
HWRF
CMC
JMA

Models that don't develop:

ECMWF
UKMET
NAVGEM

What camp would you put your money on?

It's too close to call. 99L could very well get its act together in the next 72 hours where it moves into a better environment, the pocket of moist air Fiona has left behind. Right now I'd have to lean Euro until I see something from the structure of the system.

[blp]

FWIW the lower quality NOAA model is onboard as well.

I have been burned a few times in this scenario thinking the Euro is wrong and get proven wrong. I can even remember when it was Euro against everybody only to see Euro win. So I am holding back. Maybe as Alyonso said that the new resolution is causing issues in the Euro this year. We will see.

[Bocadude85]

So in a nutshell, models that develop:

GFS
HWRF
CMC
JMA

Models that don't develop:

ECMWF
UKMET
NAVGEM

What camp would you put your money on?

Very hard to go against the Euro but it has had a few problems this year so far...if the GFS keeps showing development and keeps bringing the time frame in then I think the euro may come around in a few days.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

With a vigorous wave in this position at this time of the year with at least average conditions I think the odds are better then not that the wave develops at some point. For that reason I go with the GFS and bet that the Euro comes on board at some point.

[USTropics]

12z ensemble probability of TC genesis:

[Steve]

Yeah, I think they're all off, but I think it's better than even money 99 develops at least by the end of next weekend or possibly comes back again if it develops early and fades. Models showing get this pretty far west but probably not west enough yet. Unless Fiona was strong and stalled, I think a big ridge builds in behind the recurve. Most likely U.S. impacts this far out in my opinion would seem to be Florida, lower SE Atlantic coast, mid-Atlantic/northeast, southern Gulf, recurve in that order +/-

We will see.

[p1nheadlarry]

Yeah, I think they're all off, but I think it's better than even money 99 develops at least by the end of next weekend or possibly comes back again if it develops early and fades. Models showing get this pretty far west but probably not west enough yet. Unless Fiona was strong and stalled, I think a big ridge builds in behind the recurve. Most likely U.S. impacts this far out in my opinion would seem to be Florida, lower SE Atlantic coast, mid-Atlantic/northeast, southern Gulf, recurve in that order +/-

We will see.

If the GFS has it right, with a TD, maybe TS approaching the Antilles, and the ridging isn't underestimated, FL and the SE coast are in the path. But climatology in late August favors a coastal hugger, if ridging is strong enough, west possibly through the gulf. Like you say, it's a waiting game.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766766872255565824




May explain some of the GFS/ECMWF differences.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What did the early runs of the gfs show with Fiona? Hurricane or struggling weak system? Euro as well?