ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

What did the early runs of the gfs show with Fiona? Hurricane or struggling weak system? Euro as well?

GFS did miss Fiona at 144 hours out:

This is the run from 0z August 13th:

[SouthFLTropics]

What did the early runs of the gfs show with Fiona? Hurricane or struggling weak system? Euro as well?

GFS did miss Fiona at 144 hours out:

This is the run from 0z August 13th:

That's the Euro...not GFS

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766766872255565824




May explain some of the GFS/ECMWF differences.

Maybe but the difference is more towards the long range, the GFS still has MJO at Phase 6 through the next 7 days.

[gatorcane]

What did the early runs of the gfs show with Fiona? Hurricane or struggling weak system? Euro as well?

Good question. GFS did have a couple of runs that showed Fiona getting quite strong in it's long-range guidance. I don't recall the Euro ever showing Fiona getting this strong.

For example take a look at the GFS run for Fiona from 3 days ago and look how strong it has it (969MB on High res)

[Hurricaneman]

i

What did the early runs of the gfs show with Fiona? Hurricane or struggling weak system? Euro as well?

Good question. GFS did have a couple of runs that showed Fiona getting quite strong in it's long-range guidance. I don't recall the Euro ever showing Fiona getting this strong.

For example take a look at the GFS run for Fiona from 3 days ago and look how strong it has it (969MB on High res)

It didn't even show this feature so it shows you something can sneak up on you

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks gator, that's what I was wondering. If it was showing future Fiona as a hurricane while it was an invest or depression. Haven't had much time to pay much attention to the tropics this week due to the floods down here.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/766827435413221376

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking the 0zGFS is going to shift a bit towards the ensembles of the 18z which would be a shift south towards Melbourne

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[weathaguyry]

It appears that the 0z GFS is being loaded onto tropical tidbits now, it should be fully available soon

[CrazyC83]

I know it is a long way out, but a nerve-wracking week may be in store...

[Bocadude85]

So far 0Z GFS is similar to the 18z run.

[SeGaBob]

I bet it shifts east this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

I bet it shifts east this run.

I concur...a few east shifts and then back west over the next few runs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Weaker this run it looks like.

[Bocadude85]

I bet it shifts east this run.

So far is weaker and a tad further south then the 18Z...might be coming around to the Euro's solution.

[WeatherEmperor]

At 90hrs just a little bit weaker than 18z. Same path so far

[Kingarabian]

850 vort looks weaker than the 18z run. A lot like the Euro.

[Siker]

Much less organized as it's nearing the Cairbbean at 90 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

Its going to struggle to develop until tuesday IMO due to the shear its running into looking at the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going to bet it caves to the Euro this run.